Division rankings: Japan poised for Breeders' Cup Classic assault

Heading down a path I haven’t gone down before, this week I am going to take a look at a couple of horse not ranked below, but who could greatly impact the Breeders’ Cup day and the Eclipse Award aspirations of others ranked below. 

Though not ranked, Derma Sotogake and Ushba Tesoro will represent Japan in this year’s Breeders’ Cup Classic. Given Japan’s recent success on the world stage, and in the Breeders’ Cup, these two have to be given strong consideration. 

Ushba Tesoro won the Dubai World Cup (G1) earlier this season and made his first start since that historic triumph a few days ago in a stakes race run at the about 1 1/8 miles on the dirt at Funabashi Racecourse in Japan, posting an easy win. 

Derma Sotogake hasn’t run since his sixth place finish in the Kentucky Derby where he finished eight lengths behind the winner, Mage. Prior to that he won the UAE Derby (G2).

Before I dive into these two, and examine what if any impact they will have on the Breeders’ Cup Classic, let's take a look at this week's updated division rankings.

Older dirt males

1. Cody's Wish. In a historically weak season for this division, what other horse can reside here at this point? The answer is none. This guy controls his Eclipse fate no matter what any other in this division does for the remainder of the season. Despite his setback in the Whitney (G1), he maintains his position at the top because none of the others boasts a resume strong enough to challenge him. As expected, his distance limitations were exposed and he will be back sprinting next out in the Vosburgh (G2) this weekend. Should he pass that test, he will set his sights on securing victory in the Breeders' Cup Mile for the second consecutive year. Achieving that feat would win the Eclipse award in this division.

2. White Abarrio. It speaks volumes about this division when I'm ranking a horse this high despite his having only one stakes win in his last nine starts spanning 16 months. His impressive victory in the Whitney came under the tutelage of his new trainer, Rick Dutrow Jr., who has returned to the scene after a 10-year suspension due to numerous medication and administrative violations. Notably, White Abarrio has delivered career-best speed figures in his two outings since joining Dutrow's stable. Is this merely a coincidence? Now, White Abarrio will focus his preparations on the Breeders' Cup Classic. Can he secure an Eclipse award with just two stakes wins? My answer is no. Given that resume, he won't receive my vote. He will be a big underlay and long shot at Santa Anita, in my opinion.

3. Zandon. He hasn't won this year in three starts, but he shows up every time and runs his race. He has finished runner-up three times in graded stakes, the last two being the Met Mile and the Whitney, both Grade 1s. With the division in the state it is, he deserves this spot for now. He will try and get a win this weekend in the Woodward (G2).

4. Proxy. This guy has two graded-stakes wins from six starts this year, and ran well, almost overcoming a ridiculously slow pace in the Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1) last out when losing by a nose. So by default, he sits here at No. 4. Will likely run next in the Breeders' Cup Classic and be a long shot.

5. Bright Future. The winner of the JCGC, he was allowed to set tepid fractions that no doubt helped him in his first stakes win. If they do indeed run in the Breeders' Cup Classic he, too, has little chance to come away with the win, in my opinion.

Next 5: Rattle N Roll, Smile Happy, Slow Down Andy, Defunded, Skippylongstocking

Older dirt females

1. Clairiere. Was beaten with no excuses two back by Nest and then last out she ran a clunker in the slop in the Personal Ensign (G1) at Saratoga. She maintains this top spot because she has run in and won several big events this season. What happens in the prior six months matters to me in this sport, and Clairiere has shown up for all of the previous big events this division had to offer this year, winning two Grade 1s, the most of any in this division. She still controls her own Eclipse fate and will train up to the Breeders' Cup Distaff.

2. Idiomatic. The Personal Ensign winner is on a roll now, winning her last three starts, all stakes. Overall she is six for seven on the season and has put herself in serious contention for the Eclipse. Should run next in the Spinster (G1) on Oct. 8 at Keeneland.

3. Adare Manor. The best of the west added another big win in the Clement Hirsch (G1). Now four of five on the season, she probably will have one more start before the Breeders' Cup Distaff at her home base of Santa Anita. No matter what happens with the top two, if this gal wins the Breeders' Cup Distaff, the Eclipse will be hers. She is set to return on Sunday in the Zenyatta (G1) at Santa Anita.

4. Secret Oath. The winner of the Azeri (G2) earlier this season, she has been runner-up in three Grade 1 events in 2023, including the Personal Ensign last out. She will run next in the Spinster (G1) at Keeneland.

5. Nest. Based on resume alone for this season, Nest really doesn't belong this high in the rankings, but I will give her the benefit of doubt. She ran great in her return to the races two back in the Shuvee (G2), where she got the jump on her rival Clairiere and recorded a facile two-length win. But last out in the Personal Ensign she finished third. Sitting on the bench for the first half of the season will cost Nest the Eclipse in 2023. She too will head to Keeneland for her next start in the Spinster.

Next 5: Search Results, Played Hard, Fun to Dream, Pauline's Pearl, A Mo Reay.

3-year-old males

1. Arcangelo. He was super impressive in the Travers (G1), defeating a quality field. Validating his Belmont win was critical, and he did that and more. Now he will train up to the Breeders' Cup Classic. He will face an even stiffer test at Santa Anita, but a win in the Classic will secure not only the Eclipse in this division, but horse of the year.

2. Arabian Knight. In February this guy was among the favorites for the Kentucky Derby. After his Southwest Stakes (G3) win, he was put on the shelf and didn't return until the Haskell (G1) in July, where he finished third. He obviously needed the race. Last out he was all heart in winning the Pacific Classic (G1) over older and fellow 3-year-olds. He also will train up to the Breeders' Cup Classic run over his home track of Santa Anita. He would be the horse to beat and should get even better in his third start off that layoff. 

3. Geaux Rocket Ride. Was narrowly defeated in the Pacific Classic, but he lost nothing in defeat. the Haskell winner will be one of the horses to beat in the Breeders' Cup Classic. He too will train up to the race.

4. Forte. Disappointed in the Travers (G1), finishing fourth, beaten eight lengths. No way to spin the loss, no excuses. Considering that was his first subpar race we have seen in over a year, I will give him a mulligan. He will train up to the Breeders' Cup Classic as well and will be a horse you can't discount.

5. Mage. Finished last in the Travers, but he gets a mulligan off of that effort considering what he has done prior. He's also expected to train up to the Breeders' Cup Classic, where a win there would garner him the Eclipse in this division.

Next 5: Angel of Empire, National Treasure, Saudi Crown, Disarm, Practical Move.

3-year-old females

1. Pretty Mischievous. She nearly caught the loose on the lead winner of the Cotillion (G1), Ceiling Crusher, but had to settle for the runner-up spot. She didn't lose much luster and has this Eclipse sewn up in my opinion. She won the Acorn (G1) and the Kentucky Oaks (G1). 

2. Wet Paint. She was runner-up in the Alabama (G1) won by the loose-on-the-lead Randomized. Previously she got the job done in the Coaching Club American Oaks (G1), defeating four others. I still believe she is among the best in this division. Stuck behind loose-on-the lead types two of the last three races. I would have liked to see her at Parx this weekend as she is still in this Eclipse race.

3. Randomized. She won her first graded race when wiring the Alabama. In her previous attempt in a graded stakes she was sixth in the Acorn on Belmont Stakes day. She'll need to win it again before she moves up. Will run against older in the Beldame (G2) in her next start.

4. Ceiling Crusher. Won the Cotillion (G1) last out securing her first Grade 1 win. Prior to the Cotillion she won the Torrey Pines (G3) at Del Mar. She's not Breeders' Cup nominated and is unlikely to run in the Distaff.

5. Window Shopping. Defeated The Alys Look to win the Summertime Oaks (G2) last out, and before that she was third in Faiza's Santa Anita Oaks (G1). Connections tried her on the grass last time out in the Del Mar Oaks (G1), where she finished sixth.

Next 5: Defining Purpose, Faiza, Hoosier Philly, Dorth Vader, Sacred Wish.

Turf males

1. Up to the Mark. He was superb last out winning the Manhattan (G1) at Belmont Park, giving him two Grade 1 wins on this season, a rarity for this division the last few years. But that was in June. The jury is out, but he is back working again, so perhaps we'll see him again soon. If we are being honest, the fields he has beaten were suspect, and earlier this season he was soundly defeated when third in the Makers Mark Mile (G1).

2. Casa Creed. Closed stoutly last out in the Fourstardave (G1) to defeat Annapolis in a really impressive effort. A 7-year-old, he is in the best form of his career after winning his last two starts and could be a contender later this year in the Breeders' Cup Mile if he maintains this form. He will train up to that race.

3. Bolshoi Ballet. Ran them off their feet in the Sword Dancer (G1) last time out, and that alone bumps him this high, considering the state of this division. Before the Sword Dancer he was winless in four starts overseas.

4. Gold Phoenix. Remember this guy? He was ranked higher than this in March but was then off the board in his next two starts. Well, he is back in top form, having won his last two graded stakes, the Eddie Read (G2) and Del Mar Handicap (G2). He will be one of our best hopes in the Breeders' Cup Turf this fall.

5. Exaulted. He was a tough-luck runner-up last out in the Del Mar Mile (G2), but before that he was four for four since being moved to the grass from the dirt. Won the Shoemaker Mile (G1) earlier this season and is a Breeders' Cup Mile contender.

Next 5: Master of the Seas, Set Piece, Chez Pierre, Annapolis, Du Jour.

Turf females

1. In Italian. She was stunned last time out, tasting defeat for the first time in over a year to another in this division. Her narrow runner-up finish in the Diana (G1) won't knock her off the top spot here, and that likely will be the last time she runs nine furlongs. Look for her to run shorter as she charts a course for a return engagement in the Breeders' Cup Mile.

2. Whitebeam. She upset In Italian in the Diana for her first Grade 1 win and second graded-stakes victory overall. Before the Diana she won the Gallorette (G3) on Preakness day at Pimlico. Was flattered by Fev Rover's Beverly D. (G1) win as that one finished third in the Diana. Will make her next start at Keeneland in the First Lady (G1).

3. War Like Goddess. She is coming off another loss, the first time she has been defeated in back-to-back races in her 16-race career. It wasn't a bad effort, finishing runner-up in the Glens Falls (G2) and losing by a neck. But if we are being fair, the War Like Goddess of old would have beaten that bunch handily. I believe she has lost a step or two now, but she returns this weekend against the boy's in the Joe Hirsch (G1), a race she won a year ago.

4. Fev Rover. Mare impressed in the Beverly D. (G1) for her second win this season. Previous to that, she was third to Whitebeam and In Italian in the Diana. Won the Nassau Stakes (G2) two starts back.

5. Caravel. Defeated last out when facing males in the Troy Stakes (G3) at Saratoga, which was run on a soft turf because of the rain. Both of her prior graded-stakes wins this season have come over males, so this last loss was a disappointment.

Next 5: Moira, Marketsegmentation, McKulick, Didia, Macadamia

Male sprinters

1. Elite Power. Reigning sprint champ was upset by Gunite in the Forego (G1) after the latter again was allowed to get away with slow fractions. He's still the best in this division by a wide margin, he will head to the Breeders' Cup Sprint with an eye on a repeat win and another Eclipse. But he's in the same boat as Jackie's Warrior last year, when the latter dominated this division for three-quarters of the season only to lose the Eclipse because of late-season voting bias. He has defeated Gunite in two of their three meetings this season.

2. Gunite. Colt was defeated last weekend when stretching out to a mile in the Parx Dirt Mile, finishing runner-up. Defeated Elite Power in a major upset in the Forego (G1) previously, but that was his first graded stakes win this season. 

3. Cody's Wish. Do we keep him ranked down here with the sprinters? Sure we do. He has one Grade 1 sprint race win this year, the Churchill Downs Stakes (G1), and after his loss in the Whitney will cut back to shorter distances. The Vosburgh (G2) is up next. Though it will never happen, an Elite Power vs. Cody's Wish Breeders' Cup Sprint would steal the show. 

4. The Chosen Vron. He won the Bing Crosby (G1) last out for his eighth straight win, and the previous seven wins all were listed stakes. This California-bred gelding loves sprinting and belongs here for now.

5. Anarchist. He won the Pat O'Brien (G2) after previously finishing runner-up to The Chosen Vron in the Bing Crosby. This guy has put together a good record this year, running eight times and never finishing worse than second. Has two graded-stakes wins in 2023.

Next 5: Sibelius, Repo Rocks, Doppelganger, Spirit of Makena, Skelly

Female sprinters

1. Echo Zulu. Folks, this isn't hyperbole. Though her resume is somewhat light, I believe this is the best female sprinter we have seen in over 20 years. She is clearly the fastest speed-figure wise, and she dominated last year's Eclipse winner, Goodnight Olive, in the Ballerina (G1) last out. Now her connections likely will target the Breeders' Cup Sprint against the males. No sprinter, male or female, has run as fast as this gal in 2023. She's three for three this season, and she hasn't been tested.

2. Goodnight Olive. She ran her race in the Ballerina but faced a monster in Echo Zulu. The Eclipse winner from last season started her season with a win in the Madison (G1) at Keeneland. Will train up to the Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint.

3. Matareya. Filly won the Derby City Distaff two starts back, defeating Goodnight Olive. Last time out she finished third in the Ballerina. Is capable of big efforts.

4. Society. She rebounded from a rough start to her season with a 10-length win over Matareya in the Chicago Stakes (G3). Before that she was ninth in the La Troienne (G1) and third in the Madison (G1). Perhaps she is a player in this division? Not sure. She won the listed Pink Ribbon Stakes at Charles Town last time out.

5. Wicked Halo. Runner-up again in the Bed o' Roses (G2) earlier this year to Goodnight Olive, she then won a listed stakes at Ellis Park. Finished third last out in the listed Open Mind Stakes at Churchill Downs.

Next 5: Frank's Rockette, Fun to Dream, Caramel Swirl, Maryquitecontrary, Eda

2-year-old males

1. Prince of Monaco. He won the Del Mar Futurity (G3) last week to stay unbeaten in three starts. He likely will be the Breeders' Cup Juvenile favorite on his home track of Santa Anita, but I am of the opinion he will be an underlay and fired his best shot in this last race. He also looked a little off to me on the right side when switching leads in the stretch.

2. Nutella Fella. He won the Hopeful (G1) last out at 54-1 odds. Two for two so far in his career.

3. Timberlake. The beaten favorite in the Hopeful, he finished runner-up to Nutella Fella.

4. Muth. This guy was the favorite for the Hopeful but was scratched and will run next in the American Pharoah (G1) on Oct. 7 at Santa Anita.
5. Noted. The Sapling winner certainly has the connections, Todd Pletcher and Mike Repole. He is two for three on his career.
Next 5: Mirahmadi, The Wine Steward, West Saratoga, Gold Sweep, Pirate. 

2-year-old females

1. Brightwork. She defeated the highly regarded Ways and Means last out in the Spinaway (G1) and has four wins already in her career. This unbeaten gal won the Adironack (G3) before the Spinaway. She will run next in Keeneland's Alcibiades (G1) on Oct. 6.

2. Tamara. This daughter of Beholder won the Del Mar Debutante (G1) rather easily for her second win in as many starts. She no doubt gets a bump in her reputation given her pedigree and likely will be the favorite in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies.

3. Ways and Means. The heavy favorite in the Spinaway (G1) after winning her maiden race impressively, she was defeated by Brightwork. Now done racing this season due to a chipped ankle.

4. Wonder Ride. She closed well to finish third in the Spinaway and  won her only previous race, a maiden event at Saratoga.

5. Here U Come Again. This Brad Cox-trained daughter of Liam's Map was runner-up to Brightwork in the Adirondack (G3) after breaking her maiden at Ellis Park.
Next 5: VV's Dream, Dreamfyre, Laurent, Saratoga Secret, Dua.

Take Ushba Tesoro and Derma Sotogake seriously

In the past, I would often dismiss the idea of overseas horses competing in Breeders' Cup dirt races. However, times are evolving, and the horses arriving from Japan now possess the breeding and talent necessary to challenge the top-tier dirt horses in the United States. 

You aren’t convinced? Japan’s Marche Lorraine stunned the racing world two years ago by winning the Breeders’ Cup Distaff at 42-1 odds, and this season Japan’s Ushba Tesoro stunned the Dubai World Cup field with a facile 2 3/4-length victory. The 6-year-old, who was dead last on the stretch turn, responded with a devastating turn of foot to pass them all. Left in his wake was the  2022 Dubai World Cup winner, Country Grammer, who finished seventh. 

Ushba Tesoro is a different horse since being switched to dirt in April of 2022. He has now made seven starts in the dirt and has won six of them. He posted four straight wins at home in Japan, including the Group 1 Tokyo Daishoten at Oi Racecourse prior to his World Cup triumph. Now he sets his sights on another upset in the Breeders’ Cup Classic. 

Derma Sotogake doesn’t posses the type of resume Ushba Tesora does, but he did finish well in the Kentucky Derby and finished ahead of several good 3-year-old males. 

Given the state of our older male division, Ushba Tesoro has to be considered the best of the older horses trying the Classic, and if he reproduces his Dubai World Cup form, one could argue that he may end up in the Breeders’ Cup Classic winners circle. 

While most of the attention will be on the 3-year-olds such as Arcangelo, Forte, Arabian Knight, and Geaux Rocket Ride in the Breeders’ Cup Classic, it appears to me that this year’s renewal is ripe for an upset. 

It was 30 years ago that Arcangues shocked the world with his Classic win at 133-1 odds after shipping in from overseas. While there won’t be a winner with those odds this year, or likely ever again, the 2023 Classic could very well see another shipper from overseas come away with the win. 

Japan is a serious player now on the world stage, so don’t sell either of these two horses short.