Kentucky Derby Daily: Courtney’s Fountain of Youth selections
Welcome to Horse Racing Nation’s Kentucky Derby Daily, which will each day leading up to the May 4 race at Churchill Downs detail all the news and notes related to contenders in one convenient space.
Gulfstream Park racing analyst Acacia Courtney has poured over the past performances and afternoon form of Saturday’s Grade 2, $400,000 Fountain of Youth contenders. But a benefit of basing in Florida is getting to see many of these Kentucky Derby 2019 hopefuls during the morning hours, too.
That insight, plus the Fountain of Youth’s 1 1/16-mile setup, played key roles in Courtney’s handicapping, of which she was kind enough to share this week.
“The distance is a really important piece of this,” she said. “Being 3-year-olds, a lot of them are going to be going two turns for the first time. As younger, inexperienced horses, they might be keen and make the pace a little bit faster.
“If you remember last year, we saw Promises Fulfilled send and run away from the rest of the field. I can’t imagine a similar pace scenario this year.”
1. Hidden Scroll (9-5)
“He’s only making his second start, he’s going into graded stakes company, and he’s never raced on a fast main track before,” she said. “Those are big questions there for him. That being said, I’ve been watching him train, and I got to speak with trainer Bill Mott the other day. He said Hidden Scroll has been training exceptionally on a fast main track.”
2. Global Campaign (10-1)
“One of the horses I’m really, really intrigued by is Global Campaign,” Courtney said. “I’m using him underneath. He’s 2-for-2 with both his races here at Gulfstream. The figure did not come out all that fast from his last allowance win, but he did also get a win at a mile and a sixteenth…He’s a horse that looks like he just has a world of talent — really impressive stride.”
3. Bourbon War (10-1)
“One horse who I think is going to benefit from sitting a trip is Bourbon War,” she said. “He’s had some adversity to overcome in his last few starts. He definitely had a troubled trip first time out. He was against the bias in the Remsen. Last time out, he had a win at this distance and over this track. He has that advantage in his corner, which many of the others do not.”
4. Code of Honor (6-1)
“He looks like the wildcard to the rail,” Courtney said. "He disappointed in the Mucho Macho Man as the favorite last time out, but I can’t imagine Shug McGaughey putting a horse like this into graded stakes company after a layoff if he didn’t feel like he was coming into this race in top form. Probably will have to show some speed from the inside post, though.”
The two most obvious omissions from her list? Signalman and Vekoma, the Fountain of Youth pair with previous graded stakes wins.
Courtney said she’s taking a “wait-and-see” approach with Signlaman given trainer Kenny McPeek’s recent comments emphasizing this race is only a prep for bigger targets like Keeneland’s Blue Grass (G2) and the Kentucky Derby.
“I have no negatives to say about Vekoma,” she added. “He is coming in off a layoff, and the question with him is going this distance for the first time. He’s never gone two turns before.
“…I do still think he’s green, and I’ve been seeing that in his works as well. I’m hoping for a little more maturity. He worked in company two works back with Breaking Lucky, who gave a sort of average effort in the Hal’s Hope last weekend. For what it’s worth, he out-worked Breaking Lucky. The biggest thing for Vekoma is having to go that extra distance.”
Courtney added that she won’t be playing horses running back from the Holy Bull (G2), the most-recent Derby prep at Gulfstream. That includes Everfast and Epic Dreamer.
“I’d need to see those prove it to me one more time,” she said.
Derby links
• Is this the year? Trainer Bill Mott says his approaches to the Kentucky Derby are improving, and Hidden Scroll could qualify to be the barn’s ninth Derby runner in the Fountain of Youth.
• Mott has another colt to keep an eye on after Grade 1-placed Mucho returned a winner Friday at Gulfstream Park. See the replay on our Derby Radar.
• A day after disclosing Instagrand will ship out for the Gotham Stakes, trainer Jerry Hollendorfer further explained the decision, which keeps the unbeaten runner around one turn.
• Pedigree analyst Laurie Ross takes a look at four recent names who have stepped forward toward the Derby, asking the big question: Will they get the distance?
In case you missed it…
Thursday’s Derby Daily report featured background on Global Campaign with insight from Hunter Rankin, president of Sagamore Farm.