Kentucky Derby 2019 Daily: Probables for the March 9 preps
Welcome to Horse Racing Nation’s Kentucky Derby Daily, which will each day leading up to the May 4 race at Churchill Downs detail all the news and notes related to contenders in one convenient space.
Fields are forming for the biggest afternoon on the 2019 Kentucky Derby trail to date, with four points-paying preps all scheduled for Saturday across the country.
Three of those pay out points on a 50-20-10-5 scale, while Turfway Park’s Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3) is worth 20-8-4-2 points to its Top 4. The race on synthetic runs earlier this year, as it's no longer designed as a final Derby prep.
With input from racing offices and publicity departments, here are expected contenders:
Gotham Stakes (G3)
This is shaping up to be one of the strongest Gothams in recent memory with Instagrand and Much Better shipping in from California. Grade 1 winners Mind Control and Knicks Go are targeting this race, while Call Paul and Haikal enter off stakes victories.
Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3)
Somelikeithotbrown, who nearly won the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf, looked nice in switching to synthetic for this race’s local prep, the John Battaglia Memorial. Otherwise, some big barns will be represented, but not by their biggest prospects.
Tampa Bay Derby (G2)
Local stakes winners Well Defined and Win Win Win should receive a stiff challenge from recent Fair Grounds allowance winner Dream Maker, who looks like he could go favored off a monster effort, and Tacitus, who makes his season debut here.
San Felipe Stakes (G2)
It’s all about the Big 2 trained by Bob Baffert. Prognosticators giving the early edge to Improbable over Game Winner based on recent works. A 1-2 finish in that order, given Game Winner’s 30 points already accumulated, would qualify both for the Derby with one prep to go.
Derby links
• Trainers Shug McGaughey (Code of Honor) and Mark Hennig (Bourbon War) discussed what’s next for their runners in a follow up from Saturday’s Fountain of Youth Stakes. A rematch could be ahead in the Florida Derby.
• It remains to be decided on what’s next for Hidden Scroll, defeated as the Fountain of Youth favorite. Trainer Bill Mott discussed what happened at Gulfstream Park.
• Southwest Stakes winner Super Steed is off the Derby trail, trainer Larry Jones said Sunday, and another prominent runner from Oaklawn Park’s prep series will also miss the upcoming Rebel Stakes.
• Trainer Richard Mandella will send recent Santa Anita maiden winner Omaha Beach out of town, but it’s not to dodge Baffert’s charges. Mandella explains what’s up with the War Front colt in our latest Derby Radar update.
• War of Will remains on schedule to make the Louisiana Derby his final prep with a Saturday return to the work tab. Assistant trainer David Carroll offers more on that colt and Dream Maker ahead of their stakes engagements.