Kentucky Derby 2019 Daily: Kristufek handicaps Risen Star
Welcome to Horse Racing Nation’s Kentucky Derby Daily, which will each day leading up to the May 4 race at Churchill Downs detail all the news and notes related to contenders in one convenient space.
On Lecomte Stakes (G3) day last month at Fair Grounds, trainer Mark Casse joined Joe Kristufek for an interview during the undercard, and the racing analyst made sure to ask about War of Will.
“He was exuding confidence before the race,” Kristufek said of Casse, “he was proven right after the race, and he has the same level of confidence going into this race.”
This race, of course, being Saturday’s Grade 2, $400,000 Risen Star Stakes, the first major points-paying prep on the 2019 Kentucky Derby trail. Since the draw, War of Will’s outside post position — he’s expected to break 13th-widest — has stirred plenty of conversation.
Another visit with Casse has the handicapper convinced again.
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“He doesn’t seem to be bothered by that outside post,” Kristufek said. “From my handicapping perspective, for this horse in this race, it’s not something I’m overly concerned about.”
Why’s that?
“He’s a big, tall, long-striding kind of horse that doesn’t want to get stuck inside anyway,” Kristufek said. “I think with his tactical speed he should fall into an OK trip. Even if he gets hung three wide in the first turn and three wide on the back stretch, you saw what he did in the Lecomte. He’s good enough to overcome that. I think he’s a really, really nice horse.”
So, the 5-2 morning line favorite will top Kristufek’s Risen Star tickets. Maybe it’s a bit begrudgingly after this incident…
But we digress.
Kristufek shared his other main selections with us in order of preference:
2. Country House (20-1)
“All you’ve got to do is go back and watch, if you didn’t see the race live, go back and watch that replay,” he said of the Bill Mott trainee’s Jan. 17 maiden special weight win at Gulfstream Park. “He lost 12 lengths at the start. It was a slow pace. He was five-wide on the turn, and this horse won under a hand ride. That was impressive, and that horse belongs here. I think there’s a good chance he could go off as the second or third choice.”
3. Hog Creek Hustle (8-1)
“He ran great in the Lecomte,” Kristufek said of that race’s runner-up. “He just happened to run into War of Will. I was skeptical. Maybe he wasn’t a two-turn horse, but he ran great.”
4. Gun It (10-1)
“He’s the huge wildcard,” Kristufek said, with the $2.6 million yearling expected to draw in and assume the outside gate. “Seeing how immature he was in his last race — and even when he won the race before he was really green — if (Steve) Asmussen runs him from that post, it tells me something. If you just look at horses by potential, he’s in the upper echelon of this field for sure.”
RELATED: Free Risen Star Stakes past performances
Derby links
• The weekend’s other prep, the El Camino Real Derby, attracted a similarly large field in California, where handicapper Reinier Macatangay likes King of Speed to rally for a mild upset.
• Oaklawn Park passed along an updated list of Southwest Stakes probables ahead of Monday’s race in Arkansas. Entries will be taken Friday.
• Gun It, mentioned above, may be turning the corner, his connections say, with our latest Derby Radar feature honing in on the member of Horse of the Year Gun Runner’s family.
In case you missed it…
Wednesday’s Derby Daily report featured Country House, who by all accounts does not appear the 20-1 Risen Star longshot reflected on the morning line.