Breeders' Cup Mile - Preview and Final Thoughts

It’s hard to believe, but this Saturday marks the 33rd running of the Breeders’ Cup. This year is no different than any other, there are a multitude of story lines, and one of the major stories will be Tepin. The penultimate race on Breeders’ Cup Saturday is the Breeders' Cup Mile, with the field set to leave the gate at 4:40pm PST.

The field is set, and Tepin has scared no one off. Thirteen horses will enter the gate with her, females and males ranging in ages three to five. Here is the field in post-position order

#1 – WHAT A VIEW 20-1

This five-year-old gelding sports an unbeaten record on this turf course (5-5), and an 11-6-2-0 lifetime turf record. He won his first three starts this year which included the Gr1 Frank E. Kilroe Mile over this turf course. After a layoff of almost six months, trainer Kenneth Black shipped What a View east to run in the Gr1 Shadwell Turf Mile. He drew a wide post and weakened late to get beat by 3 ¼ lengths. Considering he was coming off such a long layoff, I think he can improve a lot. He loves the track and his best makes him a player. 

#2 – ALICE SPRINGS (IRE) 4-1

You remember this one, she ran a troubled second in last year’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf to Catch a Glimpse. This three-year-old filly will try to join Miesque, Goldikova, Six Perfections, and Ridgewood Pearl as the only three-year-old fillies to win this race. She hasn’t faced off against males yet but she is a proven commodity having run in seven Group 1 events this year overseas, winning her last two, and three overall. We know she can ship, and we know her trainer Aiden O’Brien will have her ready for this. She also has the services of her regular jockey Ryan Moore. Some would say he is the best in the world, and I won’t argue that. 

#3 – SPECTRE (FR) 20-1

Another three-year-old filly, this one from France. She has made five starts this year, winning a listed stakes in her first start in April. Running in Gr1 events over this mile distance in her last four starts, the best she could do was her last start, a second place finish in the Gr1 Prix du Moulin. She has never won over this mile distance, but it looks like she is improving. She could be one to use in the exotics. Javier Castellano will up to ride this filly for the first time.

#4 – MISS TEMPLE CITY 12-1

This four-year-old filly loves to run against males in the United States. Her only two wins this year came against males, but they were big wins, coming in the Gr1 Makers Mark Mile and the Gr1 Shadwell Turf Mile, both at Keeneland. They served as bookends to her season thus far – she had three starts in between, but was off the board in all three. She has never won two races in a row and sports a 14-5-3-2 lifetime grass record. She also has never run against Tepin, this will be her sternest test to date.

#5  TOURIST 15-1

This guy has been everywhere this year – Keeneland, Saratoga, Churchill Downs, and Santa Anita. Tourist has run in Gr1 stakes at each of these venues and he has placed in four of his five starts this year. His best two races this year were his close second to Midnight Storm in the Gr1 Shoemaker Mile in June, and his win in the Gr1 Fourstardave in late August. This five-year-old has run in this race the last two years with his best finish coming last year, finishing eighth, beaten 7 ¼ lengths. He sports a 10-4-1-3 lifetime record over this distance and his recent form is solid, but he would have to take it up another notch to win this. Bill Mott trains and Joel Rosario rides.

#6 PHOTO CALL (IRE) 15-1

Stunned Tepin in the Gr1 First Lady last out at Keeneland as she opened up a huge lead around the far turn and held on to win in wire to wire fashion. Overall this year she has a 7-2-1-1 record with her other win coming in April at Gulfstream in the Gr3 Orchid. She is trained by Todd Pletcher this year after taking over for Graham Motion who trainer her in 2015. Photo Call will be ridden for the second straight time by Kent Desormeaux, who will likely try the same front running tactics he used in the last start. In a field like this though, with other quality speed, that will be a tall order.

#7 DUTCH CONNECTION (GB) 20-1

Another one who ships in from overseas after six race campaign that saw him win one Gr2 event. This four-year-old colt has a lifetime record of 16-4-5-2 on the turf but his recent form I question. Last out he was well back of another in this race, Spectre. He did ship to this country last year when running fifth, beaten 3 ¼ lengths in the Shadwell Turf Mile.

#8 TEPIN 3-1

The defending champion has taken it to a new level this year with a historic win at Royal Ascot. A repeat win here will assure herself a spot in the photo of all-time great female Breeders’ Cup Mile winners, alongside Miesque and Goldikova. Even with her loss last out, this year has been nothing short of spectacular for Tepin. Her win streak reached eight straight starts and included the win at Royal Ascot in the Gr1 Queen Anne, and two other Gr1 wins here in North America. Overall she has won six of seven this year. This race will be no easy task for several reasons, but one reason may be because she may not be as good as she was this time last year. Her last two starts since her return from England have not been her best. Some will say she hasn’t been fully cranked, I don’t buy that. This is her third start off of the layoff since her trip to Royal Ascot. Trainer Mark Casse feels she is ready to go and will be at her best. This would be quite a win for Tepin, much more difficult for her this year than last year in my opinion. The ship into Santa Anita combined with the questionable form since Royal Ascot makes me think that at 3-1 (she will go off much less), she may be a bit of an underlay.

#9 IRONICUS 8-1

Has only run the mile distance four times, but he is a nose, a head, and a neck from being unbeaten at a mile. Never off the board in thirteen career turf starts, Ironicus prepped for this race in the Shadwell Turf Mile, his first start in almost four months. He closed stoutly into a very soft pace and was beaten by only a head. With only three starts this year he is fresh, and his closing style will serve him well in this race. Closers have done well in this race at Santa Anita – In the nine runnings of the BC Mile at Santa Anita, only two pace setters have placed. I believe trainer Shug McGaughey has Ironicus primed for his best here, and Jose Ortiz will be back to pilot for the fourth straight race. 

#10 LIMATO (IRE) 7-2

Winner of Group I races in England and France, Limato has done his best running at shorter distances. He has tried a mile once, earlier this year, and was beaten 2 1/2 lengths while finishing fourth. The horse that won the race though, Belardo, pushed Tepin only to narrowly lose by a half-length in his next start at Royal Ascot. So we know this guy has the class. The question here is the mile distance against the best in the world who specialize at it. He is 11-6-4-0 in his career on the turf. 

#11 RING WEEKEND 20-1

This five-year-old gelding has only run five times since 2014. He comes into this race off of seventh place finish in the Shadwell Turf Mile, he was only beaten by 2 ¼ lengths. He flattened out in the stretch and finished behind a few who are entered here. He has raced against Tourist several times and has never beaten him. So if you like this guy, you have to like Tourist. One thing in his favor though is that he owns a win over the track at this same distance. The win was a big one, it came in the Gr1 Kilroe Mile in March of 2015, but against these, is he wading into the deep side of the pool.

#12 HIT IT A BOMB 20-1

His career started out great as he won last year’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf to cap an unbeaten season (3 for 3). This year though, hasn’t gone according to plan for this Aidan O’Brien trained son of War Front. He made his first start of the season just a little over two months ago, and finished third, beaten two lengths by Cougar Mountain, another entry in this race. His next start a month later, he again finished third. Then, his last start in the Gr1 Queen Elizabeth, he was beaten 10 lengths while finishing ninth. He would have to really take it up a several notches to contend in this race.

#13 MIDNIGHT STORM 12-1

The “Home” horse if you will, Midnight Storm has really come into his own since June. He has reeled off three straight impressive scores in Southern California. What was impressive about these wins was how he won. When winning the Gr1 Shoemaker Mile over this course and at this distance, he gamely held off Tourist when it appeared Tourist would go by him. Then in the Gr2 Eddie Read at 9 furlongs, Midnight Storm again repelled all comers in the stretch. At one point, it appeared he would be passed by two horses, but he simply wouldn’t allow it, and even started to pull away nearing the wire. In his final start before this race he was confidently ridden to victory over Turf Sprint contender Om. The horses Midnight Storm has beaten have all come back to run well, so it’s not like he didn’t beat anyone. In order to win a Breeders’ Cup Mile in wire to wire fashion you have to be a very special horse. I know he has the heart to hang in there, and will probably be on the lead turning for home, but I am not sure he can hold off all comers.

#14 COUGAR MOUNTAIN (IRE) 20-1

He has run eight times this year but only has one win in a Gr2 at Newmarket. A career 19-3-2-1 record on the turf doesn’t inspire much confidence in his chances here. He finished ahead of Hit it a Bomb earlier this year, and he ran against Tepin in the Queen Anne but was eighth, beaten almost eight lengths. It appears he is an established Gr2 caliber horse and is in too deep here.

My pick in this race is Ironicus, and What a View is longshot I feel could make noise. If Tepin wins this race she deserves all the accolades that are bestowed on her. 

IRONICUS

TEPIN/MIDNIGHT STORM/WHAT A VIEW/ALICE SPRINGS