Kentucky Derby 2019 Daily: Will Baffert's stars meet in the Rebel?
Welcome to Horse Racing Nation’s Kentucky Derby Daily, which will each day leading up to the May 4 race at Churchill Downs detail all the news and notes related to contenders in one convenient space.
In order for Oaklawn Park to split the Grade 2, $1 million Rebel Stakes on March 16 into two divisions, about five more horses need to be declared probable to enter the Kentucky Derby 2019 prep, Oaklawn’s Media Relations Manager, Jennifer Hoyt, said Thursday.
Oaklawn President Louis Cella announced a day prior that the track was prepared to run two divisions of the Rebel to accommodate horsemen who planned to enter in Saturday’s San Felipe Stakes (G2) at Santa Anita, where racing is suspended for further evaluation of the main track surface.
Should the Rebel split — Oaklawn is requiring at least 20 entries — the purse would pay out $750,000 for both divisions. Given the money would be 75 percent of the original total, so too would the qualifying points, based on rules set by Churchill Downs, with the Top 4 of the two flights to earn them on a 37.5-15-7.5-3.75 scale.
Bob Baffert was expected to start both juvenile champion Game Winner and Los Alamitos Futurity (G1) winner Improbable in the San Felipe with plans to ship Grade 3 winner Mucho Gusto to the Rebel. Hoyt said Oaklawn is for now unsure if Baffert will ship all three, with the Hall of Fame conditioner scheduled to work his prospects Sunday at Los Alamitos.
If only two Baffert runners enter and the Rebel splits, they would not draw into the same division.
“We will split common ownership and common trainers,” Hoyt said. “If Baffert should send Game Winner and Improbable, they would each go into a separate division. Steve (Asmussen) right now is saying he’s running four, so he would probably run two and two. From there, it will be random.”
Baffert benefitted in 2012 when Oaklawn Park split the Southwest Stakes (G3) due to an overflow of entries. The trainer won with Castaway in a field of 11 and Secret Circle in a field of 10.
Santa Anita announced in a news release intentions to reschedule the San Felipe, but the date is unknown. That creates a timing issue with the Santa Anita Derby (G1), a final major Derby prep, scheduled for April 6. Plus, Baffert’s stars — neither of which have made their 3-year-old debuts — need to get running.
“We know that Santa Anita is going through a very difficult time, and we’re certainly not trying to take advantage of that,” Hoyt said. “But at the same time, we know how important the Kentucky Derby trail is to a lot of horsemen, and if we can help some horsemen stay on schedule and possibly make it, then we want to help with that.”
Prep fields set
Even without the San Felipe, there’s a massive weekend ahead on the Derby trail with three other points qualifiers set. Meet the fields for each:
• Tampa Bay Derby odds and analysis
• Gotham Stakes odds and analysis
• Jeff Ruby Steaks odds and analysis
Derby links
• In handicapping the Tampa Bay Derby, assume they’re all out to catch Well Defined. Trainer Kathleen O’Connell expects the Sam F. Davis (G3) winner to leave running
• HRN’s Reinier Macatangay analyzed the Gotham Stakes and came away unsure he’d bet on it, given the X factor that is Instagrand going a career-long distance off the layoff.
• Casey Laughter, who will be on site for Saturday’s Jeff Ruby Steaks, offered her top choices, wondering if favored Somelikeithotbrown should be singled on tickets.