Kentucky Derby 2019 Daily: Going Lecomte ‘price shopping’

Welcome to Horse Racing Nation’s Kentucky Derby Daily, which will each day leading up to the May 4 race at Churchill Downs detail all the news and notes related to contenders in one convenient space.

Joe Kristufek, Fair Grounds’ racing analyst, considers Saturday’s Grade 2, $200,000 Lecomte Stakes to be “crazy wide-open.” That’s because the 1-mile, 70-yard 2019 Kentucky Derby prep attracted 15 entrants, each looking for their first stakes victory.

Then you add in that for some, this race marks a two-turn debut, the stretch in New Orleans is among the longest on the Derby trail, and the forecast calls for rain…

“When you say it’s a good betting race, that’s an understatement,” Kristufek. And he concluded: “I think you really need to go price shopping.”

Kristufek shared his Top 4 selections with us ahead of the Lecomte, which goes as Race 12 at 6:49 p.m. ET.

No. 13, Manny Wah (10-1)

“The post is not favorable,” Kristufek said. “There’s a handful of horses that have speed inside of him. I just think he’s going to be every bit of 10-1, and (trainer Wayne) Catalano’s loved this horse from the beginning. He’s got some heartiness to him. He’s got quite a bit of speed and experience.

“I really think he took a big step forward in the (Dec. 22) Sugar Bowl when he put the blinkers on. Gray Attempt went wire to wire. The pace looks fast on paper, but it was a kind of controlled even pace all the way around. I thought Manny Wah ran huge, and he’s bred to be a two-turn horse. He’s training great.”

No. 3, Tackett (6-1)

“I really think he’s going to get a great trip,” Kristufek said. “Post 3, tactical speed, showed some heart last time when he beat Owendale sitting a couple of lengths off of it instead of getting the easy lead like how he did before.”

No. 8, War of Will (6-1)

“I think he really needs to get a clean trip,” Kristufek said. “He needs to be stalking of pressing like he did in the special weight race, because he got a perfect trip that day. He was visually impressive. He’s won in the slop. He’s going to be forwardly placed. He’s bred to be a turf horse, right? But I think what we saw from him last time — and he’s been on the grounds pointing for this race — means he has a shot.”

No. 4, Mr. Money (5-1)

Editor's note: This interview occurred before the Daily Racing Form reported Friday that Mr. Money will scratch due to sickness.

“I think he’s going to get over-bet because he’s got Game Winner and Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and fourth out 13 in his past performances. The maiden win at Churchill in late September, he didn’t beat anything…I just think he’s going to get over-bet. Would I be surprised if he won? No. If he pays $12 and wins, good for everybody who bet on him. I picked him fourth. It’s not that I dislike him. But I think you’re going to find better value elsewhere.”

Lecomte links

Yep, there's more…

Horse Racing Nation contributors listed their Lecomte Stakes picks and predictions. In the win spot most are Plus Que Parfait and Tackett.

The Super Screener handicapping system suggests a longshot choice as well to use on your tickets. Says trainer Tom Amoss: “I think when you look at him in the paddock, you will see a good looking, physical horse that is going to catch your eye.”

Also, courtesy of Brisnet check out free Lecomte Stakes past performances.

Derby Radar

Two horses that look worthy of Derby trail starts posted wins Thursday afternoon…

First, Country House, a son of Lookin At Lucky, was away slowest of them all in a maiden special weight flight at Gulfstream. He made a huge rally to win, and did so stylishly. The Beyer Speed Figure came back as just a 70, likely the product of his break. See trainer Bill Mott’s comments.

Later, Owendale stole the show in a Fair Grounds allowance for non-winners of two races, defeating well-regarded Gun It and Cornacchia. The Risen Star (G2) should be next for the improving type, who has already started six times but looks like a new horse in the new year. We've got more on all three horses.

The works

Epic Dreamer — We’ll check in with trainer Kelly Breen soon on what’s ahead for the beaten Springboard Mile favorite. Since the December race, the son of Orb has breezed three times at Florida’s Palm Meadows Training Center, on Friday going four furlongs in 49.20 seconds.

Gray Attempt — Certain to be one of the top choices for next Friday’s Smarty Jones Stakes at Oaklawn Park, the Jinks Fires-trained son of Graydar tuned up with a five-furlong drill in 1:00.20, the bullet from 55 times at Oaklawn Park.