Kentucky Derby 2019 Daily: What did the Rebel Stakes change?

Welcome to Horse Racing Nation’s Kentucky Derby Daily, which will each day leading up to the May 4 race at Churchill Downs detail all the news and notes related to contenders in one convenient space.

The expectation going into Saturday’s split division of the Rebel Stakes (G2): That one or both of Bob Baffert’s favorites would win off the layoff and position themselves to improve next time on the Kentucky Derby 2019 trail.

Despite losses for Improbable by a neck and Game Winner by a nose, that still appears to be the case, right?

Sure, what Saturday means for the 2019 Kentucky Derby trail still, of course, remains to be seen. Perhaps lack of total dominance by the Baffert duo signals these colts aren’t the same caliber as his Triple Crown winners, American Pharoah and Justify. They could have just needed the race, too, with final preps poised to restore some order for the Hall of Fame conditioner.

Until the Baffert horses re-assert themselves, there's room to make a case other horses in the No. 1 spot on those all-popular Derby lists. But Game Winner and Improbable have by no means slipped far, if at all.

Mike Shutty, author of Horse Racing Nation’s Super Screener handicapping system, lists three horses that ran Saturday in his early “Super 7” colts he projects with the best shot on the first Saturday in May: Baffert's big guns and Omaha Beach.

The latter, a narrow winner of the second Rebel flight for trainer Richard Mandella, earned Shutty’s nod as the win pick going into the race.

“His last work going six furlongs was just sensational,” Shutty said. “Prior to his blowout win in the slop going seven panels, his race before in which he dueled with Nolo Contesto throughout, drawing away from the rest of the field before finally yielding to that foe by a narrow margin at the wire, was also very impressive — especially since it was his first race off a layoff.”

Shutty notes that Omaha Beach’s effort also flatters the Baffert trainee Roadster, who went on to defeat Nolo Contesto in a two-turn allowance at Santa Anita Park.

“Take nothing away from Game Winner’s game second-place finish here,” Shutty said. “He hadn’t raced since last November, needed the race, and has bigger targets in front of him. No question he moves forward in a big way off this race.

“If Game Winner and Omaha Beach face off again in their next start, Game Winner takes it. Omaha Beach already has enough points now to get into the Kentucky Derby field, so no need to push the horse too hard in his next start.”

Shutty doesn’t consider any outside of the Rebel Stakes exactas as serious Derby runners. And he’s weary of Long Range Toddy, winner of the first division, which Shutty likened to the colt’s “personal Kentucky Derby, as he has raced quite a bit now without a break.”

“Not sure what will be left in the tank in subsequent starts,” Shutty added, “but hats off to the connections for getting him ready to run his lifetime top here.”

As for Improbable, the handicapper said the City Zip colt “clearly needed the race, and there is no question this one will move forward in his next start. As for the Kentucky Derby’s 1 1/4-mile distance, we’ll see — but count on a new lifetime top next out.”

Derby links

Exiting Rebel day, Horse Racing Nation’s Bryan Brinkmeyer examines who’s in, our and on the Kentucky Derby points bubble.

Mandella says he’ll take Omaha Beach’s next race decision “by ear,” with Oaklawn Park’s publicity staff updating Saturday’s winners.

Baffert was quick to declare Game Winner and Improbable for their final prep starts, with one set to return to Oaklawn for the Arkansas Derby (G1).

In case you missed it…

Saturday’s Derby Daily report updated the Louisiana Derby favorite War of Will’s progress since his victories in the Lecomte (G3) and Risen Star (G2).