Breeders’ Cup Classic: The paradox that is Arrogate
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Seldom has a horse generated as much
debate among fans and writers as Arrogate. From the moment he crossed the wire
in the Travers, 13 1/2 lengths clear of his closest pursuer in a track record
time, the Arrogate era began.
A little more than a year into this highly scrutinized journey, here we are. The
once invincible colt is now a little over a fortnight away from his final
scheduled career start in next month’s Breeders’ Cup Classic.
There has been much debate about where Arrogate stands in the recent history of the sport. After the Dubai World Cup, some prematurely proclaimed Arrogate as one of the greatest horses of the modern era — a stunning narrative after so few races, in my opinion.
Others tempered their thoughts, wanting to see more than four graded stakes wins in eight months before making such statements. Even trainer Bob Baffert said after the Dubai win that Arrogate is the best he’s ever trained, a surprising statement that seemed blasphemous to many considering he had just won a Triple Crown and a Breeders’ Cup Classic with a certain horse who actually proved his greatness over two racing seasons and several races.
Look, I get it. People get caught up in the excitement of a win. But I think many got ahead of themselves. It was a debate that could only be answered with more racing. Arrogate had flashed brilliance, but there needed to be more of an affirmation before putting any horse on that sort of pedestal.
After a freshening, Arrogate made his highly anticipated return in July, at Del Mar in the San Diego Handicap. In the week leading up to the race, Baffert beamed after the colt’s final work when he said Arrogate was “doing really well” and that he “felt good about him running.” Arrogate never picked it up in the San Diego on his way to finishing fourth, beaten more than 15 lengths.
It was not the race many had envisioned, and Arrogate showed that he is a horse who had a bad day, not unlike many before him. In preparation for his next start, the Pacific Classic
After these last two starts, the questions are no longer about Arrogate’s place in the recent history of the sport. Those queries can be put to bed for a while. They now revolve around his chances of winning the Breeders’ Cup Classic, and with it, an Eclipse for Horse of the Year.
The recent announcement of Arrogate’s retirement after the upcoming Breeders’ Cup raised a few eyebrows, mainly because there is a certain $16 million race being held a little more than three months after the Breeders’ Cup. Much has been written about his last few works. On Monday, he “went perfect,” Baffert said, and a decision on the Breeders’ Cup for his horses will come this weekend.
I rarely pay attention to what connections say publicly about their own horse’s works. Some haven’t liked his recent works. I am on the fence here with this. The question, though, has to be asked. Will he be entered? I am going out on a limb here, but I don’t think this is a slam dunk.
I have no doubt that if Arrogate does indeed go to post in the Classic, he is one of only a few that have a legitimate shot to win. This year’s Classic is the first time in years that Horse of the Year is really down to two horses that are both slated to run: Gun Runner
My hope is we see the Arrogate who showed up in his last start, to take on the Gun Runner who has shown up for his last few starts. That’s all we can ask for at this point, and may the best horse win.
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