Kentucky Derby 2019 Radar: Improbable 'the next Justify'?

Before Justify retired last summer and left Bob Baffert’s barn, Elliott Walden, the WinStar president CEO who leads the colt’s ownership group, was already asking when their next big horse would enter serious training.

As soon as Justify left Del Mar, Improbable, another with a chestnut coat and distinct white blaze, took up residence in the same stall.

“He’s always been a forwardly moving horse,” Baffert said this week in an interview on Steve Byk’s At The Races radio show. “I remember when Elliott Walden sent him out — he said, ‘I’m going to send you a good one. I really like him.’ I said, ‘Well, that’s great. Maybe he’ll be the next Justify.’

“Then when they told me his name was Improbable, that’s great. That’s a perfect name.”

Now 3-for-3, the colt, who is also campaigned by China Horse Club and Starlight Racing, is on the 2019 Kentucky Derby trail thanks to last Saturday’s five-length victory in the Los Alamitos Futurity (G1).

Baffert told Byk that more than Improbable’s ownership and looks bear similarities to the Triple Crown winner Justify.

“He’s a lighter version of him,” Baffert said, with Improbable also offering nice mechanics, a long stride and willingness to run. “…The farther he goes, you see he just drops his head.”

The only knock on Improbable is his navigation through turns.

After breaking his maiden Sept. 29 at Santa Anita Park, Improbable shipped to Churchill Downs and won the Street Sense Stakes with ease. In that one turn race, Baffert told Byk, Improbable “came around there like he wasn’t running at all, and all of a sudden when he straightened out he took off.” Saturday’s victory going two turns was similar in nature.

Another way in which these two compare? When Walden sent Justify to Baffert, the Hall of Famer thought he’d received a turf horse based on what he knew about Scat Daddy. The colt ended up the late stallion’s most valuable son.

Baffert has a habit of changing a sire's reputation. He also trained the highest-earning offspring of the late City Zip, Collected, who proved that one’s progeny can get 1 1/4 miles by winning the 2017 Pacific Classic (G1). Improbable is another by City Zip.

The colt's next race plans are undecided, and Baffert has many more promising 2-year-olds to consider spots for in the coming months. Game Winner and Mucho Gusto, the Los Alamitos Futurity runner-up, are both also stakes winners. Additionally, Baffert offered updates on another trio of juveniles on Byk’s show:

• Coliseum, the Godolphin homebred who shot straight on to Derby lists when breaking his maiden with ease on Nov. 17, could target Santa Anita’s Grade 3, $100,000 Sham Stakes going a mile on Jan. 5. “There are no allowances here,” Baffert said. “You have to go in a stakes.”

• Tale of the Union, an Aug. 26 Del Mar maiden winner, is “a little bit behind,” Baffert said. “He just started training again.” The Michael Lund Petersen-owned son of Union Rags closed at 46-1 in Pool 1 of the Kentucky Derby Future Wager.

• Magic On Tap, a Summer Wind Equine charge who broke his maiden Sept. 1 at Del Mar, suffered “a little setback” and missed 30 days of training. The Tapit colt was 43-1 in the Future Wager.