Kentucky Derby 2019 Daily: Mind Control’s prep plans set

Welcome to Horse Racing Nation’s Kentucky Derby Daily, which will each day leading up to the May 4 race at Churchill Downs detail all the news and notes related to contenders in one convenient space.

Given Mind Control’s propensity to go off form when shipping, trainer Greg Sacco is content to bunker down in New York, keeping the 2019 Kentucky Derby hopeful at home during what may end up a harsh winter.

A winner of the Jan. 1 Jerome Stakes at Aqueduct, Mind Control returned to the work tab last week on Belmont Park’s training track, where the son of Stay Thirsty breezed a half mile Tuesday in 49.77 seconds. Sacco caught the gallop out in 1:01.

“Mind Control and a couple others have settled in nicely,” Sacco told the NYRA press office of his New York string. “We’re really satisfied with the accommodations at Belmont, and the training track there is in great shape, which is a great plus for any trainer.”

The Red Oak Stable and Madaket Stables runner remains on track to start in the Feb. 2 Withers Stakes (G3) back at Aqueduct. Passing that test would mean a return for the Wood Memorial (G2).

The race spacing provides a full month before the Kentucky Derby, which could be key to getting Mind Control there healthy. He scratched from Breeders’ Futurity (G1) last fall at Keeneland with a spiked temperature, and Sacco has called the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile “a debacle” due to a poor trip and seventh-place finish.

Then Mind Control turned around to win the Jerome with ease. Now the excitement level for what could be Sacco’s first Derby starter is “pretty high.”

“He's a neat horse to be around," Sacco said. “The Hopeful was really exciting and after the little mishap at the Breeders' Cup, where he just wasn't himself, he rebounded great in the Jerome. We're excited to see how far he will take us.”

The question of distance still looms with the Withers a 1 1/8-mile test. Both the Hopeful and Jerome were won on the front end under jockey John Velazquez.

"You don't know if they can do it until they're in it, but the way he's trained, and the way he's galloped out in the mornings, doesn't give us the indication he won't be able to handle it,” Sacco said.

He looked back to Mind Control’s first victory for example.

"When he broke his maiden at Monmouth, he laid off a horse comfortably and then drew off, so I don't think he has to be on the lead," Sacco said. "Just the way it set up in the Jerome, the outside horse (Souper Jackpot) wasn’t gunning for the lead so Johnny just sat there.”

On a big day for the Derby trail, Mind Control should meet Todd Pletcher maiden winner Moretti, as well as the talented New York-bred Le General, in the Withers. The same afternoon, Santa Anita Park hosts the Robert B. Lewis (G3) and Gulfstream Park the Holy Bull (G2).

Super Screener says…

Mike Shutty, author of Horse Racing Nation’s Super Screener handicapping system, listed War of Will as an “A” contender in last weekend’s Lecomte Stakes (G3). And the colt delivered.

“This is a legit Kentucky Derby player, as he submitted a running line that is very comparable to the early running lines produced by past Derby trail horses in their early prep before going on to Kentucky Derby glory,” Shutty said.

War of Will also met the Super Screener’s eight criteria common to eventual Derby winners in their early prep race with a Brisnet Late Pace number exceeding 100. The son of War Front’s numbers ascended from 79 (first call) to 81 (second call) to 106 (Late Pace).

“This is a classic early prep running line that is highly predictive of strong performance further down the Derby trail,” Shutty said. “This colt should be on your Derby radar off of this top performance.”

Detail those eight criteria as part of our free guide by clicking the image below:

Derby links

• Current Kentucky Derby odds from William Hill U.S. show big value on War of Will, who isn’t among the Top 30 choices coming out of the Lecomte. 

• HRN’s Laura Pugh graded out last weekend’s Derby and Oaks preps, giving high marks to the Lecomte winner — but not necessarily his competition.

• The Daily Racing Form’s Marcus Hersh reports that Manny Wah, third in the Lecomte, isn’t certain to continue on the Derby trail.