Kentucky Derby 2019 Daily: Will Hidden Scroll 'overcome' it all?
Welcome to Horse Racing Nation’s Kentucky Derby Daily, which will each day leading up to the May 4 race at Churchill Downs detail all the news and notes related to contenders in one convenient space.
In an age when horses are going into the Kentucky Derby with less of a so-called foundation — fewer races and patient beginnings to their careers — Juddmonte Farms General Manager Garrett O’Rourke still considers Justify the exception to the rule.
“Supreme talent can always overcome — especially if you’re a frontrunner and stay out of trouble,” O’Rourke said of the Triple Crown winner, who debuted in February.
But couldn’t the same still apply to Hidden Scroll on the first Saturday in May?
The speedy type going in Saturday’s Florida Derby (G1) also made it late to the races due to an injury in training at age 2, starting Jan. 26 with an eye-popping victory that registered a 104 Beyer Speed Figure. That is, for those keeping score, the same as Justify earned first out.
Hidden Scroll’s Fountain of Youth (G2) defeat appears a bit better now in hindsight, too, given he dueled what was viewed as a hopeless longshot in Gladiator King on the early lead. That rival came back to win the Hutcheston (G3) around one turn last weekend.
Navigating from the inside post, Hidden Scroll will have to find a way to the Top 2 in the Florida Derby to continue on to the 2019 Kentucky Derby on points.
“It’s a concern if we were putting all of our chips on the Derby alone,” O’Rourke said, “but given the horse is inexperienced, we’ve said from the start — Bill (Mott) has said as well — if this doesn’t work this weekend, we can regroup with this horse. He’s such a talent.”
“Talent” was a word O’Rourke used often this week when speaking to reporters on an NTRA media teleconference. Connections don’t know whether Hidden Scroll prefers to go short or long, but they know he can run.
It sets Juddmonte up for a potential 1-2 punch in the Kentucky Derby with Tampa Bay Derby (G2) winner Tacitus more of an off-the-pace type. The first foal out of Close Hatches will finish prepping in next weekend’s Wood Memorial (G2) at Aqueduct.
“I just hope we don’t ever get to a scenario where one’s going backwards and the other one’s going forward and neither of them’s getting there,” O’Rourke said with a laugh. “But I think it’s a nice situation that we’re in covering the bases.”
O’Rourke made a point as well that while Hidden Scroll is relatively new to racing, he trained dating to the middle of last year with Mott’s Churchill Downs string. A setback derailed plans to saddle him for a start as soon as the September Meet under the Twin Spires.
If Hidden Scroll qualifies for the Derby, and if Mott sees him fit to run 1 1/4 miles in a field of 20, there are two factors Justify dealt with well in O’Rourke’s eyes. Mentally, will a young horse “boil over” on the big day? And once in the gate, will he get to run his race?
“I think the beauty of Hidden Scroll, hopefully, is that he’s got the natural speed to be closer to the front than the back by the time they hit the first turn, similar to what Justify had,” O’Rourke said. “I think that is the type of horse that can overcome the inexperience. The crowd factor is still a very big hurdle as well.”
The more immediate obstacle is only a few hours away.
Derby links
• From a handicapping perspective, Mike Shutty, author of Horse Racing Nation’s Super Screener, considers Hidden Scroll key to the Florida Derby. But not necessarily to win it.
• Free Florida Derby past performances are now available. Be sure to bookmark our PPs page for weekly PDFs for top stakes features from Brisnet.
• A blockbuster edition of the Kentucky Winner’s Circle podcast features Bourbon War trainer Mark Hennig and Jay Privman, national correspondent for the Daily Racing Form, previewing the Florida Derby.
In case you missed it…
Thursday’s Derby Daily report featured Todd Pletcher’s change of fortune on the trail. He has two horses in the field as of last weekend and isn’t done yet.