2015 Breeders' Cup Classic: Hurdles to Overcome
We are now six weeks away from the most anticipated Classic in Breeders’ Cup history. For the first time in the Breeders' Cup era a U.S. Triple Crown has been won, and the Triple Crown winner American Pharoah is expected to be there and attempt to win and complete racing’s “Grand Slam”, a feat I never thought we would see, ever. Much of the talk in recent days and weeks has not been so much about American Pharoah, but about who will line up against him in the starting gate, and how those opponents will prep for their attempt to thwart Pharoah’s attempt at history.
As I look at the perspective contenders and their chances I can’t help but think that two of the most talked about contenders have major questions that have to be asked. Caution: I have some bold opinions that may not go over very well, but opinions are what makes this sport great.
First, let’s start with Honor Code. The one mile G2 Kelso Handicap will be his prep? Really? This means that going in to the Classic, Honor Code will have had a grand total of ZERO races at ten furlongs and a mere two races at nine furlongs which he won by a nose and neck. Yes, he has A.P Indy as his sire, and many think he will have no issue with the extra distance, but as little as five weeks ago many thought this horse was a miler and now he is the main threat to American Pharoah? To put his lack of experience running over a route of ground in to perspective, I did some research, and found the odds are hugely stacked against this horse not only winning the Classic, but even hitting the board.
In the previous 29 runnings of the Breeders’ Cup Classic held on a dirt track there has been ONE winner who never started at ten furlongs or more, Ghostzapper. Honor Code is no Ghostzapper, and that field had nowhere near the talent that is expected for this one. Ghostzapper was also dominant at nine furlongs in his prior races to the Classic, and not dependent on the pace.
Looking further in to the numbers, of the 87 horses who placed, only THREE never started at ten furlongs or more. Yes, you read that right, THREE. Two were from that 2004 edition, Ghostzapper and Roses in May, the other was Premium Tap (3rd 2006). Now one of the supposed main contenders who doesn’t exude confidence at nine furlongs, let alone ten furlongs, is going to prep in a one mile dirt race on the same card that has the Jockey Club Gold Cup at ten furlongs? The same JCGC that is commonly used as a springboard for the Breeders’ Cup Classic win or lose? I know there are many out there who have strong opinions regarding this horse and will strongly disagree with my stance here, however, I stand by my take that this is the wrong prep and I feel that that the numbers speak for themselves when analyzing his chances or lack of chances in a possible Classic start.
The other contender that has been talked about has been Beholder. Okay, even I will admit I was stunned at her Pacific Classic. It was among the best performances by a female over males around two turns that we have ever seen. She has taken her game to a new level, and is the best female dirt horse in the world. We know she can get the distance, something I questioned going in to the Pacific Classic, and we know she isn’t intimidated by the boys. The problem I have with Beholder is that the two times she has shipped, she has lost. Even her connections have stated she doesn’t ship well. Her trainer Richard Mandella on Beholder and shipping stated “She's just a little tough to handle sometimes and gets herself in trouble”. Now she is going to ship for the first time in 15 months to Lexington and beat a star studded field and nowhere near what she faced in the Pacific Classic? I wish her luck in this endeavor but I think this is quite an undertaking.
As I have stated before, I believe this crop of three-year-olds will prove to be the best we have seen since 1987. I expect them to dominate this year’s Classic and in my opinion, Frosted is the main challenger to American Pharoah on October 31st. We still have six weeks to talk about the relative merits of not just these contenders, but all of the others that will target this great race, and I for one look forward to the discussions. Six weeks and counting.