Kentucky Derby 2019 Radar: Estihdaaf tops Walking Thunder

Walking Thunder will go on from a defeat in Thursday’s UAE 2000 Guineas (G3), but given his loss, there’s a new name to know on Dubai’s road to the 2019 Kentucky Derby.

The familiar combination of Godolphin, trainer Saeed bin Suroor and jockey Christophe Soumillon are behind Estihdaaf, a Kentucky-bred son by Arch and out of a Ghostzapper mare. Estihdaaf started his career on turf but has posted far better results in two races this winter over the Meydan dirt.

“He looks to love it,” Soumillon said of the surface switch. “It’s a good point, because the good races for 3-year-olds are on dirt here.”

“This is one of the options,” bin Suroor added of trying the UAE Derby (G2). “But we’ll talk to Sheikh Mohammed. He’ll make the decision.”

He could follow the path these same connections used with Thunder Snow in 2017, winning the UAE Derby before heading to Churchill Downs. A repeat trip would come at a mild cost, as Estihdaaf did not appear on this week’s list of 362 early Triple Crown nominations.

Estihdaaf completed 1,600 meters, or about a mile, around one turn in a final time of 1:39.87 — but only after he was off slowest of eight, rushed up the rail and ran inside while four-wide through the turn.

The colt kicked away to an easy 5 1/2-length victory once straightened out at the top of the lane.

“He jumped quite slowly,” said Soumillon, who then followed bin Suroor’s instructions to get near the pace. “…When I hit the front, I was quite confident, because I know when you have a horse like him — a bit lazy — when you can hit the front and relax for a while, it’s hard to catch.”

Estihdaaf raced four times in Europe before his Dubai bow, in which he finished a narrow second in the Jan. 23 Al Bastakiya Trial, closing well in the stretch that day going 1,800 meters. On Thursday, he became the third straight UAE 2000 Guineas winner for Godolphin as well as bin Suroor’s record seventh winner in the stakes.

Walking Thunder, Phoenix Thoroughbreds’ previously undefeated favorite, broke well before settling behind the pace. Facing a three-wide wall of horses, he was forced outside of that four-wide duel. Once across the Wire, Walking Thunder did gallop out well ahead of Estihdaaf.

The March 30 UAE Derby pays out Kentucky Derby qualifying points on a 100-40-20-10 scale in addition to a lucrative $2.5 million purse. Other contenders for the final prep could emerge from the March 9 Al Bastakiya Stakes for 3-year-olds at at 1,900 meters.