2017 Kentucky Derby: They Call Him Crackers

The racing world knows him as McCraken. His name was supposed to be spelled McCracken. His most loyal fans call him Crackers. I call him an easy toss in the 2017 Kentucky Derby.

It’s not that he isn’t good, or that he isn’t fast enough, or even that I don’t love his running style. Crackers is a very useful son of Ghostzapper and his talent is obvious. He’s also an impressive 3 for 3 over the Churchill dirt. But what I don’t like is how “ho hum” he ran in the Blue Grass when he was desperately in need of points. Think about it. If J Boys Echo or Tapwrit had run anything resembling their top effort, Crackers might have finished 5th and we wouldn’t even be talking about his Derby chances. He’d be pointing for the Preakness. So isn’t it fair to say he was primed or nearly primed for a top effort at Keeneland? And if that was his best, are you going to bet with confidence in less than two weeks?

Crackers also missed some training with a minor issue. But as we discussed when talking about Classic Empire, the Derby is so demanding that it seems any horse who didn’t have a perfect winter and spring is at a massive disadvantage at Churchill.

Look, don’t get me wrong. There are plenty of things to like about Crackers. Brian Hernandez chose him over Girvin. You’ll get decent value considering he was the favorite just a few weeks ago. But he’s not for me.

And speaking of Girvin, what should we make about today’s planned work being rescheduled for Friday? You can’t call that a great sign. Doesn’t it feel like we go down this road every year anyway? Some horse wins multiple preps at Fair Grounds but runs slowly in doing so and doesn’t factor in the Kentucky Derby finish. I didn’t like Girvin before today and I definitely don’t like him now.

I bet Irap to win and place last winter when he ran 2nd to Mastery. Made a few bucks. I also played him in the Sunland Derby, but talked myself out of playing him in the Blue Grass when, for some reason, I opted to play all the Calumet horses in the three Derby preps that day. Bad decision. My inclination at this point is to use him in the 4th and possibly the 3rd spot on my Derby tickets. He won’t be a key part of my bets, but he won’t be a toss I don’t think.

Thunder Snow is a total toss for me. Forget the fact that he wintered in Dubai. Just watch his action in deep stretch in his last two races. He just has a sloppy way of moving and I don’t think he’s likely to start putting it all together at 10 furlongs.

State of Honor and Practical Joke appear to want less than 10 furlongs, in my opinion.

As of today….

Most likely winner: Always Dreaming, followed by Irish War Cry and Classic Empire

Best Value: Patch

Other possible key horses: Tapwrit, Gunnevera, and Battalion Runner. Still considering what to do with: Irap, Looking at Lee, and Sonneteer.