Division Rankings: Epicenter will be a tough act to follow

No matter what takes place over the next two weekends of final Kentucky Derby prep races, it's hard for me to envision another horse heading to Louisville with a resume as solid as the one Epicenter has put together.

The winner of last week's Grade 2 Louisiana Derby has grown before our eyes, running several times in the last few months. The route his connections have decided to take has been refreshing to see in this day and age. His already has run three times this season and five times over the last four-plus months. One thing Epicenter possesses now is foundation.

Before I dive into more of my Epicenter thoughts, let’s take a look at this week’s updated Division Rankings.

Older dirt males

1. Country Grammer. Sensational in both of his starts overseas, he was a facile winner of last week's Dubai World Cup (G1). Previous to that he was a close runner-up in the Saudi Cup (G1), his first start in nine months. Will return to the U.S. now and be back in late summer.

2. Hot Rod Charlie. Struggling midway through the Dubai World Cup, he looked to be in serious trouble but gathered himself and ran a solid second on a day where he might not have been his best.

3. Express Train. Now 2-for-2 on the season, this guy is in the best form of his career. He finally broke through in a Grade 1, winning the Santa Anita Handicap. A winner of three in a row, he defeated Hot Rod Charlie in late December as well. He will point to the Hollywood Gold Cup (G1) in late May for his next start.

4. Life Is Good. A textbook example of a horse who, while very good at 8-9 furlongs, just wasn't the same when stretching out to 10 furlongs. That was the fear here all along with this guy. He had a clear lead in the stretch of the Dubai World Cup but faded the last 200 yards to finish fourth. He most certainly will cut back in distance moving forward in an attempt to get back to the Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile.

5. Midnight Bourbon. Ran okay when fifth in a very tough Dubai World Cup, but the fact remains he hasn’t won in over a year. Will likely drop from this spot in the coming weeks. Will head back to the U.S. and could return in the Stephen Foster at Churchill Downs in June.

Next 5: Olympiad, Warrant, Mandaloun, Stilleto Boy, Rated R Superstar.

Older dirt females

1. Letruska. Looked good in her return to the races, a three-length win in the Royal Delta (G3) at Gulfstream. Refreshed and ready for 2022, she will target the Apple Blossom (G1) at Oaklawn for her next start.

2. As Times Goes By. On a roll now, a winner of her last three starts, two of which were this season. She added the Beholder Mile (G1) to her resume last week. Deserves this spot based on her record thus far but will be dropped in the coming weeks as she has been retired by her connections while at the top of her game.

3. Ce Ce. Defeated a strong field in the Azeri (G2) last time out; Pauline's Pearl and Shedaresthedevil were second and third, respectively. Still believe she will end up back sprinting, as she will find the going tough at nine furlongs.

4. Shedaresthedevil. Returned in the Azeri and ran OK when finishing third to Ce Ce. Will run in the Apple Blossom next.

5. Clairiere. Solid in her comeback, albeit in an allowance. Previously she ran a very nice race against a tough field in the Breeders' Cup Distaff, where it briefly looked like she would win. Instead, she settled for a close fourth, 3/4 of a length from the winner. She too will point for the Apple Blossom.

Next 5: Pauline's Pearl, Malathaat, Bonny South, Search Results, Lady Rocket.

3-year-old males

1. Epicenter. Really impressed me with his Louisiana Derby win, showing a new dimension in coming from slightly off the pace. He has most certainly put himself in position for Kentucky Derby glory, and I love the fact that he had three races this year – plus a race in late December. His only loss in his last five starts was a neck loss in the Lecomte (G3) earlier this season. Appears to have all the tools and foundation to be a serious player this spring.
2. Forbidden Kingdom. Will have to impress me in next week's Santa Anita Derby (G1) to reclaim the top spot. In his last start he ran super-fast fractions in the San Felipe (G2) and had more than enough in the tank in the stretch. I don't think distance will be a problem moving forward, and he has Richard Mandella as his trainer, who is due for some Kentucky Derby glory. My only concern is whether he might be a one dimensional horse.
3. Messier. He ran the fastest race speed-figure-wise, by far, of any 3-year-old. Winning by 15 in the Lewis Stakes (G3) at Santa Anita, it will be interesting to see how he runs next out. The Santa Anita Derby is assumed to be next for him.
4. White Abarrio. He too has to be ranked here based on his impressive win in the Holy Bull (G3) over a few ranked below. Now 3-for-4 on his career, connections will run him in the Florida Derby (G1) this weekend.
5. Simplification. Won his first graded stakes in the Fountain of Youth (G2); still not convinced he is a viable Kentucky Derby contender. Will be among the favorites in the Florida Derby.
Next 8: Smile Happy, Classic Causeway, Zandon, Zozo's, Mo Donegal, Morello, Pioneer of Medina, Early Voting.
3-year-old females

1. Secret Oath. A different horse now at age 3 than she was at age 2. She was dominant again in the Honeybee (G3) at Oaklawn. Connections have decided to take on on males in the Arkansas Derby (G1) for her next start. Not a good idea, in my opinion – she still has much to prove in her own division, but given that the Arkansas Derby is coming up extremely light, perhaps she can contend.
2. Echo Zulu. Made her 3-year-old debut and was all out to hold off Hidden Connection for the win in the Fair Grounds Oaks (G2). Clearly, this was not the same dominant filly we saw at age 2, and the added distance of the Kentucky Oaks makes her a huge underlay, in my opinion, for that expected next start. Several others in this division already have run faster than her this season.
3. Adare Manor. Dominant in her last two starts, she won her graded-stakes debut, the Las Virgenes (G3), by 13 lengths. To be fair, she beat only three others in that race, but her future looks bright. She might be the best of all of these.

4. Juju's Map. Ran well in the Breeders' Cup but was second best to Echo Zulu. Previously she was the winner of the Alcibiades (G1) as the favorite at Keeneland after breaking her maiden at Ellis Park. Finally had her first work of 2022.
5. Eda. A Grade 1 winner at age 2, she started 2022 off on a winning note with her score in the Santa Ysabel (G2) at Santa Anita.
Next 5: Hidden Connection, Tarabi, Under the Stars, Nest, Kathleen O.

Turf males

1. Colonel Liam. He found the waters a bit too deep in the Dubai Turf (G1), where he finished ninth. Previously he ran huge in defending his Pegasus World Cup Turf (G1) and seemed better than ever despite his long layoff. There is a wide gap between grass horses in this country and overseas.

2. Domestic Spending. Had to scratch out of the Breeders' Cup because of injury. Will be back this season with hopes that he runs more than the three times we saw him in 2021.

3. Smooth Like Strait. It was this guy who ran the best of the U.S.-based grass horses in the two major Breeders' Cup grass races last fall. His runner-up finish in the Breeders' Cup Mile summed up his entire season – tough as nails and always runs his race. Will be back this season.

4. Golden Pal. It has been a long time since I ranked a turf sprinter this high, but he deserves it. He ran only four times in 2021, winning three of them. But his Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint was a thing of beauty, dominating from start to finish to post an easy win. Back working, he is slated to return April 9 in the Shakertown (G2) at Keeneland.

5. Hit the Road. Ran poorly in the Pegasus World Cup Turf (G1) in his 2022 debut, but this guy was very good last season, winning a Grade 1 and knocking heads with Smooth Like Strait in a few races. I might have him ranked high here, but I feel like he is in the top tier of this division when right.

Next 5: Count Again, United, Never Surprised, Two Emmys, Friar's Road.

Turf females

1. War Like Goddess. Tough-luck loser of the Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf, she is still tops in this division. A winner of four graded stakes in 2021, including the Flower Bowl (G1) at Belmont Park. The clear leader of this division heading into this season despite being robbed of an Eclipse.

2. Going Global. Won six graded stakes last season as a 3-year-old filly. Hasn't left her home state of California since arriving in this country in late 2020 but will have to if she aims to contend for an Eclipse this season. Will run next in the Royal Heroine (G2) on April 9 at Santa Anita.

3. Shantisara. Winner of three stakes in a row – and her last, the Queen Elizabeth (G1) at Keeneland, was a powerhouse performance where she won by five. Trainer Chad Brown might have himself another star.

4. Regal Glory. Ran big in winning in the Pegasus Filly & Mare Turf (G3); previously she won the Matriarch (G1), beating Princess Grace. Will run next in the Jenny Wiley (G1) at Keeneland.

5. Princess Grace. Was on a four-race winning streak, all graded stakes. But in her last two, she was third to Going Global in the Goldikova (G2) and third to Regal Glory in the Matriarch (G1) last out. Close for this spot, with Zofelle right behind.

Next 5: Zofelle, Leggs Galore, Going to Vegas, Queen Goddess, Luck.

Male sprinters

1. Jackie's Warrior. The Eclipse winner from last season, this guy ran a full schedule and ran hard every time. Didn't fire his best shot in the Breeders' Cup, but to be fair, the long season and cross-country trip probably had something to do with that. He deserves this spot over all others, including Flightline, for now. Working again, he will make his comeback in the Count Fleet Sprint (G3) on April 16 at Oaklawn.

2. Flightline. Super impressive in his Malibu (G1) win, defeating Dr. Schivel, among others. Still, he has only one stakes start and doesn't seem capable of running a full schedule, given his three career starts spanning eight months. His connections have stated he will run only four times in 2022 if he stays healthy. With his next start in question, still lots of questions to be answered by this son of Tapit. The Met Mile (G1) is still on the table, but I would be shocked if he appeared at Belmont to run.

3. Dr. Schivel. Ran a good third in Dubai in the Golden Shaheen (G1) in his first start of 2022. Previously he disappointed in the Malibu, but given what he did in 2021, he deserves this spot for now.

4. Aloha West. The Breeders' Cup Sprint winner closed stoutly in the stretch to win by a nose. Still, the Breeders' Cup was his first graded-stakes win. He has to show me a lot more to move up here. He will run April 9 in the Commonwealth (G3) at Keeneland.

5. Following Sea. Ran well last out in the Cigar Mile (G1), finishing runner-up to Americanrevolution. Prior to that, the Vosburgh (G2) winner ran very well in the Breeders' Cup Sprint, finishing third.

Next 5: Golden Pal, Cezanne, Special Reserve, Essential Wager, Baby Yoda.

Female sprinters

1. Edgeway. Last season's Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint runner-up is 2-for-2 on the season, her last win coming in the Las Flores (G3) at Santa Anita. She will run next on Kentucky Derby weekend in the Derby City Distaff (G1).

2. Merneith. Won the Santa Monica (G2) in her last start, but previous to that she was second best to Edgeway, which is why she is here at No. 2. Will be removed from this spot next week as she was retired.

3. Ce Ce. Last season's Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint winner was beaten by Merneith in her first start of 2022, the Santa Monica (G2) at Santa Anita. Last time out she stretched out to win the Azeri at 8.5 furlongs. Will get back to sprinting next time out, in the Madison (G1) at Keeneland on April 9.

4. Bell's the One. On the work tab but hasn't run yet this season. Last season she was a four-time stakes winner, two of which were graded. She too will start in the Madison at Keeneland.

5. Obligatory. Last year at age 3 she tried the best in her division in several Grade 1 events. She looks to be better sprinting, and last time out won the Hurricane Bertie (G3) by three lengths.

Next 5: Kimari, Fille d'Esprit, Kiss the Girl, Kalypso, Private Mission.

Epicenter appears to be the best of the bunch

What impressed me and many others the most about Epicenter’s win in last week’s Louisiana Derby was how he won it. In his previous five starts Epicenter had been on lead in all but one. That was his win in last season’s Gun Runner Stakes, when he was battling for the early lead, but second early. So there were questions about Epicenter’s ability to rate should he need to if the situation called for it.

Epicenter passed that test with flying colors.

Lots of boxes have been checked in my book for this son of Not This Time. He proved he can be versatile. He has shown he can handle a schedule of races, with three already this season, and he has run fast. Contrary to popular belief, I believe that many horses thrive on more racing. Two- and three-week breaks between races were the norm in previous decades, and for some reason six- to eight-week breaks are the norm now. Epicenter has thrived with his busy schedule, getting better with each start. Has he reached his peak? I don’t think he has.

In previous seasons I wasn’t keen on horses coming out of the Fair Grounds series of 3-year-old events. But I have to admit, the people there have gotten it right with their program and ramp up to the Louisiana Derby with its added distance. Epicenter has run in all four events, and the change in the Louisiana Derby to 1 3/16 miles two years ago was a brilliant move and set that race apart from all other preps.

Just last year, Louisiana Derby horses occupied four of the top six spots in the Kentucky Derby. Was that a fluke? Time will tell – we have only two years of 9.5 furlong Louisiana Derbies to look at. But I believe the distance change is a big deal, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see another major prep follow the Fair Grounds lead in the coming seasons.

Am I jumping the gun on Epicenter with five major Kentucky Derby preps still to be run over the next two weeks? I don’t think so.

Smile Happy will be the favorite in the Blue Grass (G1), but does anyone really believe a son of Run Happy is a viable contender come the first Saturday in May? Not me. This weekend we will see a slightly above-average filly taking on the boys in a historically weak Arkansas Derby, and a recent maiden winner is among the favorites in a Florida Derby where none of the contenders jump out to me. The Wood Memorial (G2) is, well, the Wood Memorial, so cross that off your list of Kentucky Derby contenders.

Lastly, the Santa Anita Derby, and yes, we have two major Kentucky Derby contenders set to battle in Forbidden Kingdom and Messier. One of these could supplant Epicenter as the Kentucky Derby favorite, but it will take quite an impression to do so. Both of these horses have questions to be answered, the same questions that Epicenter just answered emphatically.