Division Rankings: Weekend races bring focus to Kentucky Derby

This week I finally dive into the Kentucky Derby discussion as we now are a little over five weeks away from the first Saturday in May.

With two Grade 1 races on tap this weekend, the Arkansas Derby and Florida Derby, we should find out more about several horses running in these two events.

I’m often asked about my 3-year-old rankings below as they relate to the Kentucky Derby. The rankings below are not Kentucky Derby rankings, they are what the title of the piece is, divisional rankings. But this is Kentucky Derby season and everyone wants Kentucky Derby rankings, or at the very least, Kentucky Derby thoughts.

That’s what you get this week as the 3-year-old males are in the spotlight. But before I dive into my thoughts on this weekend’s races and the division overall, let's take a look at this week's updated Division Rankings.

Older dirt males

1. Art Collector. Couldn't back up his January Pegasus World Cup (G1) win in last weekend's New Orleans Classic (G2) where he finished runner-up to West Will Power. Do I believe he will be ranked in this spot by year's end? No. But there really is no other we can place up here right now, is there?

2. Stilleto Boy. Has run strong in two starts this season. After a third-place finish in the Pegasus World Cup, he scored a popular win in a very deep Santa Anita Handicap (G1). Being a gelding, his fan base will grow, and barring injury, he should be around for awhile.

3. Last Samurai. Started his season off with a fourth-place finish behind Art Collector in the Pegasus but has won both of his starts since, the Razorback (G3) and Essex (G3) at Oaklawn Park. He was flattered last weekend as the horse he beat in the Razorback, West Will Power, beat Art Collector in the New Orleans Classic (G2).

4. West Will Power. Easy winner over Art Collector in last weekend's New Orleans Classic. As with Art Collector, I'm going to need to see him put together starts like that before we can take him seriously in this division. Resides here for now.

5. Country Grammer. After a close runner-up in the Saudi Cup (G1) he disappointed as the favorite in the Dubai World Cup (G1), finishing up the track.

Next 5: Cody's Wish, Taiba, Defunded, Endorsed, Proxy.

Older dirt females

1. Secret Oath. Rested and refreshed, this gal looked better than ever in the Azeri (G2) at Oaklawn with a facile win over Clairiere. Remember, she was atop her division last year for the better part of five months.
2. A Mo Reay. A new player in this division, this daughter of Uncle Mo has certainly matured from age 3 to 4. Last season she was off the board in her only graded-stakes start and had minimal success in listed stakes. This season she is unbeaten in two starts, the Bayakoa (G3) at Oaklawn and the Beholder Mile (G1) by a head last out at Santa Anita.

3. Clairiere. Runner-up to Secret Oath in the Azeri, she didn't have a clean trip and lost ground because of it. Will get a chance to avenge this defeat in next month's Apple Blosson (G1).

4. Nest. Overmatched in the Breeders' Cup Distaff when off the board, finishing fourth. But she won a trio of Grade 1 events in 2022 and was crowned with the Eclipse as the top 3-year-old filly.

5. Search Results. Well beaten in the Breeder's Cup Distaff, she still had a great season, placing in all of her starts but one.

Next 5: Echo Zulu, Society, Matareya, Classy Edition, Fun to Dream.
3-year-old males

1. Forte. Looked very strong in his 3-year-old debut in the Fountain of Youth (G1) at Gulfstream. There doesn't seem to be a chink in his armor at the moment, but is it this easy? Not in my opinion. I think his best distances will be up to nine furlongs, so stretching out to 10 furlongs for races such as the Kentucky Derby would be a question mark for me. Will be the heavy favorite in the Florida Derby against a field that on paper is overmatched.
2. Tapit Trice. Very interesting horse. Was a facile winner of the Tampa Bay Derby (G3) in his first stakes start. He is bred to run all day. Looks to me like a Belmont horse, but I think the jury is still out on his Kentucky Derby chances. His next start, which likely will come in the Blue Grass (G1) at Keeneland, should tell us much more about this son of Tapit. The arrow is definitely pointing upward.
3. Practical Move. The San Felipe (G2) winner was super impressive, but as far as Kentucky Derby contenders go, I will look elsewhere. I can't envision him relishing the 10 furlongs in Louisville given his pedigree. He is now 3-for-6 on his career, never finishing off the board. 4. Kingsbarns. Another interesting addition. Won the Louisiana Derby (G2) in his first stakes start last weekend. Overall this son of Uncle Mo is 3-for-3 on his career, but he's very light in experience when it comes to his Kentucky Derby chances.

5. Angel of Empire. I bumped this guy up because, well, I think he is one of the top 3-year-old males and should win the Arkansas Derby this weekend. Now, I could have egg on my face by Saturday night with my thoughts here, but that's part of this game. He won the Risen Star (G2) last time out.
Next 9: Disarm, Arabian Knight, Reincarnate, Two Phil's, Confidence Game, Rocket Can, National Treasure, Newgate, Red Route One.

3-year-old females

1. Faiza. Unbeaten in four career starts, she won again last out in the Santa Ysabel Stakes (G3). She moves to the top of this division for now based on her two graded-stakes wins already this season.
2. Wonder Wheel. Made her 3-year-old debut in Tampa Bay in the listed Suncoast Stakes and didn't run poorly when finishing a close runner-up to 38-1 long-shot winner Dreaming of Snow. Still, the result was disappointing no matter how you slice it. Super impressive last season at age 2, capping off her championship season in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies after closing strong to win going away. 3. Pretty Mischievous. Disappointing runner-up finish to Southlawn in the Fair Grounds Oaks (G2). Before that effort she was impressive in the Rachel Alexandra (G2). Has taken a step forward from age 2 to 3 and remains here in this spot. 5. And Tell Me Nolies. Made her 3-year-old debut March 5 against Faiza and ran well when runner-up. Remember, this gal won a Grade 1 last season at age 2. 4. Southlawn. Super impressive in the Fair Grounds Oaks (G2) where she defeated Pretty Mischievous. Prior to that race she hadn't done much, going 2-for-6 and finishing off the board in four of her five starts at age 2. Next 5: Wet Paint, Red Carpet Ready, Julia Shining, The Aly's Look, Pride of the Nile.

Turf males

1. Modern Games. I know. I am breaking all of my rules. I am ranking a horse who hasn't run yet this year and is based overseas. But what else am I supposed to do here with this division, which again appears to lack a horse who can stand out? This guy did win the Eclipse last season and will run at Keeneland next month in the Makers Mark Mile (G1).

2. Casa Creed. Now a 7-year-old, but he is in the best form of his career. He ran lights out when narrowly missing overseas in Saudi Arabia in the Turf Sprint (G3) and finishing second. The Saudi race was his first start this season.

3. Gold Phoenix. Super impressive last out winning the Kilroe Mile (G1). He has finished off the board only once in 11 career starts and is a major player in this division, in my opinion.

4. Hong Kong Harry. Simply didn't fire in the Kilroe Mile (G1) as the heavy favorite, finishing fourth. Was 5-for-6 last season with three graded-stakes wins. He still should contend in this division.

5. Atone. So much for his time at the top. He finished dead last in the Muniz Memorial Classic presented by Horse Racing Nation (G2). The Pegasus World Cup Turf (G1) winner gets one mulligan to remain here in the top five.

Next 5: Emmanuel, Spooky Channel, Santin, Highland Chief, Value Engineering.

Turf females

1. War Like Goddess. Robbed of an Eclipse in 2021, she came very close in 2022 again but Regal Glory was the deserved winner. Back again in 2023, could the third time be the charm? An Eclipse contender again. Likely will make her 2023 debut at Keeneland in either the Elkhorn (G2) against males on April 22 or the Bewitch (G3) against fellow females six days later. Both races are at 12 furlongs.

2. In Italian. Ran well when runner-up in the Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf. Before that effort, she scored her second Grade 1 win in a row in the First Lady at Keeneland. Working steadily now for a return.

3. Queen Goddess. The Pegasus Filly & Mare Turf (G3) winner looks to be a serious contender this year in this division. She has won four graded stakes.

4. Shantisara. Looked very good winning the Hillsborough (G2) at Tampa Bay Downs a couple weeks back, and before that she was runner-up to Queen Goddess in the Pegasus. This gal is a Grade 1 winner and a player in this division.

5. Bleecker Street. Suffered the first loss of her career last time out in the Diana (G1) last summer after starting her career 7-for-7. She put in her run from the back but had too much to do when finishing third. Back in training now and eying a spring comeback.

Next 5: Spendarella, Ballet Dancing, Caravel, Faith in Humanity, Quattroelle.

Male sprinters

1. Elite Power. Certainly showed he is the best in the world now sprinting on the dirt. Overpowered the Riyadh Dirt Sprint (G3) field. Will come back to the states to run in major races and build a nice Eclipse-worthy resume.

2. Sibelius. Surprise winner of the Dubai Golden Shaheen (G1), defeating Gunite, among others. Prior to that this guy won the listed Pelican Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs. Won his first graded stakes in late December at Gulfstream in the Mr. Prospector (G3).

3. Gunite. Disappointed somewhat in last week's Golden Shaheen when 3rd as the favorite. Previous to that he was simply the best of the rest when runner-up to Elite Power in Saudi Arabia. 

4. Cody's Wish. Came on late at the end of last season, winning the Forego (G1) at Saratoga and narrowly winning the Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile over Cyberknife. Will drop soon if he doesn't run.

5. Repo Rocks. Has won both of his 2023 starts, the Toboggan (G3) and the Stymie, a listed stakes, both at Aqueduct.

Next 5: American Theorem, Spirit of Makena, Laurel River, Tejano Twist, Little Vic.

Arkansas and Florida derbies stand on their own

Whenever I see or hear the term “Kentucky Derby prep” as it relates to Grade 1 races for 3-year-old males in the weeks leading up to the Kentucky Derby, I somewhat cringe. It’s funny, the term “Derby prep” was never used as it relates to races such as these years ago. This is a fad that started only in the last couple of decades. Perusing the Daily Racing Form from years past, you never read about races such as the Florida Derby or Arkansas Derby being called a Kentucky Derby prep. 

The term “prep” is convenient to write and easy to use, but these races stand on their own, with all entrants cranked to give their best. With over $1 million in purse money for this weekend’s Arkansas and Florida Derbies, you can be sure that these horses are cranked 100 percent and ready to win. Don’t believe otherwise. After all, the entire point of this game is to make money, and this weekend a ton of money is on the line. 

In the Arkansas Derby we have an eclectic field.

The favorite is the California-based is Reincarnate, ranked No. 8 in his division above. He won the Sham (G3) at Santa Anita and then came to Oaklawn for his last start, the Rebel (G2), where he finished third in the slop. I consider Reincarnate an underlay this weekend, and it would surprise me if he won.

We also have Angel of Empire (ranked No. 5) who won last out at the Fair Grounds in the Risen Star (G2). Angel of Empire is my pick to win this weekend and is on my short list of Kentucky Derby contenders. I like the No. 14-ranked Red Route One, but he needs a good performance this weekend to move on to the Kentucky Derby.

What about Rocket Can? he’s back again in his third major graded stakes this season. He won the Holy Bull (G3) at Gulfstream and then was runner-up to Forte in the Fountain of Youth (G2) in early March. Having Rocket Can in this race helps because it will give us information as it relates to Forte. If Rocket Can runs well, it moves Forte up even more. But if Rocket Can runs poorly, what then?

Speaking of Forte, he goes as the prohibitive favorite in the Florida Derby. Never mind his outside post, it can’t be used as an excuse if he loses. A surprising 11 other horses entered to face the No.1 ranked Forte. But let’s be honest here, Forte towers over this field on paper, and if he is what everyone believes, he should win this race. Anything less than a win is a huge disappointment for his supporters.

Regarding his Kentucky Derby chances, I like Forte, but he is not on my shortlist. I just think 10 furlongs might be just out of his wheelhouse. Still, he is the clear No. 1 in these rankings, and that likely won’t change even if he somehow loses this weekend.

Others on my Kentucky Derby shortlist who are not in action this weekend? Disarm (ranked No. 6), Tapit Trice (No. 2), and the Japanese horse, Derma Sotogake. More on these in the coming weeks.