Division rankings: Triple Crown conclusion has familiar tone

Last year it was Epicenter who entered and then exited the Triple Crown series as the No. 1 ranked 3-year-old male despite not winning either the Kentucky Derby, Preakness or Belmont.

This year it is Forte who has held firm at the top despite not coming away with a win in any of the Triple Crown events.

Last weekend’s Belmont results did little to push Forte out of the top spot. In fact, I think the results of all three races only bolstered Forte’s position at the top of the division.

Don’t agree? Before I explain my reasoning and sway your opinion, let's take a look at this week's updated division rankings.

Older dirt males

1. Cody's Wish. Has to be ranked here for now on the basis of his two Grade 1 wins this season. I write "has to" because he has yet to win a stakes beyond a mile. He was stellar in his Met Mile (G1) last time out, and the next logical spot will be to try to stretch out to nine panels in the Whitney (G1) in August at Saratoga. In the same boat that Mitole was in a few years back and Life Is Good last year as far as distance limitations, and it will be tough to secure an Eclipse other than the sprint award unless he can stretch out successfully. No horse has won the Eclipse in this division who hasn’t won at nine furlongs or more since the inception of the awards over 50 years ago.

2. Stilleto Boy. Connections will point to the July 1 Stephen Foster (G1) at Ellis Park for his next start. Previously he did all the running in the Oaklawn Handicap (G2) and fell just short at the wire to lose by two noses to Proxy, a horse he defeated in his previous two starts this season. Given that, he has to be ranked ahead of Proxy. Recency bias doesn't exist in these rankings, so the head-to-head record along with his Grade 1 win matters here.

3. Proxy. He closed well to score his first stakes win of the season and second of his career in the Oaklawn Handicap. But I need to see much more from this guy. The Oaklawn was his first win of the season after an off-the-board finish in the Pegasus World Cup (G1) and his runner-up finish to Stilleto Boy in the Santa Anita Handicap (G1).

4. Defunded. Hard-knocking gelding won the Hollywood Gold Cup (G1) on Memorial Day. Two graded-stakes wins this season from four starts, and he hasn't been off the board in any of them. In the best form of his career.

5. Smile Happy. Super impressive on Kentucky Oaks day, defeating several ranked below when winning the Alysheba (G2). Now 2-for-3 this season, he should be a player in this division in races up to nine furlongs. I just can't see him being a serious threat if he is forced to run 10 furlongs. Disappointed his connections chose to skip the Met Mile.

Next 5: Art Collector, West Will Power, Last Samurai, Rattle N Roll, Hopper.

Older dirt females

1. Clairiere. The clear leader of the division, she ran down Search Results in the Ogden Phipps (G1) on Belmont day, winning that event for the second year in a row. A valid case can be made that she has been the best older filly or mare the last two seasons, but she has been a bit unlucky. With two Grade 1 wins now this season, the Eclipse will go through this daughter of Curlin. Will start next at Saratoga, pointing to two races. First up is the Shuvee (G2) on July 29 and then the Personal Ensign (G1) on Aug. 25.

2. Search Results. Have to feel for her connections as she was a tough luck runner-up yet again, this time to Clairiere in the Ogden Phipps. In her previous start she was a close third, beaten two heads in the La Troienne (G1).

3. Played Hard. Ran well to be third in the Phipps to Clairiere. Won the La Troienne in her only other start this season. Off the board only two times in 16 career starts.

4. Secret Oath. She simply didn't fire in the Phipps, finishing fifth and beaten over 12 lengths. Now 1-for-4 on the season, the Phipps was the worst start of her career. She is the only horse to have beaten Clairiere this season.

5. A Mo Reay. Started the season off right by winning two stakes, including the Beholder Mile (G1) at Santa Anita. She then had a shot to move up here but she didn't get the job done in the La Troienne last time out and finished fourth, beaten two lengths. She didn't run badly, but she didn't run as well as expected. Look for trainer Brad Cox to wheel her back soon, perhaps in a race at Saratoga.

Next 5: Adare Manor, Pass the Champagne, Fun to Dream, Idiomatic, Frost Point.

3-year-old males

1. Forte. Was here at No. 1 prior to the Kentucky Derby and nothing that took place in the Triple Crown events was enough to displace him. Much like Epicenter a year ago, will stay here despite not winning a Triple Crown race. His Belmont effort was superb given the circumstances. He has swept both of his meetings with Kentucky Derby winner Mage, and the one time he faced Preakness runner-up Blazing Sevens this season he defeated him by more than 25 lengths. Will be favored over any other 3-year-old in whatever his next start will be, either the Jim Dandy (G2) at Saratoga or Haskell (G1) at Monmouth.

2. Mage. His Preakness third-place finish is a complicated one to analyze. He certainly was in good position throughout, but he didn't have enough at the end. The race he ran in the Derby, combined with the stitches and the fresh horses he faced, got him beaten by more than a slow pace in Baltimore. After all is said and done, this guy has a maiden win and a Kentucky Derby win, the same boat as Rich Strike from a year ago. I hope we see him in the major events this summer.

3. Two Phil's. Really impressed me in the Kentucky Derby as he was close to a fast early pace and held his ground in the stretch to finish a very good runner-up. Some could say he ran the best race of any. Could run in the June 24 Ohio Derby (G3) at Thistledown, which could be used as a prep for the July 22 Haskell Stakes (G1) at Monmouth Park and Aug. 26 Travers (G1) at Saratoga.

4. Angel of Empire. Disappointed in the Belmont, and I partly blame his trainer. For all the good press Brad Cox is the recipient of, why put blinkers on him? I agree with several who commented before and after the race on this move. Why ask him for speed? This was a text-book example of how to screw up (front-load) a group herd dynamic horse's energy distribution. The Arkansas Derby (G1) winner finished a close third in the Kentucky Derby, and I still feel that he one of the top five 3-year-old males.

5. Arcangelo. Very impressed with his Belmont win as he had a golden trip up the rail to post a facile win over a strong field. But this was the Belmont, a 12-furlong race that is known to produce out-of-the-box results. Likely will point to the Travers next but wouldn't be favored in a race over any of the above. The Belmont was his second stakes win in five starts. Will point to the Jim Dandy and Travers for his next starts.

Next 5: National Treasure, Arabian Lion, Tapit Trice, Practical Move, Disarm.

3-year-old females

1. Pretty Mischievous. Took a big lead in this division with her Acorn (G1) win last week. Before that she scored in the Kentucky Oaks (G1). She has won the two biggest events that her division has to offer so far this season. She is now 6-for-8 on her career, never finishing off the board. Is targeting the Coaching Club American Oaks (G1) on July 22, followed by the Alabama (G1) on Aug. 19, both at Saratoga.

2. Wet Paint. Finished fourth as the favorite in the Kentucky Oaks after demolishing the Fantasy (G3) field at Oaklawn. The Oaks was her first loss on dirt. Returns this weekend in the listed Monomoy Girl Stakes at Ellis Park going one mile on the dirt, where she will meet Hoosier Philly.

3. Gambling Girl. Nearly pulled off the Kentucky Oaks upset, losing by a neck. Winless in four starts this season but has placed in two graded stakes.

4. Faiza. Disappointed as the favorite last out in the Black-Eyed Susan (G2), where she finished third. The loss snapped a five-race win streak to start her career, and four of those were graded events.

5. Window Shopping. Won the Summertime Oaks (G2) last out defeating The Alys Look, and before that she was third in Faiza's Santa Anita Oaks (G1).

Next 5: Dorth Vader, Taxed, The Alys Look, Southlawn, Defining Purpose.

Turf males

1. Up to the Mark. Was superb last week winning the Manhattan (G1) at Belmont Park, giving him two Grade 1 wins on this season, a rarity for this division the last few years. Do we finally have a grass horse based in the U.S. who can make noise this fall in the Breeders' Cup when the big guns come in from overseas? Well, let's pump the brakes, the jury is out. He certainly has handled the fields he has faced in his last two starts, both of which were Grade 1 wins. But if we are being honest, the fields he has beaten were suspect, and two months ago he faced two horses ranked in this top five and was soundly defeated when third in the Makers Mark Mile (G1). So for now this guy will reside here, but there is a long way to go.

2. Modern Games. Ran in England a few weeks ago and won a thrilling Al Shaqab Lockinge Stakes (G1). Before that he disappointed as the runner-up in the Maker's Mark Mile (G1). This guy won the Eclipse last season and at least has made a start in this country already.

3. Exaulted. Since being moved to the grass from the dirt, this guy is 4-for-4. His win in the Shoemaker Mile (G1) was his second graded-stakes victory of the season, and he may very well be the best in this division right now. Bigger things could be in store for this son of Twirling Candy.

4. Casa Creed. Ran well in the Jaipur (G1) finishing a close third to Caravel. Now a 7-year-old, he is in the best form of his career. He ran lights out when narrowly missing in Saudi Arabia earlier this year in the Turf Sprint (G3) and finished second. The Saudi race was his first start this season. He too should run next at Saratoga.

5. Chez Pierre. No way around it, he disappointed in the Poker (G3) finishing third last out at Belmont Park. The Poker was only his second loss on the lawn. The Makers Mark Mile (G1) winner will make his next appearance at Saratoga.

Next 5: Emmanuel, Ottoman Fleet, Hong Kong Harry, Spooky Channel, Never Explain.

Turf females

1. In Italian. Has taken a firm hold of the division now with her win in the Just a Game (G1) last week coupled with the loss by War Like Goddess in her race. With two grade 1 wins on this season, she is in the best form of her career.

2. Caravel. This gal is a turf sprinter but she has to move to this spot now after her win over the boys in the Jaipur (G1) at Belmont Park. She is 3-for-3 this season. Both of her stakes wins this season have come over males.

3. War Like Goddess. The favorite in the New York Stakes (G1), this gal likes to come from far back and, given the ridiculously slow fractions, she was up against it and finished off the board for only the second time in 15 career starts. There was something different about this effort as she has overcome ultra-slow fractions before, and it didn't appear that the spark was there. She was beaten just a little over two lengths in finishing sixth.

4. Marketsegmentation. The winner of the New York Stakes, this gal has won three stakes races in a row and is 3-for-4 on the season. The New York was her first Grade 1 win.

5. Didia. Ran well in the New York Stakes (G1), narrowly defeated as the runner-up. The loss in the New York snapped a seven-race win streak. Previously she won the Modesty (G3) at Churchill Downs.

Next 5: With the Moonlight, Fluffy Socks, Spendarella, Higher Truth, Queen Goddess

Male sprinters

1. Elite Power. Two starts this year and in those two starts he has has really elevated his stature. He overpowered the Truth North (G2) field last week and now will head to Saratoga to target both big sprint races there, the Vanderbilt (G1) on July 29 and the Forego (G1) on Aug. 26. Building a resume of early-season wins, much like Jackie's Warrior last season. But as we have learned previously, it isn't enough for Eclipse voters who demand wins in the last month or two of the season. Is ranked above Cody's Wish because, well, this guy is the Eclipse winner and hasn't lost since.

2. Cody's Wish. Do we keep him ranked down here with the sprinters? Sure we do. He has one Grade 1 sprint race win this year, the Churchill Downs Stakes (G1) and last out he dominated the Met Mile (G1). Could try to stretch out, but just as likely will be back in going a mile or less. Because of his connections, we likely will never see the matchup we all want to see, this guy vs. Elite Power going seven furlongs.

3. Spirit of Makena. The best of the West Coast sprinters right now, he has won all three of his starts this season. Last out, he overpowered the Triple Bend (G2) field, and before that he won the San Carlos (G2).

4. Gunite. Disappointed somewhat in the Golden Shaheen when third as the favorite. Before that he was simply the best of the rest when runner-up to Elite Power in Saudi Arabia. He overpowered the Aristides Stakes last out, beating four others.

5. Sibelius. Surprise winner of the Dubai Golden Shaheen (G1), defeating Gunite, among others. Before that this guy won the listed Pelican Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs. Won his first graded stakes in late December at Gulfstream in the Mr. Prospector (G3). Was off the board when fourth in Gunite's Aristides win last out.

Next 5: Repo Rocks, Doppelganger, Straight No Chaser, Skelly, Strobe.

Female sprinters

1. Goodnight Olive.  Maintains the top spot here despite her loss in the Derby City Distaff (G1). The Eclipse winner from last season started her season off with a win in the Madison (G1) at Keeneland. Is pointed to the Bed o' Roses (G2) this weekend facing off against Wicked Halo.

2. Matareya. Upset the top one in the Derby City Distaff, and it appears that she and Wicked Halo will make Goodnight Olive work for a repeat Eclipse in this division.

3. Wicked Halo. Runner-up in the Derby City Distaff, this 4-year-old filly ran well in the Breeders' Cup last fall to finish third in the Filly & Mare Sprint. Before that effort she won two Grade 2 events, the Raven Run at Keeneland and the Prioress Stakes at Saratoga. She returned this season in the Matron Stakes at Oaklawn and defeated Matareya. Will be very formidable this weekend against Goodnight Olive in the Bed o' Roses (G2).

4. Frank's Rockette. Won the Hurricane Bertie (G3) at Gulfstream in early March and the Roxelana Stakes at Churchill in late April.

5. Fun to Dream. Winner of the Santa Monica (G2) earlier this season, her connections tried to stretch out last time in the Beholder Mile (G1), where she finished runner-up.

Next 5: Echo Zulu, Maryquitecontray, Elm Drive, Maple Leaf Mel, Caramel Swirl

Despite Triple Crown results, Forte is still the top dog

Last year in these rankings Epicenter held the top spot before the Kentucky Derby. He continued to hold on to that spot despite finishing second to Rich Strike in the Derby and then second again to Early Voting in the Preakness. Epicenter skipped Mo Donegal’s Belmont Stakes, but when the dust settled Epicenter was still my top ranked 3-year-old because, well, it was clear he was the best.

Of course, Epicenter affirmed these rankings and swept the Jim Dandy and Travers as he led the division every week for the remainder of the season en route to the Eclipse.

This season is unfolding in a very similar fashion.

Kentucky Derby winner Mage, whom Forte has beaten twice already this season, has one stakes win, the same as Rich Strike a year ago. The Preakness winner last year, Early Voting, had only a Grade 3 win. The Preakness winner this year, National Treasure, had zero wins outside of his maiden. The Belmont winner of last year, Mo Donegal, had the best resume of the three, but Epicenter already won their lone head-to-head in the Kentucky Derby. Mo Donegal never ran again.

Of the three winners this season, I think Belmont winner Arcangelo is the likeliest to win another race. You may wonder, why am I wondering about just a win? Well, because even a win is no sure thing, let alone another Grade 1 win.

Five of the last seven Kentucky Derby winners didn’t win another race. Four of the last six Preakness winners never won another race on the dirt again, and three of the last seven Belmont winners never won again. A fourth, Sir Winston, ran in five more graded stakes but came away with only one Grade 3 win.

Forte was runner-up to Arcangelo in last weekend’s Belmont in his first start since the Florida Derby on April 1. It was a remarkable effort given the layoff coupled with the 12-furlong distance of the Belmont. Take nothing away from Arcangelo, great story and all. But if these two meet again in their next race, who would be favored? Of course it would be Forte. In fact, Forte will be favored over any 3-year-old male in his next race.

So forget the hyperbole and recency bias, Forte is the top 3-year-old male. If Eclipse voting was held today he would win. My  mid-season Eclipse Awards are next week, and Forte wins his division.

For Kentucky Derby winner Mage (No. 2), he has work to do. He needs to run against and defeat Forte, a tall order given the results so far. For National Treasure (No. 6), he is more likely to never win another Grade 1 event than to win one. As I wrote above, it appears to me that Arcangelo (No. 5) has the most upside and the brightest future. But often the Belmont produces bizarre results, given the distance and whatnot. I am eager to see this guy run against Forte again at the nine- and 10-furlong distances.

One strike against Forte and his Eclipse chances is that he must win either the Travers or Breeders’ Cup Classic, in my opinion, to take home the Eclipse. In the Eclipse Award era, which dates to 1971, every 3-year-old male Eclipse winner has crossed the wire as one of the top three in a Triple Crown race, won the Travers or won the Breeders’ Cup Classic. There is no in-between. All 52 Eclipse winners from this division have met that criteria.

So here we are for the second straight year: Can Forte pull an Epicenter and keep the top spot for the remainder of the season? All signs point to that answer being yes.