Kentucky Derby Radar: Chance It's Fountain of Youth-bound

Grade 1 winner Tiz the Law is the expected headline to Saturday's Holy Bull Stakes (G3), while the former Breeders' Cup Juvenile favorite Dennis' Moment is targeting a return to the races in the Feb. 29 Fountain of Youth (G2).

It's not so much the competition, but the potential payouts, that led to Chance It bypassing the Holy Bull.

"We’re going to the Fountain of Youth because it’s 50 points," trainer Saffie Joseph Jr. said, citing the Derby qualifying scale. "The Holy Bull’s only 10 points. It gives us better spacing and that kind of aspect, so that was the decision behind it.”

Chance It, a son of Currency Swap, most recently gutted out a narrow victory over fellow Florida-bred As Seen on Tv in the local Mucho Macho Man Stakes on Jan. 4. It was his third stakes win and fourth victory overall in six starts. Chance It, who runs for Shooting Star Thoroughbeds, hasn't yet missed the exacta.

Running back in the Holy Bull meant, win or lose, that Chance It would have needed more points to qualify for the Kentucky Derby. Meanwhile, both the Fountain of Youth and March 28 Florida Derby (G1) offer the type of points totals where the winner is assumed in the gate on the first Saturday in May.

Joseph Jr., who's making a habit of winning Gulfstream meet titles, is seeking his first Derby starter. Back home in Barbados, he won the Triple Crown as a 22-year-old with Areyoutalkintome and in the U.S. scored a Grade 1 victory with his first starter in such company when Math Wizard upset the 2019 Pennsylvania Derby.

Chance It returned to the work tab Sunday with a three-furlong drill in 36.28 seconds, marking his first bit of work since the Mucho Macho Man. While that race ran around a one-turn mile, Chance It rolled back in September to a 7 1/4-length victory going 1 1/16 miles in the Florida Sire Series' In Reality Stakes.