Kentucky Derby 2019 Daily: How many points will it take?

Welcome to Horse Racing Nation’s Kentucky Derby Daily, which will each day leading up to the May 4 race at Churchill Downs detail all the news and notes related to contenders in one convenient space.

The Kentucky Derby 2019 trail kicks into another gear Saturday with the Grade 2, $400,000 Risen Star Stakes beginning the “Championship Series” of races awarding 50 or more points to the winner.

At this stage — with a few remaining exceptions — it’s win and you’re in.

Seven races through the March 24 Sunland Derby (G3) pay out points on a 50-20-10-5 scale, while the seven major preps starting with the March 23 Louisiana Derby (G2) award the Top 4 finishers on a 100-40-20-10 basis.

Naturally, you can expect some runners to sweep consecutive final preps, and those will shape up as the top Derby choices. Since the points era began in 2013, the race winner hasn’t lost as a 3-year-old, after all.

For the rest, how many points will it take, and which prep runners going into Saturday are already well-positioned to make the gate?

The final Derby entrant’s average points total over six years of the system has been 23.8. The last three years, however, the average jumped to 30.3 as horsemen figure this system out. Additionally, spots in the gate could be taken this year should a horse for the first time come from the Japanese or European roads to the Derby.

So, no longer may 30 be enough. Connections to the best horses — and usually that correlates to higher points totals — won’t have anything to worry about.

Here’s a look at points standings of years past and the contenders already in the Top 20 at this point in their seasons:

2018 Final Leaderboard

1. Magnum Moon (150), 2. Good Magic (134), 3. Audible (110, $803,520), 4. Noble Indy (110, $640,000), 5. Vino Rosso (107), 6. Bolt d’Oro (104), 7. Enticed (103), 8. Mendelssohn (100, $1,947,299), 9. Justify (100, $600,000), 10. Flameaway (70), 11. Solomini (54, $716,000), 12. Bravazo (54, $359,913), 13. My Boy Jack (52, $622,000), 14. Promises Fulfilled (52, $266,480), 15. Free Drop Billy (44), 16. Lone Sailor (42), 17. Hofburg (40), 18. Firenze Fire (39), 19. Combatant (32), 20. Instilled Regard (29) and AE 21. Blended Citizen (22).

Eleven Derby contenders in the Top 20 leaving “Prep Season”: Good Magic, Bolt d’Oro, Free Drop Billy, Solimini, Firenze Fire, Instilled Regard, Enticed, Flameaway, Audible, Combatant and Bravazo.

2017 Final Leaderboard

1. Girvin (150), 2. Classic Empire (132), 3. Gormley (125), 4. Irap (113), 5. Irish War Cry (110), 6. Thunder Snow-IRE (100, $1,621,063), 7. Always Dreaming (100, $589,000), 8. Gunnevera (84), 9. Practical Joke (74), 10. J Boys Echo (63), 11. State of Honor (62), 12. Tapwrit (54), 13. Hence (50, $401,429), 14. Fast and Accurate (50, $320,712), 15. McCraken (40, $385,048), 16. Battle of Midway (40, $224,000), 17. Patch (40, $200,000), 18. Untrapped (34), 19. Lookin At Lee (32), 20. Sonneteer (30, $236,000), AE 21. Royal Mo (30, $213,000) and AE 22. Master Plan (20).

Eight Derby contenders in the Top 20 leaving “Prep Season”: Classic Empire, McCraken, Gormley, Gunnevera, Practical Joke, Lookin At Lee, Irish War Cry and Irap.

2016 Final Leaderboard

1. Gun Runner (151), 2. Nyquist (130), 3. Exaggerator (126), 4. Outwork (120), 5. Brody’s Cause (114), 6. Creator (110), 7. Lani (100), 8. Mor Spirit (84), 9. Mohaymen (80), 10. Danzing Candy (60), 11. Destin (51), 12. Suddenbreakingnews (50, $637,000), 13. Oscar Nominated (50, 321,360), 14. Shagaf (50, $270,000), 15. Whitmore (44, $400,000), 16. Tom’s Ready (44, $270,670), 17. My Man Sam (40, $200,000), 18. Majesto (40, $190,000, $239,500), 19. Trojan Nation (40, $190,000, $213,290), 20. Mo Tom (32, $268,326), AE 21. Laoban (32, $142,000) and AE 22. Cherry Wine (25, $145,000).

Seven Derby contenders in the Top 20 leaving “Prep Season”: Nyquist, Mor Spirit, Mohaymen, Exaggerator, Brody’s Cause, Mo Tom and Suddenbreakingnews.

2015 Final Leaderboard

1. International Star (171), 2. Dortmund (170), 3. Carpe Diem (164), 4. American Pharoah (160), 5. Frosted (113), 6. Mubtaahij-IRE (100, $1,400,000), 7. Materiality (100, $632,028), 8. El Kabeir (95), 9. Upstart (76), 10. Far Right (62), 11. Itsaknockout (60), 12. Firing Line (58), 13. Danzig Moon (45), 14. War Story (44), 15. Tencendur (41), 16. Stanford (40), 17. Mr. Z (34), 18. Ocho Ocho Ocho (30, $760,250), 19. Bolo (30, $214,980), 20. Keen Ice (22), AE 21. Frammento (20) and AE 22. Tale of Verve (0).

Eleven Derby contenders in the Top 20 leaving “Prep Season”: El Kabeir, Far Right, International Star, Dortmund, Upstart, Carpe Diem, Mr. Z, Ocho Ocho Occho, American Pharoah, Frosted and Firing Line.

2014 Final Leaderboard

1. California Chrome (150), 2. Vicar’s in Trouble (120), 3. Dance With Fate (108), 4. Wicked Strong (102), 5. Samraat (100, $640,000), 6. Danza (100, $620,000), 7. Hoppertunity (95), 8. Intense Holiday (93), 9. Wildcat Red (90), 10. We Miss Artie (60), 11. Ride On Curlin (55), 12. Chitu (54), 13. Tapiture (52), 14. General a Rod (40, $240,000), 15. Medal Count (40, $226,500), 16. Candy Boy (30), 17. Uncle Sigh (24), 18. Vinceremos (20, $191,666), 19. Harry’s Holiday (20, $152,622), 20. Commanding Curve (20, $104,000) and AE 21. Pablo Del Monte (20, $102,000). 

Six Derby contenders in the Top 20 leaving “Prep Season”: Tapiture, We Miss Artie, Candy Boy, Samraat, Vicar’s In Trouble and Dance With Fate.

2013 Final Leaderboard

1. Orb (150, $840,000), 2. Verrazano (150, $810,000), 3. Goldencents (129), 4. Java’s War (122), 5. Overanalyze (110, $908,381), 6. Revolutionary (110, $720,000), 7. Lines of Battle (100), 8. Vyjack (70), 9. Will Take Charge (60), 10. Itsmyluckyday (50, $593,600), 11. Black Onyx (50, $317,130), 12. Palace Malice (50, $200,000), 13. Normandy Invasion (44, $258,000), 14. Frac Daddy (44, $240,596), 15. Mylute (42), 16. Oxbow (36), 17. Falling Sky (30), 18. Charming Kitten (20), 19. Golden Soul (14), 20. Giant Finish (10) and AE 21. Fear the Kitten (6).

Seven Derby contenders in the Top 20 leaving “Prep Season”: Goldencents, Oxbow, Itsmyluckyday, Overanalyze, Will Take Charge, Falling Sky and Revolutionary.