Kentucky Derby 2019 Daily: The 'Super 7' early contenders
Welcome to Horse Racing Nation’s Kentucky Derby Daily, which will each day leading up to the May 4 race at Churchill Downs detail all the news and notes related to contenders in one convenient space.
As we embark on another season of the Derby Daily Report, it’s worth looking back to this time last year, when Horse Racing Nation’s contenders page for the 2018 race already included seven eventual Derby runners in its Top 25.
Assuming a similar number of 2019 Kentucky Derby contenders have already revealed themselves, who are those “Super 7” horses? And before wondering if it’s too soon, trainer Bob Baffert doesn’t anticipate another serious late bloomer from his barn.
“The good ones I have, they all have a start,” Baffert told us recently. “We don’t have to worry about the Apollo Curse. I don’t have any Justifys lingering out there.”
Based on what we’ve seen so far, here are seven big names to know…
1. Game Winner: Baffert stood outside his barn last year at Churchill Downs, glanced back to signage bearing names of his five previous Derby winners, and wondered whether this son of Candy Ride could add his name to the list. That was before Game Winner moved his record to 4-for-4 with a rallying victory in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. The Gary and Mary West charge comes in a plain brown wrapper, perhaps why he hasn’t received the hype you’d expect of an undefeated 2-year-old champ. Then again, there are also talented stablemates nipping at his heels.
2. Improbable: This one had his coming out party on Breeders’ Cup weekend as well, dominating the Street Sense Stakes, an event that has produced a Derby contender in each of its runnings since inaugurated in 2013. The City Zip colt continued to move forward when winning the Los Alamitos Futurity (G1) and will be treated like a big horse going into 2019. Improbable runs for WinStar Farm, China Horse Club and Starlight Racing — connections to Justify — and Baffert anticipates two starts for both he and Game Winner ahead of the Kentucky Derby.
3. Maximus Mischief: There are Smarty Jones vibes emanating from this former Parx Racing-based runner, who proved his lofty speed ratings at the Pennsylvania were no fluke in winning the Remsen Stakes (G2) last out. Trainer Robert “Butch” Reid has relocated to Gulfstream Park for the winter and will point the Cash is King LLC and LC Racing runner to Gulfstream’s Holy Bull (G2) for his 3-year-old debut. The son of Into Mischief has won his three races by a combined 17 lengths and owns three of the Top 11 Beyer Speed Figures from the crop.
4. Signalman: Trainer Kenny McPeek excels with modestly priced horses, and this $32,000 purchase is more proof. McPeek expects the large son of General Quarters to run the first Saturday in May after Signalman broke his maiden at Saratoga, achieved Grade 1-placed status in his next two starts, then found running room late to take Churchill Downs’ Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes (G2). It will be months before we learn the true strength of that field, but the thought here is narrow Kentucky Jockey Club runner-up Plus Que Parfait is a real runner, and Signalman showed he likes the going under the Twin Spires.
5. Coliseum: He’s certainly less proven than those mentioned before, but the flashy gray has been hyped since before he signaled some potential brilliance on debut Nov. 17 in a maiden special weight romp at Del Mar. Godolphin sent the homebred to Baffert — Sheikh Mohammed’s group has done just about everything but win the Derby — and if anyone can rein in a headstrong Tapit colt, it’s the Hall of Famer. The follow-up effort is expected Saturday in Santa Anita’s Grade 3, $100,000 Sham Stakes, in which Coliseum should go favored.
6. Code of Honor: Another scheduled to run Saturday, this one is named similarly, of course, to Honor Code, who was also trained by Shug McGaughey in the green and yellow colors of Will Farish’s Lane’s End Farm. Code of Honor stumbled at the start of Belmont Park’s Champagne Stakes (G1), finished second, and will go nearly three months between races before returning in Gulfstream’s Mucho Macho Man Stakes. But he likely would have gone off as the second choice in the Juvenile had a fever not counted him out the morning of the race.
7. Vekoma: He made an auspicious debut Sept. 23 when defeating future stakes runners Epic Dreamer and Mihos, then gave connections reason to wonder about his potential when running greenly, yet fast, to win the Nashua Stakes (G3). Rather than circle back in the Remsen, trainer George Weaver shipped the colt to Florida for careful handling geared toward getting this son of Candy Ride to Churchill Downs. Weaver started his first Derby horse, Tencendur, back in 2015, but this appears a different sort of talent with his speed figures on par with the best of this class.
Three more to know
Why not make it a Top 10?
We’d be remiss not to mention Instagrand, who many will argue belongs in the above list. The Into Mischief colt is 2-for-2 with wins by 10 and 10 1/2 lengths but was shut down after his victory in the Aug. 11 Best Pal (G2) with longevity in mind. We don’t yet know just how far he’ll carry that speed, and the Jerry Hollendorfer trainee is just getting started with his first breeze since Sept. 10 on Sunday at three furlongs
It’s likely Knicks Go will continue to be dismissed by bettors, but he won Keeneland’s Breeders’ Futurity (G1) in a major upset, then turned around to finish second in the Juvenile. He didn’t continue the run in the Kentucky Jockey Club but already has 18 qualifying points toward the Derby, about 10 short of what he'd need to make the field in an average year. Trainer Ben Colebook is likely to send the son of Paynter back on the Derby trail at Tampa Bay Downs.
My Boy Jack (fifth), Flameaway (13th) and Mendelssohn (20th) all ran on turf before pointing to last year’s Derby. Uncle Benny could take the same route for the red-hot trainer Jason Servis after a narrow defeat — and a close call by stewards to leave him second — in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf. It's often said that grass runners can excel on Churchill’s dirt, and connections indicate they’ll try this one on the main track as a 3-year-old.
Derby links
• If you’re on board with the Derby Daily, be sure to read our regular Derby Radar reports as well. Going back to the fall, we’ve identified and told the early stories of a number of horses that turned 3 on New Year’s Day and will hit the trail.
• Led by Hopeful Stakes (G1) winner Mind Control, the $150,000 Jerome, the first Derby points race of the year, is set for Tuesday afternoon at Aqueduct. Our Reinier Macatangay handicapped it with his selections now available.
• Two more stakes for 3-year-olds run this weekend, with Code of Honor and Coliseum set to headline the Mucho Macho Man and Sham, respectively. Our Stakes Tracker provides a look at the prospective fields ahead of Wednesday's post position draws.
The works
A number of Derby trail runners or horses heading that way have put in recent works, indicating they’re prepared to move forward…
Bankit — The fast-closing Remington Springboard Mile runner-up has relocated to Oaklawn Park, where on Friday he breezed four furlongs in 51.80 seconds (20/27).
Kingly — The Baffert maiden winner and full brother to Mohaymen has worked three times since his debut victory on Dec. 1 at Del Mar. His most-recent move measured six furlongs in 1:14.80 (2/4) last Wednesday.
Long Range Toddy — The Springboard Mile winner, as with Bankit, is trained by Steve Asmussen. He also moved from Oklahoma to Oaklawn and drilled a half mile in 51.80 seconds (20/27) last Friday.
Mucho Gusto — Defeated by Improbable in the Los Alamitos Futurity, he took the customary two weeks in getting back to work and most recently breezed four furlongs on New Year’s Eve in 47.80 seconds (6/71).
Tight Ten — Graded stakes-placed, but ninth in the Juvenile, this early speed type could get another try on the trail in the upcoming Lecomte (G3) at Fair Grounds. He has five works in, including one on Monday at Fair Grounds, where the Asmussen runner went 5/8 of a mile in 1:01.80 (5/39).
War of Will — Probable for the Lecomte, this experienced stakes runner broke his maiden in an off-the-turf maiden event at Churchill Downs. Trainer Mark Casse will keep him on the main track with his Sunday local work the bullet for five furlongs in 1:01.20.