Division Rankings: Weekend races have Eclipse implications

Usually around this time of the season Eclipse voters have pretty much made up their minds on all of the divisions, and in some cases, have already cast their votes. But in what has been a roller coaster of season, with several highs and more recently, colossal lows, voters will need to wait till the last of the Grade 1 events are run this Sunday at Santa Anita.

The presence of Dr. Schivel in the Malibu (G1) and Going Global in the American Oaks (G1) could give voters more - or less - reason to consider these two in their respective divisions.

I know for me these two races will weigh heavily in my decision on which horse to cast a vote for in the Male Sprint division and the Turf Female division.

Before I explain why, lets take a look at this week's penultimate 2021 Division Rankings:

Older dirt males

1. Knicks Go. Will be a deserving Horse of the Year as he won the Pegasus World Cup (G1) in his first start of the season and capped off his year with a facile score in the Breeders' Cup Classic. By far the best in this division, a meeting with Life is Good and Mystic Guide in the Pegasus could be next.

2. Maxfield. Closed his career as a winner in the Clark (G1) validating his spot here. The Clark was just his first Grade 1 win since he was age two.

3. Silver State. Disappointed in the Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile, finishing fifth. The Met Mile (G1) winner led this division for a few weeks earlier this season. Based on his resume for 2021 he deserves this spot.

4. Mystic Guide. Ran only three times this season, but his Dubai World Cup win was outstanding and when all is said and done, he deserves this top five ranking just based on that – and partly because no other deserves to be ranked ahead of him. Connections say he is possible for the Pegasus next month at Gulfstream.

5. Max Player. An abysmal showing in the Breeders' Cup Classic, where he finished in last. The winner of the Suburban (G2) and Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1) was an improved horse this year but found the Classic waters too deep.

Next 5: Art Collector, Tripoli, Dr Post, Happy Saver, Independence Hall.

Older dirt females

1. Letruska. Despite her off-the-board finish in the Breeders' Cup Distaff she was clearly the best in this division in 2021. Will win the Eclipse and be back in 2022.

2. Shedaresthedevil. Was part of the early scorching pace in the Distaff, which also saw her finish off the board. Still, she had a nice season that saw her win four graded stakes.

3. Dunbar Road. Nearly pulled off the Breeders' Cup Distaff win, losing by a nose. She didn't win a race this season, but her last two runner-up efforts place her among the best in division.

4. Bonny South. Was simply second best in the Fall City (G2), losing to Evoutante last out. Previous to that she was runner-up in two straight Grade 1 events, the Spinster and the Personal Ensign. Her lone win in 2021 came in the Doubledogdare (G3) at Churchill Downs.

5. Royal Flag. Certainly had the right pace in the Distaff but could muster only a fifth-place finish. Previously she beat a subpar field in the Beldame (G2) and was a good third to Letruska in the Personal Ensign.

Next 5: Envoutante, As Time Goes By, Gamine, Crystal Ball, Antoinette.

3-year-old males

1. Medina Spirit. Tragic end to a life taken much too soon. His runner-up finish in the Classic should net him the Eclipse in this division. Tied for the most Grade 1 wins in the division, he also has a win over older, something his closest rivals, Essential Quality and Hot Rod Charlie, do not have. Finished ahead of Essential Quality the two times they met on the racetrack. Will voters do the right thing and award the Eclipse to the best in the division? Likely not. Based largely in part to personal bias towards the connections.

2. Essential Quality. Was game in his third-place Breeders' Cup Classic finish, but as in the Kentucky Derby, he had the entire stretch to pass his 3-year-old rival but couldn't do it despite having the better trip. He is retired now after a spectacular career that saw him lose only two races. Could the gap between the Travers (G1) and Classic have cost him the race? Perhaps.

3. Hot Rod Charlie. He too was in the thick of things in the Classic stretch but fell just short finishing fourth. An outstanding season for this son of Oxbow. He will be back this weekend at Santa Anita in the San Antonio Stakes (G2) and will carry the torch as the last of the Big Three to be in training.

4. Life is Good. Easy winner of the Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile. Big things will be expected for this son of Into Mischief in 2022, when a clash with Knicks Go may be on the Pegasus World Cup menu in late January. Still skeptical he will be as effective at 9 or 10 furlongs.

5. Midnight Bourbon. Found the Clark (G1) waters a little too deep against older when beaten by Maxfield and Happy Saver. He was a clear second best previously in the Penn Derby (G1) to Hot Rod Charlie and previous to that was a close runner-up to Essential Quality in the Travers.

Next 5: Mandaloun, Rombauer, Dr. Schivel, Jackie's Warrior, Golden Pal.

3-year-old females

1. Malathaat. Ran well in the Breeders' Cup Distaff, falling just a 1/2 length short in finishing third. The Alabama (G1) and Kentucky Oaks winner is a lock for this Eclipse.

2. Clairiere. Ran a very nice race against a tough field in the Distaff where for a brief second or two looked like she was going to win. Instead, she settled for a close fourth, 3/4 of a length from the winner.

3. Search Results. Cutting back to the seven-furlong Test Stakes (G1) last out, she finished an even third. Previously she was an impressive winner of the Acorn, which was her first Grade 1 win. Suffered her only loss, to Malathaat, in the Kentucky Oaks earlier this season, but she was game in defeat. Her connections have decided to take her out of training and point to a 4-year-old campaign. Did more than enough to earn this spot.

4. Private Mission. Suicidal Breeders' Cup Distaff pace aside, this filly has a bright future. Prior to the Distaff, she was a nice winner of the Zenyatta (G2) over older and the Torrey Pines (G3) over fellow 3-year-old fillies. Will be back this weekend sprinting in the Grade 1 La Brea at Santa Anita.

5. Soothsay. Showing tremendous fight and determination in the stretch of her Indiana Oaks (G3) win, Soothsay looked like a different horse from the one we saw previously in her loss to Crazy Beautiful in the Summertime Oaks (G2). On the shelf now till 2022.

Next 5: Army Wife, Obligatory, Going Global, Crazy Beautiful, Zaajel.

Turf males

1. Domestic Spending. Runner-up in the Mister D (G1), he couldn't overcome a slow place set by winner Two Emmys. The loss leaves this division open for the taking. He has won two Grade 1 events this season; his facile Manhattan Stakes (G1) win at Belmont was superb, defeating several others ranked below. Had to scratch out of the Breeders' Cup but likely will still win the Eclipse in this division.

2. Smooth Like Strait. It was this guy who ran the best of the U.S.-based grass horses in the two major Breeders' Cup grass races. His runner-up finish in the Breeders' Cup Mile summed up his entire season – tough as nails and always runs his race. Will be back in 2022.

3. Colonel Liam. Like Domestic Spending, this guy also has two Grade 1 wins on his resume, but he sports a Grade 2 win in 2021 too. True, he did go down to defeat in the Manhattan in June, but it was his first loss of 2021. He had been running since January and has won three stakes. Off since that Manhattan loss. Retains this high ranking because no other in this division did enough to pass him.

4. Golden Pal. It has been a long time since I ranked a turf sprinter this high, but he deserves it. He ran only four times in 2021, winning three of them. But his Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint was a thing of beauty, dominating from start to finish to post an easy win.

5. Mo Forza. Finishing 13th and last in the Breeders' Cup Mile after being pinched back at the start. He was sensational in his only other starts this season, two wins in graded stakes. He is now retired.

Next 5: United, Hit the Road, Japan, Tribhuvan, Rockemperor.

Turf females

1. War Like Goddess. Tough-luck loser of the Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf, she is still tops in this division. A winner of four graded stakes this season, including the Flower Bowl (G1) at Belmont Park

2. Althiqa. Returned in the First Lady (G1) at Keeneland and disappointed as the favorite while finishing fourth. That effort dropped her from my top spot. Previously, she won back-to-back Grade 1 events, the Diana and Just a Game. Has since been retired.

3. Going Global. This 3-year-old filly upset Princess Grace on the Breeders' Cup undercard and now has quietly won five graded stakes this season. My only knock on her is that she never left her home base of California in 2021. She will go for her second Grade 1 win of the season this weekend at Santa Anita.

4. Santa Barbara. Was a dual Grade 1 winner in this country in 2021. She died tragically of a pelvic injury in September, but her resume in this country places here in the top five.

5. Mean Mary. No excuses in the Beverly D, but she was game to hold the runner-up spot. She was simply second best to Santa Barbara. Prior to the Beverly D she was victorious in the New York Stakes (G2) and previous to winning that race, Mean Mary was best in the Gallorette Stakes (G3) at Pimlico. Has since been retired because of injury.

Next 5: Regal Glory, Princess Grace, Blowout, My Sister Nat, Going to Vegas.

Male sprinters

1. Dr. Schivel. This guy proved his worth in the Breeders' Cup Sprint, silencing many who doubted he could hang with Jackie's Warrior. He wasn't far off of the pace set by Jackie's Warrior, and he came running in the stretch only to drop a heartbreaking nose decision to Aloha West. He must be ranked No. 1 here based off his resume. He owns a Grade 1 win over older, something Jackie's Warrior does not. He also defeated Jackie's Warrior in the Breeders' Cup Sprint. He might run in the Malibu (G1) later this month to solidify his Eclipse resume.

2. Jackie's Warrior. Ran the worst race of his career in the Breeders' Cup Sprint as he didn't have an answer turning for home after setting honest fractions. He was outstanding in his previous three starts, all wins. But his resume just is not as good as Dr. Schivel's.

3. Aloha West. Rockets all the way to No. 3 after not being ranked previously. The Breeders' Cup Sprint winner closed stoutly in the stretch to win by a nose. The Breeders' Cup was his first graded-stakes win.

4. Following Sea. Ran well in last weekend's  Cigar Mile finishing runner-up to fellow 3-year-old Americanrevolution. Prior to last weekend the Vosburgh (G2) winner ran very well in the Breeders' Cup Sprint, finishing third. 

5. Flagstaff. Tough old veteran fired again in the Santa Anita Sprint Championship (G2) when finishing second. Earlier this season he was second best in the True North (G2) and won the Churchill Down Stakes (G1). Missed the Breeders' Cup and has been retired.

Next 5: Special Reserve, Ginobili, Lexitonian, C Z Rocket, Firenze Fire.

Female sprinters

1. Gamine. The beaten Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint favorite is still tops in this division. Will win the Eclipse based off her entire 2021 resume.

2. Ce Ce. Winner of the Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint, she got good at the right time of the year. She won't win the Eclipse, but the future looks very bright heading into 2022.

3. Bella Sofia. This 3-year-old filly prompted the pace set by Gamine in the Breeders' Cup but, like Gamine, had no answer in the stretch when finishing fourth.

4. Bell's the One. Prevailed in the Thoroughbred Club of America Stakes (G2) by a neck but skipped the Breeders’ Cup. She has won three stakes this year, two of which were graded. Won her last start, the Dream Supreme Stakes at Churchill Downs.

5. Sconsin. Super effort last out in the Open Mind Stakes and scratched out of the recent Dream Supreme Stakes against Bell's the One.

Next 5: Estilo Talentoso, Edgeway, Lake Avenue, Kimari, Frank's Rockette.

2-year-old males
1. Corniche. The Breeders' Cup Juvenile winner moves up to this spot and likely will also get the Eclipse in this division based off of his 3-for-3 record. 2. Jack Christopher. Had to scratch out of the Breeders' Cup, but previously he won the Champagne (G1) in dominant fashion. He is 2-for-2 on his career and will still get some votes for the Eclipse. 3. Major General. Winner of both his starts, he won the Iroquois Stakes (G3) last month. 4. Rattle N Roll. Impressive winner of the Breeders' Futurity (G1), he skipped the Breeders' Cup. 5. Pappacap. Runner-up to Corniche in this last two starts, he has to move up based just on that. Next 5: Smile Happy, Mo Donegal, Slow Down Andy, Pinehurst, Giant Game.
2-year-old females

1. Echo Zulu. The best 2-year-old in the country, she was dominant in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies, winning by over five lengths. Completes an unbeaten 4-for-4 season with three Grade 1 wins, a rarity for 2-year-olds nowadays. Forget the Kentucky Derby talk, we need to see if she returns at age three with similar form, remember Vequist from a year ago. Will start her 2022 season at the Fair Grounds 2. Juju's Map. Ran well in the Breeders' Cup but was second best to Echo Zulu. Previously she was the winner of the Alcibiades (G1) as the favorite at Keeneland after breaking her maiden at Ellis Park. 3. Ain't Easy. Facile winner of the Chandelier (G2) at Santa Anita, she is 2-for-2 thus far in her career but skipped the Breeders' Cup. 4. Hidden Connection. Disappointed in the Breeders' Cup, finishing fourth. The Midwest star previously had won both her starts, the Pocahontas Stakes (G3) being her last. 5. Tarabi. Three starts for this gal, and she has placed in each. She was second to Echo Zulu in the Spinaway (G1) over the summer and finished third to that rival in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies.
Next 5: Eda, Behave Virginia, Dance to the Music, Happy Soul, Pizza Bianca.

The connections of Dr. Schivel have been very transparent, they are running in this weekend's Malibu (G1) to try and bolster their case for the sprint Eclipse Award. Moves like this are rare nowadays this late in the season, but with Dr. Schivel locked into a tight Eclipse race with his rival, Jackie's Warrior, another Grade 1 win would be enough to put him on top in some voters minds.

For me, though, Dr. Schivel has already done enough. It's plainly clear. Dr. Schivel has won a Grade 1 event over older males and in his only meeting with Jackie's Warrior he soundly defeated him by 4 1/2 lengths in the Breeders' Cup Sprint.

That nose loss in the Breeders' Cup was as good as win for me. Dr. Schivel proved a lot to me in that race. But here is where it gets tricky.

By running in the Malibu Dr. Schivel is also risking some support from voters such as myself. Were he to run poorly and be well beaten, I would strongly consider elevating Jackie's Warrior back to the top spot. Still, for me at least, it would take an extreme form reversal for Dr. Schivel to do just that.

I expect Dr. Schivel to win the Malibu on Sunday, he is clearly the best horse entered, contrary to what many believe.

Quick thoughts on the Malibu morning line favorite, Flightline. The hype surrounding this horse has been at a fever pitch, and for me anyway, way over the top. 

While it is true Flightline has looked good in both of his starts, a maiden and optional claiming win, the competition he is up against Sunday towers over what he had faced in his previous two starts. 

Flightline defeated a total of 11 horses combined in those wins, and those 11 horses have come back with dismal results since. In 24 combined starts those 11 horses have posted just five wins since facing Flightline, in claiming company ($20,000, $30,000, and $50,000), optional claiming company, and a MSW. Extrapolate the numbers further and you will find that nine of the eleven horses Flightline faced have struggled with off the board finishes in starter allowance and optional claiming races since.

To date, the best horse Flightline has faced has been Positivity, who has won an optional claimer and finished second against fellow Cal-breds in the listed Cary Grant Stakes last month.

To see Flightline as a morning like favorite over a multiple Grade 1 winning and proven sprinter such as Dr. Schivel is somewhat shocking and will likely not hold up. 

So yes, I am skeptical of Flightline in this spot. If he is up to the task, great, we have a new star in the making, but history has shown that Flightline has a tall task ahead of him on Sunday.

The other horse running on Sunday who could garner some Eclipse support is Going Global.

Ranked No. 3 below, Going Global has risen the ranks over the past few months and could tie for the most Grade 1 wins in the Turf Female division this weekend in the American Oaks were she to win.

A winner of six stakes this season, five of which were graded, and she did defeat older two starts back, which included the accomplished Princess Grace. One of the knocks I have on Going Global is that she hasn't left her home base of California this season and her connections chose to skip the Breeders' Cup and instead run in the Goldikova Stakes (G2) on the undercard.

That decision will probably cost her when it comes time to cast ballots should she get the job this weekend.

Voters have a variety of ways to go when it comes to the Turf Female division. No doubt some will choose to reward the Japanese filly, Loves Only You off her one start in this country, a narrow win in the Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf. Others such as myself will reward War Like Goddess based off her entire 2021 resume, despite her narrow defeat in the aforementioned Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Turf. 

For Going Global this weekend, Eclipse consideration is in play, but winning the award is still a long shot.