Someone is going to win the Kentucky Derby
In 1995, a horse that won graded stakes in Florida while prepping for the Triple Crown ran out of the trifecta in the Blue Grass Stakes after running wide for most of the race. That horse was assistant-trained by Todd Pletcher. His name was Thunder Gulch, and he would go on to win the Kentucky Derby at odds of 24-1.
In 2017, a horse than won a graded stake in Florida while prepping for the Triple Crown ran out of the trifecta in the Blue Grass Stakes after running wide for most of the race. That horse is trained by Todd Pletcher. His name is Tapwrit, and he will go on to run in the Kentucky Derby….although probably NOT at odds of 24-1.
I don’t think Tapwrit was primed, ready, and cranked up to win the Blue Grass. Yes, he had trouble. But for the most part, he just looked flat in a race that he simply did not need to win. I strongly suspect we will see a much more competitive Tapwrit at Churchill Downs in four weeks. If you liked him before the Blue Grass, you should not abandon ship now. As for the other Blue Grass contenders, I don’t see any of them making it into the key slots on my Derby wagers.
Speaking of 1995, I think Irap is likely to be more Wild Syn than Lion Heart, which is to say I don’t see him in the Kentucky Derby trifecta. Practical Joke ran just fine and I appreciate the fact that he’s a dual-Grade I winner, but he seems to never be quite good enough when going around two turns. I won’t talk anyone out of betting J Boys Echo in the Derby, but it’s been a long time since wintering in New York was a recipe for Derby success, so I won’t be using him. Which brings me to McCraken …
Tell me the last time a horse missed training and went on to win the Derby. He had a bump-of-unknown-severity in the road, and had he come back and romped or even run especially well at Keeneland, perhaps I’d be willing to overlook his troubles and use him on my tickets. But he was flat when he needed to be anything but, and I prefer Tapwrit from the Blue Grass runners as a result.
It looked to me like Iliad was poised to pounce turning for home in the Santa Anita Derby. It didn’t happen. He does not want to go that far, and I suspect we will not see him in the Kentucky Derby. As someone who wagered very heavily on him in Pool 3 of the Future Wager, I am immensely disappointed in his performance. We all knew distance was a potential issue for him, and those of us who supported him hoped he’d answer the question affirmatively and that his talent would win the day. Oh well.
As for the remainder of the Santa Anita Derby field, from my perspective it’s hard to find much to be enthusiastic about. Any time you see so many horses so close together at the wire, it’s fair to question the quality of the race. I don’t see any of this bunch thriving at the Derby distance. That’s not to say one of them can’t win, but I’d like to meet the man who wagers heavily on anybody from this race with confidence.
As for the Wood Memorial, I need more time to think about it. The only opinion I have at this point is that Cloud Computing needed to show me more given all the history he’s up against. He seemed to be life and death to hold 3rd and I can’t help but think his connections were hoping for more.
Now, on to the Arkansas Derby. There is an expected contender in there that I am really starting to warm up to as my Derby longshot. We’ll talk about him later this week.