Kentucky Derby 2017: Escape the Favorite Trappe

In the last four runnings of the Kentucky Derby, favorites have dominated. Last year, they ran 1-2-3-4…..in order. Maybe it’s the points system. Maybe it’s something else. Who cares? The bottom line is that if you wanted to make real cash on Derby Day dating back to 2013 (and I’m talking “go buy a new car” cash) then you needed to either bet a lot of money on the favorites, or you need to use one or both of two longshots that have spiced up the superfecta payouts: Golden Soul in 2013 and Commanding Curve in 2014.

On a personal note, I had Golden Soul in the tri, but not the super. And I totally dismissed Commanding Curve for the simple and stupid reason that I didn’t think Dallas Stewart could hit the exacta with a bomb two years in a row. Well, he did. And I felt like a moron.

So what about this year? Might there be another Golden Soul or Commanding Curve lurking in the shadows? To that, I say yes, there very well might be. And he’s running Saturday in the Arkansas Derby.

In no way, shape, or form am I suggesting that Untrapped is on the same level as Irish War Cry, Always Dreaming, or any of the other top Derby contenders. On paper, he’s a notch below the best, for sure. But on video, he reminds me a heck of a lot of some recent Derby bombers who snuck into the exotics at a price. Go watch the replays and see for yourself. To me, he looks like a not-terribly-fast horse who will be one of the few who is still running at the end of the Derby distance. He looks a lot like Golden Soul to me.

There is no shortage of question marks when it comes to his ability. And being a son of Trappe Shot, one has to wonder if he’s already surpassed his preferred distance. I understand all of that. And I’m not suggesting I’m prepared to rush to the windows and throw down a pile of cash on him to win the Arkansas Derby much less the Kentucky Derby. But let’s keep a close eye on him this weekend. Maybe he’ll run an even, solid race en route to an honest 4th place finish and head to Louisville way, way, way below the radar at 40-1 or higher. In a race where 15 of the 20 runners are going to waive the white flag after a mile, having a longshot on your tickets who isn’t flashy but it always there may not be such a terrible thing. Let’s just hope he doesn’t win on Saturday.

Or perhaps you’d rather box Irish War Cry, Always Dreaming, and McCraken so you can brag about hitting the Derby exacta. Knock yourself out.