Kentucky Derby 2018 Daily: Who's already in the field?

Welcome to Horse Racing Nation’s Kentucky Derby Daily, which will each day leading up to the May 5 race at Churchill Downs detail all the news and notes related to contenders in one convenient space.

A controversial call in the San Felipe Stakes, an upset winner in the Tampa Bay Derby and a bounce-back victory in the Gotham Stakes will give us plenty to digest in the coming days.

But let’s get right to it: After Saturday’s races, who can count themselves in the 2018 Kentucky Derby?

We previously calculated that the average points total of the last horse in the field since the new system began in 2013 was 22.8. Take away the first year — connections were still figuring things out — and that number rises to 26.

Since then, Churchill Downs has also added separate series of Derby qualifiers in Europe and Japan, which could further drive up the minimum. And you can always count on either setbacks to the horses, or some colts deemed not quite ready for 1 1/4 miles despite earning the points, so it’s a moving target.

For now, here’s who we consider probable for the Kentucky Derby based on points:

1. Bolt d’Oro (64)

2. Enticed (63)

3. Bravazo (54)

4. Promises Fulfilled (52)

5. Quip (50)

6. McKinzie (40)

7. Good Magic (34)

8. Flameaway (30)

9. Firenze Fire (29)

10. An invitation should be pending to connections of a Japanese runner whose connections are interested in the Derby.

11. One race remains on Europe’s Derby trail. We’ve got more on that situation below.

For recaps of Saturday’s races, with repays…

• McKinzie disqualified, Bolt d’Oro awarded San Felipe win

• No joke: Quip upsets in the Tampa Bay Derby

• Enticed rebounds, wins Aqueduct’s Gotham Stakes

Interesting next steps for Euro winners

There’s still one stop left on Europe’s road to the Derby, but neither of this week’s penultimate winner, Gronkowski nor Mendelssohn, is expected to remain in that series for their final prep.

Rather, Gronkowski will ship directly to the United States to contend, likely in Keeneland’s Blue Grass Stakes, with Aqueduct’s Grade 2 Wood Memorial an option. Mendelssohn, the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf winner, will go in the UAE Derby at Meydan.

In doing so, both horses will need to win or place to earn a spot at Churchill Downs, as the European points won’t carry over to the domestic series.

Or, as a fall back option, one of the two could perhaps be invited to run in the Derby should the winner of the final Eurpean prep, the March 30 Burradon at Newcastle, decline. The race runs over synthetic and may not attract Triple Crown nominees. The Burradon winner earns 30 points, with 12 to second place.

Gronkowski’s trainer, Jeremy Noseda, provided some insight on his camp’s thinking in an interview with the Racing Post.

"The easy way to go would be to go to the next race in England,” Noseda said, “but in trying to win the real race you have got to do a real preparation and get him on American dirt and get him to race on American dirt to know where you are.

"As much as there is an easy route there, if you really want to achieve the big prize the prep race on dirt in America is key…There's no point thinking you are legitimate. You have to find out beforehand and a proper Derby trial in America will tell us.

“If we are, the points won't be a problem.”

Derby links

• Looking ahead to Sunday, it’s all about Justify and whether he can duplicate a massive debut effort going two turns in allowance company. Then? Trainer Bob Baffert said he’d like to try the colt in one of the major Kentucky Derby preps before he potentially tests that pesky curse of Apollo on the first Saturday in May.

• Reride, an impressive winner of the $100,000 Mine That Bird Derby last month, won’t return to New Mexico for the Grade 3 Sunland Derby, a race in which he would have been considered a favorite. Rather, the Daily Racing Form reports, trainer Steve Asmussen will ship for the UAE Derby, as “the timing of this race suits him, and he travels well.” 

• HRN pedigree ace Laurie Ross evaluated last weekend’s big Kentucky Derby trail winner, Promises Fulfilled. Her takeaway on the son of Shackleford: “This lovely Chestnut colt has plenty going for him, but his pedigree and running style indicate that he may not handle 1 1/4 miles.”

The works

Audible — The second work back from this Todd Pletcher trainee’s win in the Grade 2 Holy Bull went in 1:00.99 (3/12) for five furlongs at Palm Beach Downs. He’s training straight up to the March 31 Florida Derby, and as more weeks pass, his victory last out continues to look quite impressive.

Greyvitos — Having missed time due to knee chip removal in both legs, he’ll need to build fitness, but should have some left from back-to-back stakes wins to end 2017. Drills have stretched now to five furlongs, which he got in an easy 1:04.20 (28/29) at Del Mar. He is nominated to the Arkansas Derby, while Churchill Downs lists the colt as possible for the Lexington Stakes. Both run April 14.

Hollywood Star — Fourth last out in the Grade 3 Sam F. Davis, he posted a work afterward on turf but returned to dirt for his last two breezes. On Saturday at Gulfstream Park, he clicked through six furlongs in 1:14.21 (1/3) for trainer Dale Romans, who hasn’t named a next spot for the son of Malibu Moon.

Magnum Moon — Along with Justify, this Pletcher charge measures up as the top 3-year-old not to race as a juvenile. Out of an allowance win, he’s pointing to next weekend’s Rebel Stakes at Oaklawn Park with a final tuneup of 5/8 in a bullet 1:00.79 at Palm Beach Downs.

Noble Indy — Third in the Risen Star, and likely to head back to Fair Grounds for the March 24 Louisiana Derby, another of Pletcher’s highly regarded colts finished up his five furlongs Saturday in 1:01.39 (7/12) to round out the barn’s Derby trail workers at Palm Beach Downs.

The Tabulator — This guy won the first 2018 Kentucky Derby prep, Churchill’s Grade 3 Iroquois, but wasn’t nominated to the Triple Crown after running fifth in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. It’s worth noting he just got back to work Saturday with three furlongs at trainer Larry Rivelli’s Hawthorne base in 36.60 seconds.

Solomini — Off since hitting the wire first, but disqualified, in the Grade 1 Los Alamitos Futurity in December, he’s also Rebel Stakes-bound and went smoothly in his final drill toward the race. For trainer Bob Baffert, the Curlin colt traveled through 5/8 in 59 seconds flat, the bullet of 81 workers at Santa Anita.

In case you missed it…

Catch up with all the latest Derby news by reading past editions of HRN’s Derby Daily report.