Division Rankings: Final preps could yield Ky. Derby favorite

With Epicenter and White Abarrio stating their Kentucky Derby cases clearly the last few weeks, we are now down to the final auditions where all eyes will be on the Santa Anita Derby and the battle between Forbidden Kingdom and Messier.

Before I dive into that and brief thoughts on the other two major races that will determine the final Kentucky Derby field, let’s take a look at this week’s updated Division Rankings.

Older dirt males

1. Country Grammer. Sensational in both of his starts overseas, he was a facile winner of last week's Dubai World Cup (G1). Previous to that he was a close runner-up in the Saudi Cup (G1), his first start in nine months. Will return to the U.S. now and be back in late summer.

2. Hot Rod Charlie. Struggling midway through the Dubai World Cup, he looked to be in serious trouble but gathered himself and ran a solid second on a day where he might not have been his best. If the Breeders' Cup Classic were held today he would be the second betting choice.

3. Express Train. Now 2-for-2 on the season, this guy is in the best form of his career. He finally broke through in a Grade 1, winning the Santa Anita Handicap. A winner of three in a row, he defeated Hot Rod Charlie in late December as well. He will point to the Hollywood Gold Cup (G1) in late May for his next start, but still not sure if he can compete with the top two at 10 furlongs.

4. Life Is Good. A textbook example of a horse who, while very good at 8-9 furlongs, just wasn't the same when stretching out to 10 furlongs. That was the fear here all along with this guy. He had a clear lead in the stretch of the Dubai World Cup but faded in the last 200 yards to finish fourth. He most certainly will cut back in distance moving forward in an attempt to get back to the Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile.

5. Midnight Bourbon. Ran OK when fifth in a very tough Dubai World Cup, but the fact remains he hasn’t won in over a year. Will likely drop from this spot in the coming weeks. Will head back to the U.S. and could return in the Stephen Foster (G2) at Churchill Downs in June.

Next 5: Olympiad, Warrant, Mandaloun, Stilleto Boy, Rated R Superstar.

Older dirt females

1. Letruska. Looked good in her return to the races, a three-length win in the Royal Delta (G3) at Gulfstream. Refreshed and ready for 2022, she will target the Apple Blossom (G1) at Oaklawn for her next start on April 23.

2. Ce Ce. Defeated a strong field in the Azeri (G2) last time out; Pauline's Pearl and Shedaresthedevil were second and third, respectively. Still believe she will end up back sprinting, as she will find the going tough at nine furlongs.

3. Shedaresthedevil. Returned in the Azeri and ran OK when finishing third to Ce Ce. Will run in the Apple Blossom next.

4. Clairiere. Solid in her comeback, albeit in an allowance. Previously she ran a very nice race against a tough field in the Breeders' Cup Distaff, where it briefly looked like she would win. Instead, she settled for a close fourth, 3/4 length from the winner. She too will point for the Apple Blossom.

5. Pauline's Pearl. Very good in both of her starts this season, winning the Houston Ladies Classic (G3) and narrowly losing to Ce Ce in the Azeri at Oaklawn. Will now point to the La Troienne (G1) at Churchill Downs on Kentucky Derby weekend.

Next 5: Malathaat, Miss Bigly, Bonny South, Search Results, Lady Rocket.

3-year-old males

1. Epicenter. Really impressed me with his Louisiana Derby win, showing a new dimension in coming from slightly off the pace. He has most certainly put himself in position for Kentucky Derby glory, and I love the fact that he had three races this year – plus a race in late December. His only loss in his last five starts was a neck loss in the Lecomte (G3) earlier this season. Appears to have all the tools and foundation to be a serious player this spring.

2. White Abarrio. Impressed again with his win in last week's Florida Derby at Gulfstream and previous to that he scored an impressive win in the Holy Bull (G3). He too appears to be a serious player moving forward, but, all of his wins have come at Gulfstream and he may have been the recipient of some good racing luck when the runner-up, Charge It, ran green in the stretch and basically handed him the win.

3. Forbidden Kingdom. Will have to impress me in this weekend's Santa Anita Derby (G1) to reclaim the top spot. In his last start he ran super-fast fractions in the San Felipe (G2) and had more than enough in the tank in the stretch. I don't think distance will be a problem moving forward, and he has Richard Mandella as his trainer, who is due for some Kentucky Derby glory. My only concern is whether he might be a one dimensional horse.

4. Messier. He ran the fastest race two-turn race of any 3-year-old according to the Beyer Speed Figures from Daily Racing Form when winning by 15 in the Robert B. Lewis (G3) at Santa Anita. It will be interesting to see how he runs next out. The Santa Anita Derby this weekend is next, and I'm still not sold on him.

5. Simplification. Ran a much-better-than-it-looked third in the Florida Derby. Previous to that he won his first graded stakes in the Fountain of Youth (G2); still not convinced he is a viable Kentucky Derby win contender, but certainly fits for the underneath spots.

Next 9: Smile Happy, Cyberknife, Zandon, Charge It, Zozos, Mo Donegal, Morello, Pioneer of Medina, Early Voting.

3-year-old females

1. Secret Oath. Ran much better than I envisioned when third in the Arkansas Derby (G1), and will now head to the Kentucky Oaks. A different horse now at age 3 than she was at age 2, she is the horse to beat on Oaks day, in my opinion.

2. Echo Zulu. Made her 3-year-old debut and was all out to hold off Hidden Connection for the win in the Fair Grounds Oaks (G2). Clearly, this was not the same dominant filly we saw at age 2, and the added distance of the Kentucky Oaks makes her a huge underlay for that expected next start. Several others in this division already have run faster than her this season.

3. Adare Manor. Dominant in her last two starts, she won her graded stakes debut, the Las Virgenes (G3), by 13 lengths. To be fair, she beat only three others in that race, but her future looks bright. She might be the best of all of these.

4. Kathleen O. Perfect in four career starts, her latest win came in last weekend's Gulfstream Park Oaks (G2). Certainly will be among the favorites on Kentucky Oaks Day, and may very well be the best in this division right now, but I still have doubts about her going longer.

5. Eda. A Grade 1 winner at age 2, she started 2022 off on a winning note with her score in the Santa Ysabel (G2) at Santa Anita.

Next 5: Hidden Connection, Tarabi, Under the Stars, Nest, Goddess of Fire.

Turf males

1. Colonel Liam. He found the waters a bit too deep in the Dubai Turf (G1), where he finished ninth. Previously he ran huge in defending his Pegasus World Cup Turf (G1) and seemed better than ever despite his long layoff. There is a wide gap between grass horses in this country and overseas.

2. Golden Pal. It has been a long time since I ranked a turf sprinter so highly, but he deserves it at this point. He ran only four times in 2021, winning three of them. But his Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint was a thing of beauty, dominating from start to finish to post an easy win. Back working, he will return this weekend in the Shakertown (G2) at Keeneland.

3. Domestic Spending. Had to scratch out of the Breeders' Cup because of injury. Will be back this season with hopes that he runs more than the three times we saw him in 2021.

4. Smooth Like Strait. It was this guy who ran the best of the U.S.-based grass horses in the two major Breeders' Cup grass races last fall. His runner-up finish in the Breeders' Cup Mile summed up his entire season – tough as nails and always runs his race. Will be back this season.

5. Gufo. Always highly regarded, he hasn't really lived up to expectations as of yet, but he surely started his 2022 season off right with a facile two-length win in the Pan American (G2) at Gulfstream.

Next 5: Hit the Road, Count Again, Never Surprised, Two Emmys, Friar's Road.

Turf females

1. War Like Goddess. Tough-luck loser of the Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf, she is still tops in this division. A winner of four graded stakes in 2021, including the Flower Bowl (G1) at Belmont Park. Robbed of an Eclipse last year, she enters this season the clear leader of this division.

2. Going Global. Won six graded stakes last season as a 3-year-old filly. Hasn't left her home state of California since arriving in this country in late 2020 but will have to if she aims to contend for an Eclipse this season. Will run next in the Royal Heroine (G2) on April 9 at Santa Anita.

3. Shantisara. Winner of three stakes in a row. Her last, the Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup (G1) at Keeneland, was a powerhouse performance where she won by five lengths. Trainer Chad Brown might have himself another star.

4. Regal Glory. Ran big in winning in the Pegasus Filly & Mare Turf (G3); previously she won the Matriarch (G1), beating Princess Grace. Will run next in the Jenny Wiley (G1) at Keeneland.

5. Princess Grace. Was on a four-race winning streak, all graded stakes. But in her last two, she was third to Going Global in the Goldikova (G2) and third to Regal Glory in the Matriarch (G1) last out. Close for this spot, with Zofelle right behind.

Next 5: Zofelle, Leggs Galore, Going to Vegas, Queen Goddess, Luck.

Male sprinters

1. Jackie's Warrior. The Eclipse winner from last season, this guy ran a full schedule and ran hard every time. Didn't fire his best shot in the Breeders' Cup, but to be fair, the long season and cross-country trip probably had something to do with that. He deserves this spot over all others, including Flightline, for now. Working again, he will make his comeback in the Count Fleet Sprint (G3) on April 16 at Oaklawn.

2. Flightline. Super impressive in his Malibu (G1) win, defeating Dr. Schivel, among others. Still, he has only one stakes start and doesn't seem capable of running a full schedule, given his three career starts spanning eight months. His connections have stated he will run only four times in 2022 if he stays healthy. With his next start in question, still lots of questions to be answered by this son of Tapit. The Met Mile (G1) is still on the table, but I would be shocked if he appeared at Belmont to run.

3. Dr. Schivel. Ran a good third in Dubai in the Golden Shaheen (G1) in his first start of 2022. Previously he disappointed in the Malibu, but given what he did in 2021, he deserves this spot for now. Will return in late July at Del Mar.

4. Aloha West. The Breeders' Cup Sprint winner closed stoutly in the stretch to win by a nose. Still, the Breeders' Cup was his first graded stakes win. He has to show me a lot more to move up here.

5. Following Sea. Ran well last out in the Cigar Mile (G1), finishing runner-up to Americanrevolution. Prior to that, the Vosburgh (G2) winner ran very well in the Breeders' Cup Sprint, finishing third.

Next 5: Golden Pal, Cezanne, Special Reserve, Essential Wager, Baby Yoda.

Female sprinters

1. Edgeway. Last season's Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint runner-up is 2-for-2 on the season, her last win coming in the Las Flores (G3) at Santa Anita. She will run next on Kentucky Derby weekend in the Derby City Distaff (G1).

2. Merneith. Won the Santa Monica (G2) in her last start, but previous to that she was second best to Edgeway, which is why she is here at No. 2. Will be removed from this spot next week as she was retired.

3. Ce Ce. Last season's Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint winner was beaten by Merneith in her first start of 2022, the Santa Monica (G2) at Santa Anita. Last time out she stretched out to win the Azeri at 1 1/16 miles.

4. Bell's the One. On the work tab but hasn't run yet this season. Last season she was a four-time stakes winner, two of which were graded. She will run in the Madison (G1) at Keeneland this weekend.

5. Obligatory. Last year at age 3 she tried the best in her division in several Grade 1 events. She looks to be better sprinting, and last time out won the Hurricane Bertie (G3) by three lengths.

Next 5: Kimari, Fille d'Esprit, Kiss the Girl, Kalypso, Private Mission.

Questions remain about Forbidden Kingdom, Messier

With Epicenter still sitting firmly at the top of these rankings and on many Kentucky Derby contender lists, this weekend we will find out a lot about two other horses that many have circled as their top choice to come away with the roses next month in Louisville.

Forbidden Kingdom held down the No. 1 spot in these rankings for a few weeks and now will face his toughest test to date in facing Messier, the colt who won his last start in the Robert B. Lewis by 15 lengths. Both colts still have questions to be answered and likely still will even after their race this weekend.

These two have met previously, with Messier defeating his rival by over three lengths a week after the Breeders’ Cup at Del Mar in the Bob Hope Stakes (G3). The Forbidden Kingdom that Messier will see on Saturday is a different animal than the one he saw last November.

Forbidden Kingdom has been on the lead in all five of his starts. Is he a need-the-lead runner? We likely won’t find out an answer to that question on Saturday as he figures to once again get the early lead in a small field. What do we make of that 15 lengths win by Messier in his last start? Was it a by product of his competition with an inflated speed figure? I tend to think so.

So if Forbidden Kingdom wins on Saturday over a small field in wire-to-wire fashion, he will likely head to Louisville as the favorite. But for me he will still have questions to be answered as compared to a horse like Epicenter who has checked most of the boxes already. Still, his speed may prove to be dangerous if he can handle the longer distances.

As for Messier, if he runs a similar race as last time out, then he will head to the Kentucky Derby as the favorite. But the change in connections is a valid concern for me in this weekend’s race.

So what am I saying? No matter the result in the Santa Anita Derby, tread carefully with the horses coming out and heading to Louisville. Beating small fields against suspect competition is fine, but it's quite another thing to win against a large field with traffic and proven quality competition in Epicenter, White Abarrio and others.

What about the other two major races? The Blue Grass (G1) has Smile Happy entered, and he may very well win. But I can’t back a son of Runhappy on the first Saturday in May running 10 furlongs. As I wrote last week, the Wood Memorial (G2) is, well, the Wood Memorial. There are certainly some nice horses entered, but no matter the result of that event it is hard for me to envision the winner being among the top four wagering choices in Louisville. These two events have seen their winners go a combined 0-50 in the Kentucky Derby in the last few decades.