Kentucky Derby 2019 Daily: Country House is no 20-1 shot

Welcome to Horse Racing Nation’s Kentucky Derby Daily, which will each day leading up to the May 4 race at Churchill Downs detail all the news and notes related to contenders in one convenient space.

Country House is listed at 20-1 on the morning line, making him the second-longest shot in the Grade 2, $400,000 Risen Star Stakes field. But based upon some handicappers’ early opinions, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him dip to be the second-shortest price on the board by post time for Saturday’s 2019 Kentucky Derby prep.

Count Mike Shutty, author of Horse Racing Nation’s Super Screener handicapping system, among the Bill Mott trainee’s backers. Shutty lists Country House as his lone “A” horse — meaning use him in all vertical and horizontal wagers — of the 14 set to run at Fair Grounds.

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“He was super impressive in breaking his maiden last out, as he was last of six after breaking slow and six lengths behind a pace in which they were just walking up front,” Shutty said. “Not only did he overcome the poor start and dawdling pace, but he produced a rare Brisnet Late Pace figure of 123 as he just dominated that anemic field and galloped out with energy.

“Country House can actually improve off that effort, and he is going to be better with more ground. Strictly the one to beat and offers value.”

The question is, how much? Lecomte Stakes (G3) winner War of Will should go favored, but beyond that it’s a fairly wide-open betting race on paper.

Country House, by Lookin At Lucky, broke his maiden Jan. 17 at Gulfstream Park in the race Shutty discussed above. The colt veered from the inside post position toward the rail under Luis Saez, who rode patiently to get his horse back into the race. Country House went from six lengths back at the first call to 3 1/2 in front at the wire of a 1 1/16-mile race.

Two starts ago, only Kentucky Wildcat, who ran a credible race to be second in last weekend’s Sam F. Davis Stakes (G3), beat Country House, who was ninth on debut in October. But…

“He didn’t look too interested when we ran him first time on the turf,” said Guinness McFadden, who co-owns Country House with Mrs. J.V. Shields and LNJ Foxwoods. “But he had definitely trained well on dirt. He looked like a dirt horse early on and seemed to get over the dirt nicely.”

Saez will make the trip to ride Country House again in the Risen Star, breaking from the No. 9 post. Shutty, in his Super Screener race analysis, considered the draw a major advantage for his top selection given those in stalls 11-14 — War of Will’s among them — could be compromised by a short run up to the first turn.

“You just hope that he’s competitive and that he can get better going over a mile,” McFadden said. “We’re pretty pumped. Running here was Bill’s call. He had been training well and seemed to be moving forward so this seemed to be the next step.

"Bill’s a great trainer and we’ll keep doing what he suggests. We’re really happy with where we are right now.”

Derby links

• The Coliseum experiment is over, at least for now. The Daily Racing Form reports he's out of training following the San Vicente Stakes (G2), with trainer Bob Baffert saying, "I’m going to reboot him -- kick him out for 30 days."

• With the Risen Star set and El Camino Real Derby drawing Wednesday afternoon, the Southwest Stakes (G3) is next. Our Derby Radar runs down the probables, with a notable California shipper on the list.

• The Pressbox's Gene McLean unveiled his first Top 20 Kentucky Derby rankings this week along with a list of horses to watch -- plus some input from yours truly. Be sure to give it a read.

In case you missed it...

Tuesday's Derby Daily report featured Henley's Joy, a turf-to-dirt Risen Star contender who's getting his shot on the trail.