Division rankings: After long break, Nest is set for a return

Nest, the popular winner of the Eclipse last season as the top 3-year-old filly, has been absent for the first six months of this season. That all changes in a couple of weeks when Nest is scheduled to make her highly anticipated return to the races in the Grade 2 Shuvee at Saratoga on July 22. 

Nest is scheduled to face the No. 1 ranked horse in her division, Clairiere, in the Shuvee.

This will be no easy task for Nest.

Before I touch on the Shuvee and my thoughts on Nest, let's take a look at this week's updated division rankings.

Older dirt males

1. Cody's Wish. Has to be ranked here for now on the basis of his two Grade 1 wins this season. I write "has to" because he has yet to win a stakes beyond a mile. He was stellar in the Met Mile (G1) last time out, and the next logical spot will be to try to stretch out to nine panels in the Whitney (G1) in August at Saratoga. In the same boat that Mitole was in a few years back and Life Is Good last year as far as distance limitations, and it will be tough to secure an Eclipse other than the sprint award unless he can stretch out successfully. No horse has won the Eclipse in this division who hasn’t won at nine furlongs or more since the inception of the awards more than 50 years ago. A long shot, in my opinion, to come out on top here by year's end or to even run in the Breeders' Cup Classic.

2. West Will Power. The winner of the Stephen Foster (G1), he beat several ranked below. Now 2-for-4 on the season, he appears to be a major player in this division. Will head to Saratoga and the Whitney (G1) for his next start.

3. Defunded. Hard-knocking gelding won the Hollywood Gold Cup (G1) on Memorial Day. Two graded-stakes wins this season from four starts, and he hasn't been off the board in any of them. In the best form of his career.

4. Rattle N Roll. This guy was very good at age two, struggled at the top level last year at age three, but now has made it all the way back to the top level with three graded stakes wins this season. Last out his runner-up to West Will Power in the Stephen Foster proved he is for real as it was by far the best field he has faced this season.

5. Smile Happy. Had all sorts of issues last out in the Stephen Foster before the race was even run. He clearly didn't want to run and had to be backed some 200 yards into the gate in order to race. Anyone with the horses well being in mind who witnessed this fiasco prior to the race had to come away stunned that he wasn't a late scratch. Thankfully, he completed his trip around the Ellis Park oval without any mishaps finishing fifth, beaten a little over five lengths. I will give him a mulligan for this one. Previously he was super impressive on Kentucky Oaks day when winning the Alysheba (G2). He should be a player in this division in races up to nine furlongs. I just can't see him being a serious threat if he is forced to run 10 furlongs.

Next 5: Art Collector, Stiletto Boy, Last Samurai, Proxy, Hopper.

Older dirt females

1. Clairiere. The clear leader of the division, she ran down Search Results in the Ogden Phipps (G1) on Belmont day, winning that event for the second year in a row. A valid case can be made that she has been the best older filly or mare the last two seasons, but she has been a bit unlucky. With two Grade 1 wins now this season, the Eclipse will go through this daughter of Curlin. Will start next at Saratoga, pointing to two races. First up is the Shuvee (G2) on July 29, where she will meet Nest, and then the Personal Ensign (G1) on Aug. 25.

2. Search Results. Have to feel for her connections as she was a tough-luck runner-up yet again, this time to Clairiere in the Ogden Phipps. In her previous start she was a close third, beaten two heads in the La Troienne (G1).

3. Played Hard. Ran well to be third in the Phipps to Clairiere. Won the La Troienne in her only other start this season. Off the board only two times in 16 career starts.

4. Secret Oath. She simply didn't fire in the Phipps, finishing fifth and beaten over 12 lengths. Now 1-for-4 on the season, the Phipps was the worst start of her career. She is the only horse to have beaten Clairiere this season.

5. Adare Manor. Likely the best of the west, this gal has Santa Maria (G2) and Santa Margarita (G2) in her last two starts. Overall she is 3-for-4 on the season.

Next 5: A Mo Reay, Pass the Champagne, Fun to Dream, Pauline's Pearl, Eda.

3-year-old males

1. Forte. Was here at No. 1 prior to the Kentucky Derby and nothing that took place in the Triple Crown events was enough to displace him. Much like Epicenter a year ago, will stay here despite not winning a Triple Crown race. His Belmont effort was superb given the circumstances. He has swept both of his meetings with Kentucky Derby winner Mage, and the one time he faced Preakness runner-up Blazing Sevens this season he defeated him by more than 25 lengths. Will be favored over any other 3-year-old in whatever his next start will be, either the Jim Dandy (G2) at Saratoga or Haskell (G1) at Monmouth.

2. Mage. His Preakness third-place finish is a complicated one to analyze. He certainly was in good position throughout, but he didn't have enough at the end. The race he ran in the Derby, combined with the stitches and the fresh horses he faced, got him beaten by more than a slow pace in Baltimore. After all is said and done, this guy has a maiden win and a Kentucky Derby win, the same boat as Rich Strike from a year ago. I hope we see him in the major events this summer.

3. Angel of Empire. Disappointed in the Belmont, and I partly blame his trainer. For all the good press Brad Cox receives, why put blinkers on him? I agree with several who commented before and after the race on this move. Why ask him for speed? This was a textbook example of how to screw up (front-load) a group-herd-dynamic horse's energy distribution. The Arkansas Derby (G1) winner finished a close third in the Kentucky Derby, and I still feel that he one of the top five 3-year-old males.

4. Arcangelo. Very impressed with his Belmont win as he had a golden trip up the rail to post a facile win over a strong field. But this was the Belmont, a 12-furlong race that is known to produce out-of-the-box results. Likely will point to the Travers (G1) next but wouldn't be favored in a race over any of the above. The Belmont was his second stakes win in five starts.

5. National Treasure. His Preakness win was his first stakes win. Prior to the Preakness he was off the board in the Santa Anita Derby (G1) and in his most recent race, the Belmont Stakes, he was off the board when sixth.

Next 5: Arabian Lion, Tapit Trice, Practical Move, Arabian Knight, Disarm

3-year-old females

1. Pretty Mischievous. Took a big lead in this division with her Acorn (G1) win last week. Before that she scored in the Kentucky Oaks (G1). She has won the two biggest events that her division has to offer so far this season. She is now 6-for-8 on her career, never finishing off the board. Is targeting the Coaching Club American Oaks (G1) on July 22, followed by the Alabama (G1) on Aug. 19, both at Saratoga.

2. Wet Paint. Couldn't overcome a ridiculously slow pace set by Hoosier Philly in the Monomoy Girl Stakes, where she finished second. Still keeping her ranked here for now. Finished fourth as the favorite in the Kentucky Oaks before the Monomoy Girl after demolishing the Fantasy (G3) field at Oaklawn.

3. Gambling Girl. Nearly pulled off the Kentucky Oaks upset, losing by a neck. Winless in four starts this season but has placed in two graded stakes.

4. Faiza. Disappointed as the favorite last out in the Black-Eyed Susan (G2), where she finished third. The loss snapped a five-race win streak to start her career, and four of those were graded events.

5. Window Shopping. Won the Summertime Oaks (G2) last out defeating The Alys Look, and before that she was third in Faiza's Santa Anita Oaks (G1).

Next 5: Hoosier Philly, Dorth Vader, Taxed, The Alys Look, Southlawn

Turf males

1. Up to the Mark. Was superb last out winning the Manhattan (G1) at Belmont Park, giving him two Grade 1 wins on this season, a rarity for this division the last few years. Do we finally have a grass horse based in the U.S. who can make noise this fall in the Breeders' Cup when the big guns come in from overseas? The jury is out. He certainly has handled the fields he has faced in his last two starts, both of which were Grade 1 wins. But if we are being honest, the fields he has beaten were suspect, and two months ago he faced two horses ranked in this top five and was soundly defeated when third in the Makers Mark Mile (G1). So for now this guy will reside here, but there is a long way to go.

2. Exaulted. Since being moved to the grass from the dirt, this guy is 4-for-4. His win in the Shoemaker Mile (G1) was his second graded-stakes victory of the season, and he may very well be the best in this division right now. Bigger things could be in store for this son of Twirling Candy. Won't return until early September in the Del Mar Mile (G2).

3. Modern Games. Fourth at Royal Ascot, he has lost five of his last six overseas. The runner-up in the Maker's Mark Mile (G1) earlier this year. This guy won the Eclipse last season and at least has made a start in this country already.

4. Casa Creed. Ran well in the Jaipur (G1), finishing a close third to Caravel. Now a 7-year-old, he is in the best form of his career. He ran lights out when narrowly missing in Saudi Arabia earlier this year in the Turf Sprint (G3) and finished second. The Saudi race was his first start this season. He too should run next at Saratoga.

5. Chez Pierre. No way around it, he disappointed in the Poker (G3), finishing third last out at Belmont Park. The Poker was only his second loss on the lawn. The Maker's Mark Mile winner will make his next appearance at Saratoga.

Next 5: Emmanuel, Ottoman Fleet, Hong Kong Harry, Spooky Channel, Never Explain

Turf females

1. In Italian. Has taken a firm hold of the division now with her win in the Just a Game (G1) last out coupled with the loss by War Like Goddess in her race. With two Grade 1 wins on this season, she is in the best form of her career. Will run next in the Diana (G1) at Saratoga next weekend.

2. Caravel. This gal is a turf sprinter but she has to move to this spot now after her win over the boys in the Jaipur (G1) at Belmont Park. She is 3-for-3 this season. Both of her graded-stakes wins this season have come over males.

3. War Like Goddess. The favorite in the New York Stakes (G1), this gal likes to come from far back and, given the ridiculously slow fractions, she was up against it and finished off the board for only the second time in 15 career starts. There was something different about this effort as she has overcome ultra-slow fractions before, and it didn't appear that the spark was there. She was beaten just a little over two lengths in finishing sixth.

4. Marketsegmentation. The winner of the New York Stakes, this gal has won three stakes races in a row and is 3-for-4 on the season. The New York was her first Grade 1 win.

5. Didia. Ran well in the New York Stakes (G1), narrowly defeated as the runner-up. The loss in the New York snapped a seven-race win streak. Previously she won the Modesty (G3) at Churchill Downs.

Next 5: With the Moonlight, Fluffy Socks, Spendarella, Higher Truth, Queen Goddess

Male sprinters

1. Elite Power. Two starts this year, and in those two starts he has has really elevated his stature. He overpowered the True North (G2) field last out and now will head to Saratoga to target both big sprint races there, the Vanderbilt (G1) on July 29 and the Forego (G1) on Aug. 26. Building a resume of early-season wins, much like Jackie's Warrior last season. But as we have learned previously, it isn't enough for Eclipse voters who demand wins in the last month or two of the season. Is ranked above Cody's Wish because this guy is the Eclipse winner and hasn't lost since.

2. Cody's Wish. Do we keep him ranked down here with the sprinters? Sure we do. He has one Grade 1 sprint race win this year, the Churchill Downs Stakes (G1), and last out he dominated the Met Mile (G1). Could try to stretch out, but just as likely will be back going a mile or less. Because of his connections, we likely will never see the matchup we all want to see, this guy vs. Elite Power going seven furlongs.

3. Spirit of Makena. The best of the West Coast sprinters right now, he has won all three of his starts this season. Last out, he overpowered the Triple Bend (G2) field, and before that he won the San Carlos (G2).

4. Gunite. Disappointed somewhat in the Dubai Golden Shaheen (G1) when third as the favorite. Before that he was simply the best of the rest when runner-up to Elite Power in Saudi Arabia. He overpowered the Aristides Stakes last out, beating four others.

5. Sibelius. Surprise winner of the Golden Shaheen, defeating Gunite, among others. Before that this guy won the listed Pelican Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs. Won his first graded stakes in late December at Gulfstream in the Mr. Prospector (G3). Was off the board when fourth in Gunite's Aristides win last out.

Next 5: Repo Rocks, Doppelganger, Skelly, Strobe, Three Technique.

Female sprinters

1. Goodnight Olive. Rebounded from her loss in the Derby City Distaff (G1) with a good win last out in the Bed o' Roses (G2), where she narrowly defeated the No. 3 ranked Wicked Halo. The Eclipse winner from last season started her season with a win in the Madison (G1) at Keeneland. Connections will now point her to the Ballerina at Saratoga on August 26. That will be her last start prior to the Breeders' Cup Filly & Mare Sprint.

2. Wicked Halo. Runner-up again in another huge effort last out in the Bed o' Roses, this time to Goodnight Olive. She is most certainly a serious contender for the Eclipse in this division and appears to be just getting better. Before the Bed o' Roses she was runner-up in the Derby City Distaff to Matareya.

3. Society. Has rebounded from a rough start to her season with a 10-length win last out over Matareya in the Chicago Stakes (G3). Previous to that she was ninth in the La Troienne (G1) and third in the Madison (G1). Perhaps she is a player in this division? Not sure. I will side with the Chicago Stakes being an aberration.

4. Matareya. Upset the top one in the Derby City Distaff earlier this year but disappointed when well beaten last week in the Chicago Stakes (G3) at Ellis Park.

5. Frank's Rockette. Won the Hurricane Bertie (G3) at Gulfstream in early March and the Roxelana Stakes at Churchill in late April.

Next 5: Fun to Dream, Echo Zulu, Caramel Swirl, Maryquitecontray, Maple Leaf Mel

Nest still has some questions to be answered now at age four

When we last saw Nest she finished off the board when finishing fourth behind the three top older females in the country. Nothing to be ashamed of, she had already won three Grade 1 events against fellow 3-year-old fillies and the Eclipse was in the bag prior to the Breeders’ Cup. 

But with all Nest accomplished last season, success this season at age four is not guaranteed. Given that Nest is likely to make only three or four starts this season, the Shuvee becomes a very important race in the Eclipse race for some voters who weigh the entire season of racing, not just the last month or two. 

The Shuvee presents an immediate test for the daughter of Curlin. She will face Clairiere (No. 1), a horse who defeated her handily in last fall’s Breeders’ Cup Distaff. While Nest ran well against her own division, she never put up the type of speed figures that made her a standout over older females. But that was last year when she was three. We could see an improvement now that Nest is a year older. 

So with the Shuvee kicking off what is expected to be an abbreviated three or four race campaign for Nest, how as an Eclipse Award voter do you analyze this? If Clairiere defeats Nest in the Shuvee for her third straight win of 2023, we can expect to read and hear the excuses that Nest needed a race, etc. But that’s not Clairiere’s fault. 

Clairiere has been present and accounted for this season, running three times already, winning two Grade 1 events. Contrary to what seems the popular belief, the first half of the season matters, as well as staying healthy to compete should matter. 

We will see how the season plays out I guess, but I certainly hope that we all remember what takes place the first half of the season, because it should matter.