Kentucky Derby 2020 Radar: Next round of prep probables line up

Count the Risen Star (G2) winner Modernist and Fountain of Youth (G2) hero Ete Indien in the 2020 Kentucky Derby thus far. Who will join them Saturday?

A trio of major preps run coast to coast, each on the 50-20-10-5 points scale where the winner is on to Churchill Downs and perhaps a runner-up, too, should they enter these penultimate qualifiers with enough points already earned.

Here’s a look at probables per the racing offices at Aqueduct, Tampa Bay Downs and Santa Anita Park ahead of Wednesday’s entry deadline.

Gotham Stakes (G3)

The final one-turn race on the road to the Derby attracted a cast of contenders fit for the one-mile setup.

Swale Stakes (G3) winner Mischevious Alex could be the favorite as he stretches a bit from a seven-furlong victory with Montauk Traffic also a 7/8-mile stakes winner last time in Aqueduct’s Jimmy Winkfield.

Big City Bob and Flap Jack are both interesting going back to their 2-year-old seasons. The former beat Mischevious Alex in Monmouth Park’s Sapling Stakes, then ran third behind Tiz the Law in the Champagne Stakes (G1). The latter hasn’t run since annexing the Arlington-Washington Futurity.

Untitled ran much of the way with well-regarded Gouverneur Morris in a two-turn Tampa Bay Downs allowance and may thrive more at this distance, while other top contenders all appear to be exiting maiden victories — among them locals War Stopper and Sixto.

Attachment Rate could be a particularly live longshot shipping in from Gulfstream Park. He closed to be second, just 3/4 lengths behind Todd Pletcher-trained Market Analysis at long odds, then wheeled back three weeks later to break his maiden by 6 1/4 lengths around a one-turn mile.

Tampa Bay Derby (G2)

The Sam F. Davis Stakes (G3) winner Sole Volante, who proved he could run on either surface while upsetting previously unbeaten Independence Hall over this same 1 1/16-mile trip last month, is back. But he picked up a major rival over the weekend.

Chance It, scratched from the outside post in the Fountain of Youth, will ship in for trainer Saffie Joseph Jr., who’s no stranger to running and winning at Tampa Bay Downs.

Beyond the two stakes winners, this is a field begging for someone to step up. While the racing office didn’t list any Pletcher runners as probable, the future Hall of Famer nominated multiple horses. He has oodles of maiden winners, and the likes of Market Analysis, Palm Springs and Texas Swing need to advance up the ladder somewhere.

More certain for the Tampa Bay Derby is Spa City. The Godolphin homebred punched his ticket with a Feb. 8 maiden victory going nine furlongs at Gulfstream Park. It isn’t so much that he needed to go that far; connections were just seeking a two-turn opportunity after Spa City was defeated locally by Caracaro, who figures to compete in stakes himself down the line.

Oh, and note the ownership of Mo Mosa, a son of Uncle Mo who broke his maiden Feb. 13 at third asking. Mike Maker trains for Perry and Denise Martin, half of the original partnership that campaigned Horse of the Year California Chrome. Welcome back to the Derby trail.

San Felipe Stakes (G2)

As is expected this time of year at Santa Anita Park, this prep looks short on quantity but high on quality.

The Bob Baffert barn is represented by two unbeaten stakes winners, with Authentic a bit of a mystery off a dominating but green score in the Sham Stakes (G3). His ceiling may well be highest, but stablemate Thousand Words also did just enough to grind out wins in the Los Alamitos Futurity (G2) and Robert B. Lewis Stakes (G3).

Champion Storm the Court, a flat fourth in his return to the races last month, exits the seven-furlong San Vicente Stakes (G2). Already, the buzz is building a bit. That race served as a sharpener, and the Peter Eurton trainee may have run better than it looked at first glance.

Honor A. P. has maintained a lofty position on most Derby lists despite going since Oct. 13 without a race. Part of that was by plan; then, more recently a slight physical setback prevented the conservative trainer John Shirreffs from trying the local 2020 preps. That changes Saturday for this good-looking son of Honor Code.

So, where are maiden winner Great Power and Grade 1-placed American Theorem? Both are working, but as of Sunday, neither were expected to make a season debut in the San Felipe. There’s an allowance option for 3-year-olds in the condition book for March 14 that could serve as a springboard to the Santa Anita Derby (G1).