Belmont Stakes 2017 - Class and Who Will Get the Trip

Who will get distance? That’s the question every year revolving around the Belmont Stakes. The answer is that they all get the distance, the question really is, who can get the trip? There is a huge difference between the first two legs of the Triple Crown and the Belmont. Many horses who have found success in the Kentucky Derby or Preakness Stakes found the added distance of the Belmont too much to conquer. Many choose to make their picks based in large part on pedigree, but in my opinion, it is class that is a more essential quality most of the time.

Of course, there have been some recent longshot winners, real head scratchers, but looking back, were they just good that day and the best stayers? In some instances, sure. Did they have the best trip? Yes, in all instances. Besides the obvious need for stamina, very few Belmont winners come from very far off the pace, so the winner will likely need to possess a degree of speed, especially this year.

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With all the defections that have touched this Saturday's Belmont Stakes, would you believe me if I told you that this is the deepest and strongest Belmont Stakes field that didn’t have a Kentucky Derby or Preakness Stakes winner entered that has ever been put together?

Since the grading system was first published in 1974, this will be the fifth Belmont Stakes run without the Kentucky Derby or Preakness winner. The previous four times this has happened was in 2012, 2010, 2006, and 2000. In 2012, the eleven horse field combined for just one graded stakes win (Union Rags) on the dirt at age three going into the Belmont. 2010 was better, three total graded stakes wins at age three for the twelve horses entered. In Jazil’s 2006 Belmont, the twelve horses combined for three graded stakes wins at age three, and in Commendable's  2000 Belmont, the eleven entered had the same combined three graded stakes wins as 2006 and 2010.

This year’s field has eight graded stakes wins between them all. In fact, six of Saturday's starters all possess a graded win at age three. I would go so far as to say that Saturday’s race is rare for a Belmont in that it’s a fascinating edition to bet on, that isn't the case every year with this race. This year, virtually every horse in the Belmont field has a chance to win if the right circumstances come to pass.

Five horses who ran in the Kentucky Derby and skipped the Preakness Stakes are back. Irish War Cry and Gormley won the major Kentucky Derby preps in New York and California but floundered in Louisville. Both of these guys also can’t seem to put together two good races in a row at age three, but this race is their “up” race, and both are major contenders on class alone. Tapwrit looked like a major player in Florida, but in his three races outside of the Sunshine State he has been beaten by double digit lengths in each one.

Patch has received a lot of attention based off of his Louisiana Derby runner-up finish, and the fact he is missing a left eye. The Belmont will only be his fifth start and his sire, Union Rags, won that 2012 Belmont, as I mentioned earlier. The last of the Derby holdovers, J Boys Echo, actually beat the Preakness winner, Cloud Computing, in the Grade 3 Gotham, but was off the board in the Blue Grass Stakes, and then beaten over 20 lengths in the Kentucky Derby. 

Lookin at Lee is the only three-year-old who will compete in all three Triple Crown races this season and he has been remarkably consistent with his late run, but so far this season he hasn’t flashed the speed he may need to be successful in this race. I am also not sure he is fast enough to end up in the winner’s circle on Saturday.

Senior Investment was a horse I really liked in the Preakness, but like some stocks, I am getting out now. I think the Preakness was his best, and I feel like the Belmont will really be a tall order here for him. Epicharis was the horse I liked for this race, a lot. Thursday came word of issues with his right front leg being treated for lameness, and his refusal to train in the morning. I don’t hold his chances in the same regard I did 72 hours ago. If he doesn’t scratch, I would be surprised. This story is still unfolding.

Of the rest, I don’t believe Multiplier or Meantime will find this trip to their liking as much as some of the others. Hollywood Handsome just doesn’t appear to be as classy as most of these, but if you want a longshot, look no further than Twisted Tom, a horse I believe will relish the 12 furlongs and who has the speed to make his own trip. Chad Brown trains Twisted Tom, and he could very well win his second Triple Crown race in a row with a longshot.

If Irish War Cry can get away with being on or near a 1:13 or so split, I feel like he is your winner. He is the classiest horse in the race, and the fastest. He possesses early speed which is a huge attribute in this race against this field. He has had five weeks to rest after a clunker, and the last time that happened he ran a career best in the Wood Memorial. Gormley does have the speed to stay close and the class, but I question if he is fast enough. I believe Twisted Tom has a real upset chance here if Irish War Cry or Gormley can’t get the job done.

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I would be remiss if I didn’t mention Songbird and her four-year-old debut in the Grade 1 $750,000 Ogden Phipps. The two time champion ran her career best race last out in her “loss” to Beholder. I say that sarcastically, because it can hardly be called a loss. The 2016 Breeders’ Cup Distaff had two winners in my book. It didn’t matter to me in the aftermath of that race which champion was going to get the short end of that photo, they were both winners in that race to me. In that single race, both Beholder and Songbird epitomized everything that is great about thoroughbred racing. For Beholder, it put an exclamation point on an extraordinary career, reaffirming, and actually enhancing her greatness in my opinion. For Songbird, she silenced whatever critics she had left, and there were critics before that race. In the process of that “loss” her reputation was enhanced greatly, much like Zenyatta in her lone loss.

While I believe Songbird will come back just fine at age four, don’t forget that the toll of the previous season and maybe that last race could affect her. Rachel Alexandra was never the same after her historic three-year-old campaign which concluded with that gutsy Woodward triumph, and was stunned at 1-9 in her four-year-old debut.