Kentucky Derby 2019 Daily: Improbable's 'game plan' forming
Welcome to Horse Racing Nation’s Kentucky Derby Daily, which will each day leading up to the May 4 race at Churchill Downs detail all the news and notes related to contenders in one convenient space.
A “game plan” is in the works for WinStar’s leading 2019 Kentucky Derby prospect Improbable, said Sean Tugel, WinStar’s assistant racing manager and director of bloodstock services. The City Zip colt has been working consistently with trainer Bob Baffert toward his 3-year-old debut and first prep race of the year.
“He’s doing really well,” Tugel said this week. “Had a really nice work there. He’ll have two races into the Derby.”
Improbable is one of many Derby hopefuls in Baffert’s stable, but along with champion Game Winner, one of just two who are unbeaten with a Grade 1 win. A chestnut colt with a white blaze, Improbable has brought about comparisons to Justify, especially given that he’s co-owned by China Horse Club and Starlight Racing.
Baffert is likely to separate his top 3-year-olds before the first Saturday in May, which would mean keeping Improbable away from Game Winner, the last out winner of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile.
“Right now I’m going to nominate my horses everywhere, and whoever’s doing great that week runs in that race,” the Hall of Fame trainer said recently.
Connections were happy with Improbable’s latest work last Friday at Santa Anita. The City Zip colt drilled a bullet five furlongs in 58.40 in his fifth drill back since winning the Dec. 8 Los Alamitos Futurity (G1) by five lengths.
WinStar, China Horse Club and SF Racing have a definite Derby prep entry this Saturday in the Sam F. Davis Stakes (G3) at Tampa Bay Downs, which awards points on a 10-4-2-1 scale. Five Star General, trained by Arnaud Delacour, will make his first appearance on the Derby trail.
The Distorted Humor colt, a homebred for WinStar, broke his maiden at Laurel Park going a mile before taking the Central Park Stakes at Aqueduct at the same distance. Both races were originally scheduled for the turf but moved to the main track.
WinStar is also partnered with Sagamore Farm on Global Campaign, a half-brother to multiple Grade 1 winner Bolt d’Oro. The Curlin colt is entered Saturday for a first-level allowance race at Gulfstream Park. He debuted Jan. 5 in a seven-furlong maiden special weight at the South Florida track, drawing off by 5 3/4 lengths.
Trainer Stanley Hough had Global Campaign pointing for last weekend’s Swale Stakes (G3) but a foot issue coming out of a breeze prevented him from running. The colt has since returned to the work tab with a five-furlong bullet Sunday in 1:00.40.
WinStar, China Horse Club and SF Racing also campaign Preamble, who returned to trainer Rodolphe Brisset about three weeks ago. He’s expected to have his first breeze back in two weeks. The Speightstown colt won both of his starts as a 2-year-old but, unlike his WinStar counterparts, isn’t nominated to the Triple Crown.
Sam F. Davis set
Nine others, led by Grade 1 winner Knicks Go, will join the aforementioned Five Star General in Saturday’s Grade 3, $250,000 Sam F. Davis. It’s the lone points-paying prep of the weekend going 1 1/16 miles at Tampa Bay Downs.
Get to know the field with our early Sam F. Davis odds and analysis.
• That’s not all on the Sam F. Davis. HRN’s Laurie Ross and Ashley Tamulonis also teamed up for their latest “Head to Head” handicapping feature with their Top 4 picks now available.
• Thursday in Dubai, a race with potential Derby ramifications resulted in an upset. Walking Thunder is no longer unbeaten, while Thunder Snow’s connections have a new colt who could target a trip to Churchill Downs. See the Derby Radar report.
• Our Derby Scouting Report series continues with a look at the best of the Midwest, where all the big names are readying for penultimate prep races. Read up on the leaders, plus some of the lesser known horses to watch.
In case you missed it…
Wednesday’s Derby Daily report examined early Triple Crown nominations, listing some of the big names who apparently won’t be pointed toward the spring classics.