Kentucky Derby 2019 Daily: ‘Real talent’ in El Camino Real Derby

Welcome to Horse Racing Nation’s Kentucky Derby Daily, which will each day leading up to the May 4 race at Churchill Downs detail all the news and notes related to contenders in one convenient space.

In announcing a “Win and You’re In” tie-in between the Preakness Stakes and the El Camino Derby, also a 2019 Kentucky Derby prep set for Saturday, host track Golden Gate Fields mentioned a few past greats.

Both 1994 Preakness winner Tabasco Cat and 1998 Derby winner Real Quiet came through the San Francisco oval on their way to classic success.

“It’s been a while,” said track announcer Matt Dinerman, “but it’s one of those sneaky races where maybe not every year you get great horses, but a lot of them end up OK. This might be one of those years. You’ve got some horses with real talent.”

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With a field of 13 set to go 1 1/8 miles on the synthetic, we spoke to Dinerman about the $100,000 El Camino Real Derby, unique given its surface and distance. A rising name to know in the racing industry, Dinerman said the track could end up deeper given rain this week in Northern California, though he doesn’t expect it to favor a certain running style.

RELATED: Free El Camino Real Derby past performances

The key to winning this one?

“They bunch up on the far turn while turning for home usually, so there probably will be horses that it’ll make or break their race based on the trip they get,” Dinerman said. “If you move too early, you usually get burned. We saw that last year with a horse named Mugaritz. He got really tired the last 1/16th.”

Overall, Dinerman added, “I think this is a race where you’re going to see a relatively formful outcome unless somebody improves.”

He may not have a win pick readied until race day, but Dinerman already considers these his top four choices:

#4 Anothertwistafate (5-2)

“I don’t know if I’m going to put him on top, but I like him,” Dinerman said. “I think he’s the real deal. I think he’s as good as they think he is. He has a good way of moving — has a high knee action, but he’s a very athletic, powerful-striding horse. I’m not a big gallop out guy, but I will say this horse on his gallop outs has a lot left in the tank. I don’t think the extra furlong is going to be a problem.”

#7 Eagle Song (5-1)

“I think it’s interesting he won over in Europe on synthetic, and I like the way he ran last out,” Dinerman said. “He beat a couple of the (Doug) O’Neill horses on turf. He rallied on like a horse that will be fine going another furlong. If Eagle Song comes up here, I think he’s in for a big shot, and he’s going to sort of be your wise-guy horse. There always seems to be one.”

#9 Kingly (2-1)

“I think Baffert’s horse is green. He sort of runs with his head cocked,” Dinerman said. “I think he’s going to get the right trip. He’s going to stalk the pace. I don’t think he’ll be on the lead necessarily. He’ll be stalking or pressuring, and I think he has the class or talent. It looks like a very clever move for Bob to put him up here. It’s a little bit of an easier prep than the Southwest at Oaklawn or the Risen Star.”

#12 More Ice (8-1)

“He’s drawn outside, so I really think this horse is going to be in the clear, and that’s going to help him,” Dinerman said. “He’s worked a couple times over the track. I heard from the assistant trainer the jockey said he thought he worked really good the first time, then came back and worked even better. This horse knows the track underneath him. He’ll be sitting midfield or so and can make a decent run.”

Derby links

• With War of Will the one to beat in Saturday’s Risen Star (G2), bloodstock agent Justin Casse, younger brother of Mark, detailed how he found the turf-to-dirt star overseas.

•  A field of 11 is set for Oaklawn Park’s next Derby prep. See Southwest Stakes odds and analysis ahead of Monday’s race.

• A new edition of the HorseCenter video show, hosted by HRN’s Matt Shifman and Brian Zipse, runs down picks for each of the three points races mentioned here. 

In case you missed it...

Thursday’s Derby Daily report similarly honed in on the Risen Star with handicapping from Fair Grounds analyst Joe Kristufek.