Kentucky Derby 2019 Daily: So, who’s the favorite now?
Welcome to Horse Racing Nation’s Kentucky Derby Daily, which will each day leading up to the May 4 race at Churchill Downs detail all the news and notes related to contenders in one convenient space.
Granted, there is still one major Kentucky Derby 2019 prep to run, and either Omaha Beach or Improbable could steal the spotlight with a big run in next weekend’s Arkansas Derby (G1).
But truly, it’s Saturday on which we expected to see the eventual morning line favorite run. Mike Battaglia, who has set the odds at Churchill Downs for decades, said Game Winner was primed to be the top choice with a Santa Anita Derby (G1) victory.
But what happens after a wide-running, half-length defeat?
“That shakes it up,” Battaglia said Sunday.
In the points era — the last six Derbys — Classic Empire’s 4-1 morning line favoritism for the 2017 running was Battaglia’s highest yet for a top choice. He said that price “is about as low as you can go” with this group.
“I can’t see any clear-cut 5-2 favorite — not this year,” Battaglia added, “unless Improbable wins the Arkansas Derby by eight open lengths or sets a track record or something that no one’s really done, and that’s throw in a sensational race.”
| Mike Battaglia's Points-Era Favorites | |||
| Year | Horse | ML Odds | Final Odds |
| 2018 | Justify | 3-1 | 2.9-1 |
| 2017 | Classic Empire | 4-1 | 6.8-1 |
| 2016 | Nyquist | 3-1 | 2.3-1 |
| 2015 | American Pharoah | 5-2 | 2.9-1 |
| 2014 | California Chrome | 5-2 | 2.5-1 |
| 2013 | Orb | 7-2 | 5.4-1 |
Battaglia said he was impressed by all three of Saturday’s prep winners: Tacitus in the Wood Memorial (G2), Vekoma in the Blue Grass (G2) and Roadster in the Santa Anita Derby (G1). He’s also high on Maximum Security, the Florida Derby (G1) winner who “could be an absolute freak. But the fact that he ran for a tag the first time will keep people away from him.”
Pending a standout effort next week at Oaklawn Park, it’s Roadster who will go under consideration for morning line favoritism along with Game Winner, even though the reigning 2-year-old champion has lost two straight to open his season. But, said Baffert: “I think Game Winner’s next race will be better. I’ve been bringing him along really easy.”
Battaglia likened the situation to 2015, when American Pharoah exited a victory in the Arkansas Derby and Dortmund took the Santa Anita Derby. Baffert never publicly disclosed which he preferred to win on the first Saturday in May.
“But you can get a sense of it,” Battaglia said. “It was close between who was going to be the favorite between those two. When you went over by the barn, you heard American Pharoah, American Pharoah. You didn’t hear a lot about Dortmund.”
Derby links
• Much of the field has formed up, with Bryan Brinkmeyer’s look at who’s in, out and on the Kentucky Derby bubble summing up the points picture leaving Saturday.
• Outside of the points preps, there were two additions revealed Saturday. First, UAE Derby (G2) runner-up Gray Magician is poised to train up to the Derby after being originally termed “highly unlikely” to give it a try.
• Second, Churchill Downs confirmed that connections to the Japan-based runner Master Fencer have accepted an invitation to the Kentucky Derby.
In case you missed it…
Saturday’s Derby Daily report outlined prospective fields for next weekend’s final preps, the Arkansas Derby and Keeneland’s Lexington Stakes (G3).