Division Rankings: 5 names remain for Horse of the Year

With a little over four week left until the Breeder's Cup, the Horse of the Year race is down to a select few horses.

A case can be made for five horses, pending the results of the Breeders' Cup. Some are strong cases, while others will be up for much debate. 

Before I take a look at five horses who are left with a chance at this year-end award, lets take a look at this week's updated Division Rankings:

Older dirt males

1. Knicks Go. Passed his final test last weekend in the Lukas Classic (G3) and now his connections will prepare him for the Breeders' Cup Classic, his first race at 10 furlongs. With two Grade 1 wins on the season, he leads this division. A win away from the Eclipse in this division and Horse of the Year.

2. Maxfield. Missed another chance at a Grade 1 win when he was a disappointing runner-up in last weekend's Woodward to Art Collector. I am gonna go ahead and leave this guy here at No. 2. Why? Well, for starters he was stuck behind a very slow pace that Art Collector was allowed to get away with, additionally, Maxfield has run well in several starts over the whole season, from coast to coast. Although he is 0-3 in Grade 1 starts this season he hasn't missed the board, and he has won three graded stakes.

3. Silver State. I am going to leave him here at No. 3 despite his bizarre loss last out in the Parx Mile when he inexplicably lost focus and in the final yards to let Mind Control come back on the rail to beat him. Count me among those who felt he was much the best in the race, especially when taking into account that he was far back behind slow fractions. He will be tough to beat in this next start, the Breeders' Cup Dirt Mile. Not out of this Eclipse race just yet.

4. Max Player. The winner of the Suburban (G2) and Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1) in his last two starts, he clearly is better than ever. However, the JCGC field was historically weak, but then again, this division isn't the strongest either. Already in California preparing for the Breeders' Cup Classic.

5. Art Collector. Moves into the top five here off of his win in the Woodward last week where he was allowed to set a tepid pace and prevail in the stretch. The waters get much deeper next out in the Breeders' Cup Classic. Hard to envision him being a factor in the 10 furlong Classic which is coming up very deep this season.

Next 5: Mystic Guide, Tripoli, Dr. Post, Express Train, Happy Saver.

Older dirt females

1. Letruska. Will face six others in this weekend's Spinster (G1) at Keeneland prior to her Breeders' Cup Distaff engagement. In her last start at Saratoga, she ran the best race of her career in the Personal Ensign (G1) as she was hounded through quick early fractions, but was able find enough run the stretch to hold the closers at bay while the others who pressed the pace were far back at the finish. With this divisional Eclipse now sewn up, Horse of the Year is very much in play. A Grade 1 winner in both the U.S. and Mexico, she is 16-for-21 in her career. Can she keep this form together for these last two starts after such a tough last race? These last two races will be tough.

2. Shedaresthedevil. Last out she was game to get the job done by a neck in the Locust Grove (G3) at Churchill Downs, and previous to that she was sensational in her trip out west to take the Grade 1 Clement Hirsch. The win was important for another reason, it came over the same Del Mar surface that the Breeder's Cup Distaff will be run on next month. Don't underestimate the importance of that fact. She showed that she can ship across country and win. She is clearly the biggest threat now to Letruska in the Breeders' Cup, but not for the Eclipse, that ship has sailed.

3. Bonny South. Her runner-up finish in the Personal Ensign was her second Grade 1 placing of the season. Her lone win in 2021 came in the Doubledogdare (G3) at Churchill Downs. The biggest threat to Letruska in this weekend's Spinster.

4. Royal Flag. Finished a good third to Letruska last out in the Personal Ensign, and previous to that she won the Shuvee (G3) at the end of July at Saratoga. Will be favored in this weekend's Beldame (G2) at Belmont.

5. As Time Goes By. Tough choice to fill this spot but based on her early season exploits this filly deserves to he here. Two-time Grade 2 winner this season and was runner-up in the Grade 1 Beholder Mile. She ran okay last week when finishing runner-up in the Zenyatta (G1), but clearly is a cut below the top horses in this division.

Next 5: Envoutante, Crystal Ball, Gamine, Antoinette, Venetian Harbor.

3-year-old males

1. Essential Quality. The Travers was his fifth graded stakes win on the season, the most of any horse in any division. Clearly has this No. 1 spot by a wide margin. He will train up to the Breeders' Cup Classic, where a win at Del Mar will net this guy Horse of the Year. He will not ship to Del Mar until Nov. 1.

2. Medina Spirit. Folks, if you have dislike for the human connections, toss them aside. His win in last weekend's Awesome Again (G1) over older horses was the best race of his career, and the second fastest route race run by a 3-year-old male in 2021. He also became the only 3-year-old male to defeat older males in a Grade 1 thus far this season. As I wrote last week, strap yourselves in, as there will be much debate on his Breeders' Cup Classic chances, and his worthiness for the Eclipse and Horse of the Year, should he win the Classic. 

3. Hot Rod Charlie. Was simply sensational in his Penn Derby win. In running the second fastest two-turn race this season, speed figure wise, this guy will be among the top betting choices in the Breeders' Cup Classic. Leaving it out on the track every time he runs, he and Essential Quality have been the pillars of this division since last fall. He too is in with a longshot chance for year-end hardware.

4. Jackie's Warrior. Another dominant win, this time in the Gallant Bob (G2) at Parx, he ran another giant speed figure. He has developed into the best sprinters in the country now, and will be the favorite in the Breeders' Cup Sprint over older horses. Certainly the best 3-year-old male sprinter since Runhappy.

5. Midnight Bourbon. Has really brought his "A" game in his last two starts. He was a clear second best last out in the Penn Derby to "Hot Rod", and previous to that was a close runner-up to Essential Quality in the Travers. Connections have decided to skip the BC with him and point to possibly the Clark at Churchill later this fall with an eye on the big races in early 2022.

Next 5: Life is Good, Mandaloun, Rombauer, Stilleto Boy, King Fury.

3-year-old females

1. Malathaat. Took care of business the way a prohibitive favorite should have in the Alabama (G1) at Saratoga. Now a winner of  the three Grade 1 events on the season, the Eclipse is a virtually locked up, and she will now train up to the Breeders' Cup Distaff.  Win or lose in the Breeders' Cup, she will get my vote in this division.

2. Clairiere. Has stepped up nicely in her last two, winning the Cotillion (G1) last out as much the best. Ran a really good race in the Alabama to finished runner-up to Malathaat prior and now heads to the Breeders' Cup Distaff. 

3. Search Results. Cutting back to the seven-furlong Test Stakes (G1) last out, she finished an even third. Previously she was an impressive winner of the Acorn, which was her first Grade 1 win. Suffered her only loss, to Malathaat, in the Kentucky Oaks earlier this season, but she was game in defeat. Her connections have decided to take her out of training and point to a 4-year-old campaign. Will likely drop from this spot in the coming weeks.

4. Private Mission. Late bloomer defeated older in the Zenyatta (G1) last week and has been impressive in three starts this season, all wins. Fresh filly could be dangerous in the Breeders' Cup Distaff on her home track. Reminds me a bit of Hollywood Wildcat in 1993 who also burst onto the scene late in her sophomore season and ended up defeating all comers in the Distaff.

5. Soothsay. Showing tremendous fight and determination in the stretch of her Indiana Oaks win, Soothsay looked like a different horse than the one we saw previously in her loss to Crazy Beautiful in the Summertime Oaks. The Indiana race was her first race outside of Santa Anita too, any way you slice it, she is now a player in this division with the Breeders' Cup in her backyard too. Another that has matured right before our eyes but now is done racing for the year, her racing future in doubt.

Next 5: Army Wife, Obligatory, Crazy Beautiful, Zaajel, Maracuja.

Turf males

1. Domestic Spending. Runner-up in the Mister D (G1), he couldn't overcome a slow place set by winner Two Emmys. The loss leaves this division still open for the taking. He has won two Grade 1 events this season, his facile Manhattan Stakes (G1) win at Belmont was superb, defeating several others ranked below. Will train up to the Breeders' Cup Turf according to trainer Chad Brown.

2. Mo Forza. I'm not so sure he isn't the best grass horse in the country right now. I almost placed him No. 1, but he simply doesn't have the resume to unseat Domestic Spending right now. Was sensational again last week in his City of Hope Mile (G2) win. He will be the Breeders' Cup Mile favorite and is very much in this Eclipse race, despite not winning a Grade 1 yet this season. Has won eight of his last nine starts over the last 24 months.

3. Smooth Like Strait. Another tough luck runner-up finish to his rival, Mo Forza. Last weekend it was a 1/2 length defeat in the City of Hope Mile, the previous start it was a head loss in the Del Mar Mile (G2). As honest as they come, and is sure to be in the mix turning for home in the Breeders' Cup Mile, his next start.

4. Gufo. The winner of the Grade 1 Sword Dancer last out, he faces a stiff test in this weekend's Joe Hirsch Turf Classic Stakes (G1) at Belmont Park. With another win he too will be a real threat for the Eclipse in this division. If all goes well this weekend, he will head to the Breeders' Cup Turf next month.

5. Colonel Liam. Running since December, this guy also has two Grade 1 wins on his resume, but he sports a Grade 2 win in 2021 too. True, he did go down to defeat in the Manhattan, but it was his first loss of 2021. He has been running since January and has won three stakes. Off since that Manhattan loss.

Next 5: United, Japan, Hit the Road, Cross Border, Tribhuvan.

Turf females

1. Althiqa. Will finally make her return to the races this weekend in the First Lady (G1) at Keeneland. Previously she won back-to-back Grade 1 events, the Diana and Just a Game. Having also won a Group 2 event overseas, she deserves this top spot right now. The simple facts are this, if the season ended today, she would win the Eclipse in this division. 

2. War Like Goddess. Dominant again, this time in the Flower Bowl (G1), she is a serious contender now for this Eclipse. Previously she won the Glens Falls (G2) at Saratoga and was a winner of two other graded races earlier this season. She has only one loss from six career starts, and has certainly stepped up her game now for trainer Bill Mott. 

3. Santa Barbara. Very sad news that this filly died after a pelvic injury worsened a few of weeks ago. In two starts stateside she was dominant over her own age group in the Belmont Oaks (G1) and then over older in the Beverly D (G1). 

4. Princess Grace. Unbeaten in three starts this season, she won the Kentucky Downs Ladies Turf (G3) last time out.

5. Mean Mary. No excuses in the Beverly D but she was game to hold the runner-up spot. She was simply second best. Prior to the Beverly D she was victorious in the New York Stakes (G2) and previous to that winning race, Mean Mary was best in the Gallorette Stakes (G3) at Pimlico. Has since been retired due to injury.next week.

Next 5: Going to Vegas, Thundering Nights, Viadera, Blowout, Summer Romance.

Male sprinters

1. Jackie's Warrior. He was outstanding in his last three starts, all wins. Last out in the Gallant Bloom he dominated an overmatched field. He is the best 3-year-old male sprinter we have seen since Runhappy in 2015, and has shown an uncanny ability to handle torrid fractions and have enough in the stretch to find the wire first.

2. Dr. Schivel. He's no fluke. He was dominant in the Santa Anita Sprint Championship, drawing off by over three lengths. Another 3-year-old male, this guy will give Jackie's Warrior a serious test come Breeders' Cup time. Previously he was all heart in the Bing Crosby (G1) defeating several tough veteran sprinters. Has never been off the board in seven starts.

3. C Z Rocket. Ran good in the Santa Anita Sprint Champhionship but he just didn't have his late punch and was nosed out by Flagstaff ro the runner-up spot. Still feel this guy will be tough come Breeders' Cup time, but needs a quick pace to have any sort of shot being that he a deep closer. 

4. Flagstaff. Tough old veteran fired again in the Pat O'Brien where he finished third. He too will be tough to beat come Breeders' Cup time. Previously he was second best in the True North (G2) and won the Grade 1 Churchill Down Stakes. He too will run in the Santa Anita Sprint Championship.

5. Firenze Fire. One of the most popular horses in training now thanks to his antics in the Forego (G1) where he was runner-up after savaging Yaupon. He is among the best in this division and will run in this weekend's Vosburgh (G2), a race he won last season.

Next 5: Life is Good, Lexitonian, Special Reserve, Ginobili, Baby Yoda.

Female sprinters

1. Gamine. Got the job done again, this time in the Ballerina (G1) at Saratoga. She has sewn up the Eclipse in this division as far as I'm concerned, no matter what happens on Breeders' Cup Day. She hasn't lost a race since last year's Kentucky Oaks.

2. Bell's the One. Was edged by Sconsin last out in the Open Mind Stakes but defeated her two starts back in the Roxelana. Won the Honorable Miss (G2) previous to the Open Mind Stakes. Will run again this weekend in the Thoroughbred Club of America Stakes (G2) at Keeneland

3. Sconsin. Super effort last out in the Open Mind Stakes and may be the most dangerous to Gamine on Breeders' Cup day. Needs a hot pace to have a realistic shot at defeating Gamine at Del Mar. 

4. Ce Ce. Easy winner of her final Breeders' Cup prep, last weekend's Chillingworth Stakes (G3) at Santa Anita. Previously, she showed she belongs with the best this division has to offer as she finished third in the Ballerina, beaten just three lengths. She is not without a chance in the Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint, should she go.

5. Bella Sofia. This 3-year-old filly will be the pick by many to upset Gamine in the Breeders' Cup. She has been dominant in her two sprint stakes starts, the Test (G1) at Saratoga and the Gallant Bloom (G2) at Belmont.

Next 5: Kimari, Lake Avenue, Estilo Talentoso, Edgeway, Frank's Rockette

2-Year-Old Males

1. Jack Christopher. The Champagne (G1) winner from last weekend is now 2-for-2 on his career, but it was the way he won the Champagne that caught many eyes. He ran the fastest race, speed figure wise, by a 2-year-old male since 2017.

2. Corniche. This fast maiden winner didn't disappoint in the American Pharoah Stakes (G1) at Santa Anita, running away by over three lengths for the win.

3. Pinehurst. Unbeaten in two starts, including his last out win in the Del Mar Futurity (G1), but both his wins were slow on the speed figure side as compared to others in these rankings.

4. Major General. Winner of both his start, he won the Iroquois Stakes (G3) last month.

5. Wit. Beaten nearly 10 lengths in the Champagne, he really had no excuse. Previously, he was the beaten favorite in the Hopeful after a nightmarish start. He may be best at under a mile.

Next 5: Commandperformance, Gunite, Pappacap, High Oak, Albahr.

2-Year-Old Females

1. Echo Zulu. Stays atop here after another Grade 1 win, this time in the Frizette by over seven lengths. Previous to that she won the Spinaway (G1) at Saratoga. The clear cut Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies favorite

2. Hidden Connection. The Midwest star has won both her starts, the Pocahontas Stakes (G3) was her last start. The Breeders' Cup is next.

3. Ain't Easy. Facile winner of the Chandelier (G2) at Santa Anita, she is 2-for-2 thus far in her career and the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies will be next.

4. Wild Beauty. Daughter of the great Frankel started her career overseas but then came to Canada and won the Grade 1 Natalma at Woodbine. Should run next in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf.

5. Wicked Halo. Hasn't run since her win in the Adirondack Stakes (G2) in early August at Saratoga.

Next 5: Behave Virginia, Tarabi, Happy Soul, Electric Ride, Averly Jane.

Avid readers of this column are well versed with my thoughts on all of the divisions. Some agree, and some disagree. That’s what makes this game great - the varying opinions by the most knowledgeable fan base of any sport.

We are 40 weeks into this season, and that means 40 weeks of analysis of each division with the Division Rankings. It's safe to say that we have our bases covered when discussing which horses are worthy of Horse of the Year. I write "we" because I take into account what every reader thinks via their comments underneath these rankings each and every week and often use that wealth of knowledge when formulating these rankings.

There are only five horses who could get my Horse of the Year vote, and only one horse, in my opinion, controls their own Horse of the Year fate while the other four will need to win their respective Breeders’ Cup races and get some help.

Knicks Go, the No. 1 ranked older dirt male, is a win away in the Breeders’ Cup Classic from securing my Horse of the Year vote. Knicks Go has been in action since January when he scored in the Grade 1 Pegasus World Cup, and Del Mar will be the seventh racetrack he has run over in 2021. In other words, he has had a full 2021.

A win in the Classic would be his third Grade 1 win on the season, and while my second likeliest HOY contender could be hot on his heels if she takes care of business, I can’t envision a scenario where Knicks Go is denied Horse of the Year if he wins the Classic, defeating a strong group of 3-year-old males. Even a loss by Knicks Go in the Classic, providing he runs well and Essential Quality doesn’t win the Classic, will still net him HOY votes.

Letruska can’t quite control her own destiny, but she does have a clear path to Horse of the Year, in my opinion. First off, she runs this weekend in the Spinster, and this will be no easy task. Should she take care of business at Keeneland and win her fourth Grade 1 win of the season, she will head to Del Mar with the second best shot at securing Horse of the Year.

For Letruska, she would need to win the Breeders’ Cup Distaff and have Knicks Go lose the Classic. A win in the Distaff would be her fifth Grade 1 win on the season, by the far the most of any horse in training. She too has had a full schedule in 2021, running since January. Some will argue that one of the 3-year-olds could win HOY if they were to win the Classic, maybe so, but my vote will go to Letruska should this scenario play out.

Essential Quality has sat atop his division as the top 3-year-old for the most weeks in 2021, and he is in position to close out the season with his divisional Eclipse, but what about Horse of the Year? Obviously he has to win the Breeders’ Cup Classic, his next start. For some that will be enough to net him Horse of the Year, but not me.

Essential Quality’s Horse of the Year path is somewhat clear like Letruska’s. If he wins the Classic and Letruska loses the Distaff, Essential Quality will get my Horse of the Year vote.

Finally, two other 3-year-old males have outside chances at Horse of the Year that will surely stir up much debate. But I would be remiss if I didn’t state the stone cold facts.

Regarding the Kentucky Derby winner Medina Spirit, if you harbor dislike for the human connections, please try and push that aside, this isn’t about them, it’s about the horse. As of this writing he is the Kentucky Derby winner, and likely will be for the remainder of the season and beyond.

Fresh off of his win in the Grade 1 Awesome Again against older horses, Medina Spirit is now a win away in the Breeders’ Cup Classic from not only unseating Essential Quality for my divisional Eclipse vote, but also tossing his hat into the Horse of the Year race.

The facts are this, should he win the Breeders’ Cup Classic he will have defeated his 3-year-old rivals, Essential Quality and Hot Rod Charlie, again. He would run his record to 2-0 vs. Essential Quality and 3-0 vs. Hot Rod Charlie. Additionally, he would own wins in the two biggest races of the season. The divisional Eclipse will be a certainty if he wins the Classic, as he would be the only one of the “big three” to actually defeat older horses in a race.

Since the advent of the Breeders’ Cup, only four 3-year-old males have won the Kentucky Derby and Breeders’ Cup Classic. All but one went on to win Horse of the Year, Unbridled in 1990 who lost out to the very accomplished older male, Criminal Type, who had defeated Easy Goer and Sunday Silence in Grade 1 events that season.

Still, this is a tough call. Medina Spirit would also need Letruska to lose her race, and it would also depend on the race dynamics of the Classic, how he won the race, how the losing horses ran, etc.

Lastly, the least likeliest, but still in with a remote shot at Horse of the Year, is Hot Rod Charlie. What sticks out to me is his Haskell DQ, that will really come back to hurt him should he come out victorious in the Classic.

Think about it, if he ran a straight course and wasn’t disqualified in the Haskell he would be heading into the Breeders’ Cup Classic off back-to-back Grade 1 wins, something no other 3-year-old male has accomplished this season, and be a prime HOY candidate.

For Hot Rod Charlie, he will surely get some HOY votes if he wins the Classic, but for my vote he would need a facile win in the Classic and a complete no show by Letruska in her last two starts of the season. Even then, it would be tough. Knicks Go will still probably get the majority of votes providing he makes a good account of himself in the Classic.