Can Iliad Handle the Kentucky Derby Odyssey?
As someone who bet heavily on Iliad at 24-1 in Pool 3 of the Kentucky Derby Future Wager, it did not thrill me to see him end up at 29-1 in Pool 4. I wasn’t overly enthused by his San Felipe effort, but he’s likely going to be favored in Saturday’s Santa Anita Derby, and he really SHOULD end up with enough points to make the Kentucky Derby field. So while I understand him not being 15-1 like the Pool 4 morning line suggested, the jump from 24-1 to 29-1 after a 2nd place effort in the San Felipe tells me that the majority of observers don’t think he’s a serious Kentucky Derby contender. Are they right?
Well, even though he lost to Mastery by six lengths, he was two paths wider the whole way around. So maybe he ran well enough to be closer. Maybe. Let’s reserve judgment on Iliad until after this weekend. I still think there is immense talent there, and if the screws are tightened for this, perhaps he’ll open up at the top of the lane and draw off like he did in the San Vicente. Then maybe 24-1 will look like an absolute steal. And for a final thought on Pool 4, my Pool 3 Tapwrit wager at 22-1 looks great with him down to 10-1 now.
Last week’s top contender on the Dew Blog Derby Value Top 5, Local Hero, did exactly what I feared he would do in the Louisiana Derby. He wants no part of ten furlongs. They should probably skip the Kentucky Derby with him.
It seems that the Fair Grounds path to the Kentucky Derby hasn’t been the place to be for top Derby contenders in recent years, although both Golden Soul and Commanding Curve spent time in Louisiana on their ways to runner-up efforts in Louisville. Gun Runner managed to run 3rd last year. But by and large, my feeling is this group of Louisiana sophomores doesn’t contain the Kentucky Derby winner. I like Girvin. And I like Local Hero. Just not for the Derby trifecta.
I need someone to tell me definitively how fast, relatively, the pace of the Florida Derby was. Because if it was slow or average, then I really like the way Gunnevera rallied to be a non-threatening third. If the pace was on the faster side, then you would have to downgrade his effort. I wasn’t high on Gunnevera going into the race, but he’s just such a hard-trying gutsy type that I may end up using him on Derby Day. Always Dreaming is clearly pretty good but forget getting any value on him now. I always use at least one of the favorites somewhere in my Derby wagers, and I suppose he could be that favorite this year.
And now for this week’s Dew Blog Derby Value Top 5 …
1) Iliad - He’ll either be in this same spot or completely off this list come Saturday afternoon. And he doesn’t need to win. I’ll settle for a sign that he isn’t about to collapse after nine furlongs.
2) Tapwrit - Now that he’s 10-1 it’s hard to say he still offers value. But I’m keeping him here because I got him at 22-1 and I think he is poised to be a major player in Louisville.
3) Battalion Runner- I hear what people are saying about Todd Pletcher’s record in the Kentucky Derby, and I don’t think it’s totally unwarranted to slightly downgrade the chances of his Derby entrants. But he’s definitely firing on all cylinders this year and I am obviously not afraid to put two of his runners in the top three.
4) Gunnevera - We are probably going to get 15-1 on him in the Kentucky Derby. Maybe even higher. I don’t love deep closers in the Derby but something about this guy tell me he is going to be there at the end.
5) I can’t decide among McCraken, Cloud Computing, and Untrapped. I am not sure if a son of Trappe Shot will want a mile and a quarter, but his past performances remind me a lot of the aforementioned Golden Soul and Commanding Curve, both of whom hit the Derby exacta. I see some resemblance to Keen Ice as well. If the Kentucky Derby falls apart late, don’t dismiss a horse like Untrapped.