Division Rankings: Finding top trio in 3-year-old male race

The battle lines are drawn, and when the dust settles I expect the 3-year-old male Eclipse Award winner to come from one of a trio of stars who made this year’s Triple Crown series great theater. 

It is no exaggeration in writing that this year’s Triple Crown series was one of the more memorable we have seen in past dozen years, especially when taking into account we had three different winners. 

Before I take a look at which three horses I expect to compete for the divisional Eclipse – and possibly Horse of the Year – let us take a look at this week’s updated rankings:

Older dirt males

1. Silver State. The Met Mile (G1) winner is back working and is targeting the Whitney (G1) on Aug. 7 at Saratoga. He has done far more than any other in this division so far in 2021, and is a winner of four stakes races already this year. He won the Oaklawn Handicap (G2) prior to his win in the Met and has won his last six races dating back to last fall.

2. Maxfield. Got the job done in last weekend's Stephen Foster (G2) defeating Warrior's Charge by a little over three lengths. His connections have picked their spots with this son of Street Sense, and he has rewarded them with three graded-stakes wins this season coming over weak fields. Now we are more than halfway through the season and Maxfield has yet to pocket a Grade 1 win. If he wants to contend for an Eclipse, the time to move is now. He could run next in the Whitney at Saratoga, where a win over Silver State would move him to the top.

3. Mystic Guide. Will start this weekend in the Suburban (G2) and face the horse that beat him in a historically light Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1) last fall, Happy Saver. Both Mystic Guide and Happy Saver still have much to prove to me as neither has defeated a North American Grade 1 winner. Even if Mystic Guide wins this weekend it will not be enough to reclaim the No. 1 spot from Silver State.

4. By My Standards. Back in the top half of this division, this guy is as honest as they come. Runner-up to Silver State in the Met Mile, he is still searching for his first Grade 1 triumph. Won the Oaklawn Mile in his only other start this season. Will point toward the Whitney later this summer.

5. Country Grammer. The Hollywood Gold Cup (G1) winner has been transferred from previous trainer Bob Baffert to his new trainer, Todd Pletcher. He had run two strong races with his rival, Royal Ship, in California but now he will get a chance to reach the top of his division with an expected next start in the Whitney at Saratoga.

Next 5: Royal Ship, Knicks Go, Idol, Happy Saver, Express Train.

Older dirt females

1. Letruska. Was dominant again in her win in last weekend's Fleur de Lis (G2) at Churchill Downs and has given herself a large lead in this division. A Grade 1 winner in both the U.S. and Mexico, she is 15-for-20 in her career. Although the Personal Ensign (G1) at the end of August at Saratoga is being mentioned as her next start, don't be surprised to see her run before then, maybe in the Shuvee (G3) on July 25 to take on Swiss Skydiver

2. Shedaresthedevil. Was no match for Letruska in the Phipps and was even passed near the wire for the runner-up spot after chasing Letruska throughout. Previously this gal was much the best in the La Troienne Stakes (G1) at Churchill Downs, defeating a good field of older females. Will now head west to prepare for the Breeders' Cup at Del Mar with her next start scheduled to be the Clement L. Hirsch (G1) on Aug. 1 at Del Mar.

3. Monomoy Girl. Was gallant to the finish in the Apple Blossom (G1) but came up a nose short. Clearly still on top of her game, something I wondered about heading into this last race. She was sent to the sidelines with muscle strains and hamstring soreness. Could be back later this summer but might drop from this spot in the coming weeks.

4. Swiss Skydiver. Scratched from the Ogden Phipps because of a fever, she is now pointing for the Shuvee at Saratoga on July 25. Her last start resulted in a seven-length defeat in the Apple Blossom when finishing third. Before that, she was stellar in her Beholder Mile (G1) win at Santa Anita. Has not lost two races in a row in nearly 18 months.

5. As Time Goes By. Game winner of the Santa Maria (G2) last out, she previously routed the Santa Margarita (G2) field. Her only loss this year was a runner-up finish to Swiss Skydiver in the Beholder Mile. Will have home-court advantage come Breeders' Cup time. Will target the Clement L. Hirsch Stakes on Aug. 1 at Del Mar.

Next 5: Bonny South, Envoutante, Spice is Nice, Antoinette, Valiance.

3-year-old males

1. Essential Quality. His Belmont win was sensational, and it separates him from several others. Though the Belmont was Essential Quality's first Grade 1 win of the season, he has won two other graded stakes in 2021. There was no Triple Crown on the line in the Belmont, but it proved to be one of the more exciting and satisfying Belmonts we have seen in the last 20 years. Will point for the Travers (G1) at Saratoga, with a likely prep in the Jim Dandy (G2). Could have a huge second half of season.

2. Hot Rod Charlie. Simply put, his Belmont runner-up finish was extraordinary. On the lead from the start, his 22.78 was the fastest opening quarter-mile ever recorded in the Belmont Stakes. His 46.49 opening half-mile was not only the second-fastest since Secretariat in 1973, but the second-fastest ever recorded in the Belmont Stakes. Showing heart in the stretch, he finally gave way in deep stretch, finishing a little over a length behind Essential Quality. The margin back to Rombauer in third place was more than 11 lengths. The show these top two put on will be remembered for a very long time. Connections have mentioned several major races as possible landing spots for his next start, including the Haskell Stakes (G1), where he would meet several others ranked below.

3. Medina Spirit. Did not run poorly in his Preakness loss, a third-place finish behind the winner, Rombauer. Beaten a little over five lengths, the quick middle fractions that he was forced to set by Midnight Bourbon ended up costing them both the race as Rombauer pounced on both of them in the stretch. His next start is up in the air.

4. Rombauer. The Preakness winner had no excuses in the Belmont when finishing a far-back third. After edging Known Agenda for the show spot, he will regroup for this next start. May train up to the Travers, according to his connections.

5. Mandaloun. Got the job done in the recent Pegasus at Monmouth, but that type of effort will get him nowhere in next month's Haskell. Still has not been able to put two strong races together in a row. The Kentucky Derby runner-up will go next in the Haskell.

Next 5: Drain the Clock, Jackie's Warrior, Midnight Bourbon, Known Agenda, Highly Motivated.

3-year-old females

1. Malathaat. Her two Grade 1 wins gets her the nod here for the tops spot, as well as her close win over her rival. She sat out the Acorn (G1), which was won by Search Results. Should return for her first start since her Kentucky Oaks win in the Coaching Club American Oaks (G1) in late July before possibly the Alabama Stakes (G1) at Saratoga in August.

2. Search Results. Impressive winner of the recent Acorn, which was her first Grade 1 win. Suffered her only loss, to Malathaat, in the Kentucky Oaks in her prior start, but she was game in defeat. She is another win away from moving to the top. Interestingly, her connections will cut her back to the seven-furlong Test Stakes (G1) on Aug. 7 at Saratoga for her next start

3. Will's Secret. Back-to-back third-place finishes in Grade 1 events bump her up to this spot. She narrowly held off Clairiere for the show spot in the Kentucky Oaks in a nice effort. Runs in the Indiana Oaks on Wednesday where she will be favored over Soothsay, the California filly, who was runner-up last time out in the Summertime Oaks (G2) to Crazy Beautiful.

4. Crazy Beautiful. Up-and-down filly cannot seem to put together two winning races in a row, but she has won two graded stakes and was best last out in the Summertime Oaks (G2) at Santa Anita. Connections will send her to the Delaware Oaks (G3) this weekend where she will be the prohibitive favorite.

5. Clairiere. No excuses in the Mother Goose (G2) where she finished third, and there were no excuses in her previous start, the Kentucky Oaks, as she came with her run and missed the show spot by a nose. I think it is safe to say that she and Travel Column, the two fillies who starred at Fair Grounds earlier this year, were not ready to contend with the best of this division as some would have led you to believe.

Next 5: Obligatory, Zaajel, Soothsay, Pauline's Pearl, Always Carina.

Turf males

1. Domestic Spending. Did not make his first start of 2021 until the start of May but has won two Grade 1 events in both of his starts. His facile Manhattan Stakes (G1) win at Belmont was superb, defeating several others ranked below. Domestic Spending’s season will follow the same path as Bricks and Mortar from two seasons ago, trainer Chad Brown said, with the race that used to be called the Arlington Million, the Mister D. Stakes (G1) on Aug. 14 at Arlington, likely to be the gelding’s next spot.

2. Colonel Liam. Running since December, this guy also has two Grade 1 wins on his resume, but he sports a Grade 2 win in 2021 too. True, he did go down to defeat in the Manhattan, but it was his first loss of 2021. He has been running since January and has won three stakes. He will get a bit of a break before returning late this summer, and he deserves a mulligan for his off-the-board Manhattan.

3. Smooth Like Strait. After several close calls in Grade 1 races, he finally came through with his first win at the top level last time out in the Shoemaker Mile (G1) at Santa Anita, where he went wire to wire. Previous to this win, he set the pace in the Turf Classic (G1) and was edged by a neck nearing the wire to finish third. Looks like a serious Breeders' Cup Mile contender down the road. Will target the Eddie Read (G2) on July 24 at Del Mar.

4. Channel Maker. He simply did not run his best race in Dubai, where he finished eighth, beaten six lengths in the Sheema Classic (G1). Previously, he ran a gallant race to finish second in the Neom Turf Cup In Saudi Arabia. We should see him back in the Bowling Green (G2) on July 21 at Saratoga.

5. Raging Bull. No excuses in his runner-up loss to Oleksandra, a 7-year-old mare making her career finale because she is in foal. Certainly was impressive in his first start this season, a win in the Maker's Mark Mile (G1), and remains in the top five for now.

Next 5: Hit the Road, Somelikeithotbrown, Gufo, Say the Word, Tribhuven.

Turf females

1. Mean Mary. Was really flattered last weekend with the win by Thundering Nights in an Ireland Group 1 race. Remember, Thundering Nights was runner-up to Mean Mary last out in the New York Stakes (G2). Previous to that winning race, Mean Mary was best in the Gallorette Stakes (G3) at Pimlico. The preseason favorite in this division, she will run next in the United Nations (G1) on July 17 or the Beverly D (G1) on Aug. 14.

2. Thundering Nights. Broke through in a big way last week in the Pretty Polly Stakes, an Irish Group 1. She is ranked here because previous to that she was a strong runner-up to No. 1 Mean Mary in the New York.

3. Juliet Foxtrot. Was upset last out in the Mint Julep (G3) at Churchill Downs, losing by a half-length when runner-up to Mintd. Her previous start resulted in a Grade 1 win in the Jenny Wiley, and prior to that she had placed in four Grade 1 events. Her overall 2021 resume keeps her in this spot for now. Plans for her next start are undecided.

4. Harvey's Lil Goil. Checked in fifth in the New York, but the soft turf might have had something to do with her surprisingly poor showing. Gets a mulligan and stays here for now. Previously, she won her only other start this season, the Beaugay (G3) at Belmont.

5. Blowout. After four straight runner-up finishes, she finally entered the winners circle with her strong win in the Distaff Turf Mile (G2) at Churchill Downs. The Turf Mile was her first start of 2021; she ended 2020 with a runner-up effort in the Matriarch (G1) at Santa Anita. Was scratched from the recent Just a Game (G1) at Belmont Park.

Next 5: Charmaine's Mia, Viadera, Mucho Unusual, Magic Attitude, Lemista.

Male sprinters

1. C Z Rocket. Has won both his sprint starts this year, defeating last year's Eclipse winner, Whitmore, in the process. Simply put, he has beaten better competition than his next closest rival, Mischevious Alex, has. His connections tried to stretch him out to a mile in the Steve Sexton (G3) at Lone Star last time out, but he finished second. Will head back to California for his next start, the Bing Crosby (G1) at Del Mar.

2. Mischevious Alex. Tried to stretch out to a mile in the Met Mile, but he flattened in the stretch to finish fourth. Won his first Grade 1 race a few months ago in the Carter (G1) at Aqueduct in impressive fashion, and previously he scored in the Gulfstream Park Sprint (G3), also impressively.

3. Firenze Fire. This guy is tough as nails, and last out he won the True North (G2) at Belmont for the second year in a row. Now 2-for-2 on the season, he will run again Sunday in the John A. Nerud (G2) at Belmont. Firenze Fire reminds me a lot of Whitmore from a year ago. A horse I never thought could win an Eclipse, but who was near the top of his division. Perhaps Firenze Fire will be this year's Whitmore.

4. Flagstaff. Tough old veteran fired again in the True North but was only second best. He is at the top of his game now as he scored his first Grade 1 win two starts ago in the Churchill Downs Stakes. 

5. Whitmore. Another tough loss for this guy as he briefly had the lead late in the Churchill Downs Stakes but was edged at the wire, where he finished a close third in a blanket finish with four others. Previously he was twice runner-up to C Z Rocket at Oaklawn. As honest as they come, he still is at the top of his game.

Next 5: Cezanne, Wildman Jack, Brickyard Ride, Drain the Clock, Special Reserve.

Female sprinters

1. Gamine. With few spots to choose from in the coming weeks, she will likely run in the Great Lady M. Stakes (G2) at Los Alamitos on Monday. 2-for-2 on the season, she hasn't been quite as dominant this year but has gotten the job done. Had to work for her win in the Derby City Distaff (G1) over Sconsin. With fans used to the dominant Gamine we saw in 2020, the 2021 version hasn't been quite the same, but she is still winning races.

2. Kimari. In her first graded stakes race on the dirt, she did not disappoint, edging away in the stretch for a 3/4-length win over Bell's the One in the Madison (G1) at Keeneland. Have to believe she would have been tough in the recent Derby City Distaff, but her connections opted not to enter. That might cost them come Eclipse voting time. She needs to run soon or will drop from this spot.

3. Bell's the One. Finally showed her true talent in the Roxelana Stakes when defeating Sconsin for her first win in three starts this season. After a disappointing effort when she was off the board in the Derby City Distaff, a strong showing last weekend was needed, and she came firing.

4. Sconsin. Ran well in the Roxelana but Bell's the One was too good. Has run well now in three straight and is in the thick of things in a division that appears very top heavy.

5. Estilo Talentoso. Already with five starts in 2021, she is stakes placed in all of them. Finally broke through for her first win of the season last out in the Bed o' Roses (G3). Prior to that win she finished third to Gamine in the Derby City Distaff and runner-up to Kimari in the Madison. She will run again this weekend in a very deep Princess Rooney (G2) at Gulfstream where she will face Grade 1 winner Ce Ce and several other tough sprinters. Another win this weekend will move her up.

Next 5: Merneith, Edgeway, Frank's Rockette, Pacific Gale, Venetian Harbor.

Essential Quality, Medina Spirit, and Hot Road Charlie are readying for the summer and fall races that will determine this year’s champion. With no disrespect to Preakness winner Rombauer or any other 3-year-old male for that matter, I think it is pretty clear, the divisional supremacy will fall to one of these three. 

Everyone’s favorite right now, Belmont winner Essential Quality, is the rightful leader of the division. Essential Quality has done little wrong in his career, but his lead in this division narrow. With three graded stakes wins on the year, that leads this division, and one cannot help to wonder what could have been had he been able to pass his rivals in that exciting stretch drive of the Kentucky Derby. With the Travers in late August as his next major goal, I fully expect to see him make a start in the Jim Dandy later this month. But, even with wins in those two big events, there will be work to be done. 

The Belmont runner-up Hot Rod Charlie did not win a Triple Crown race, but he won over the hearts of many with his courageous Belmont runner-up finish. Prior to the Belmont he was a finished a close third – ahead of Essential Quality – in the Kentucky Derby. A winner of the Louisiana Derby (G2) earlier this year, Hot Rod Charlie’s next start is up in the air. Should he run in the Haskell for his next start he may skip the Travers and instead run in the Pacific Classic (G1), which is five weeks after the Haskell. With the Breeders’ Cup at Del Mar this fall, a Pacific Classic start over older males makes sense, and actually would look better on Hot Road Charlie’s Eclipse resume than a Travers win restricted to those only in his division. Only five 3-year-old males have won the Pacific Classic, and this year marks the 30th running of an event that started with a 3-year-old Best Pal defeating older in that 1991 edition.

The forgotten horse by many – or, maybe I should write, the disrespected horse by many – Kentucky Derby winner Medina Spirit, is still very much alive in this Eclipse race. Put aside your personal feelings for a moment as we are discussing the horse, not the connections.  Medina Spirit has defeated Hot Road Charlie twice this season and Essential Quality once, and won the biggest race his division has to offer. Where he runs next is anyone’s guess, but should he come away victorious in his next start, he must move back up to the head of his class. With the Breeders’ Cup held in his backyard, he may not have to leave his home state for the remainder of the season. 

No matter what Essential Quality does in New York this summer, he has two West Coast-based rivals that he may not get to meet on the track again until the Breeders’ Cup Classic. The Essential Quality that I saw on Belmont day was a different Essential Quality seen previously. He has taken giant steps forward and I do not expect him to lose his New York starts. 

For Hot Rod Charlie, he needs to bag a Grade 1 event prior to the Breeders’ Cup to have any chance at an Eclipse. But much like Essential Quality, this guy appears to have taken giant steps since that Kentucky Derby finish. He will be a tough customer in whatever spot his connections choose for his next start. 

And finally, Medina Spirit just needs to run again soon, and win. Forget the controversy, as this horse is still a serious player in this division and has been since the start of the season. A win in his next start and bandwagon jumpers will be scurrying to hop back aboard.