Kentucky Derby 2018 Daily: When will the winner emerge?

Welcome to Horse Racing Nation’s Kentucky Derby Daily — proudly sponsored by NYRA Bets — which will each day leading up to the May 5 race at Churchill Downs detail all the news and notes related to contenders in one convenient space.

By Jonathan Lintner

We’ve reached a lull on the 2018 Kentucky Derby trail, with some three weeks separating the bulk of January’s preps with more major days on the calendar coming in early February. And in the time between, we’ll be keeping an eye on potential maiden or allowance-level winners emerging on the trail.

Which comes to Saturday’s focus: When do eventual Derby winners typically first make a name for themselves? Going back 10 years, the dates vary — but with just a few exceptions, they had pundits thinking Derby by this point in the year. That bodes well for the big horses we’re already covering on a day-to-day basis.

• Always Dreaming (2017): In his third start, the Bodemeister colt followed a five-month layoff by breaking his maiden with an 11 1/2-length victory Jan. 25 at Tampa Bay Downs.

• Nyquist (2016): Off a debut victory — and with the same connections of 2012 Derby winner I’ll Have Another — he rolled to a 5 1/4-length win in the Grade 2 Best Pal on Aug. 8 at Del Mar.

• American Pharoah (2015): A puzzling fifth first out, he broke through in his second start to win the Grade 1 Del Mar Futurity going away by 4 3/4 lengths on Sept. 3.

• California Chrome (2014) Heavily raced, and highly inconsistent, he started a run of six straight victories that ended in the Belmont Stakes by taking the Dec. 22 King Glorious stakes in state-bred company.

• Orb (2013): It was until Jan. 26 that he beat winners in an allowance race at Gulfstream. The margins were never eye-popping. Arguably, he wasn’t a Derby player until his March 30 Florida Derby victory.

• I’ll Have Another (2012) — He followed a runner-up in the Best Pal with a sixth in the Grade 1 Hopeful. It was until the Feb. 4 Robert B. Lewis that he ran again, and he never lost another race.

• Animal Kingdom (2011): The Derby marked his first start on dirt, and the March 26 Spiral Stakes at Turfway Park was his first victory over winners. That said, he was a 2-year-old to watch with a second-out maiden win during Keeneland’s Fall Meet.

• Super Saver (2010): Early observers had this one pegged on Sept. 11 when he rolled to a seven-length lead in a maiden special weight event at Belmont Park. He backed up that performance by winning the Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes later as a juvenile.

• Mine That Bird (2009): The 50-1 winner wasn’t viewed as much of a Derby contender until his shocking victory on the first Saturday in May. But he couldn’t be ignored as a hopeful after winning Woodbine’s Grade 3 Grey Stakes on Oct. 5, which propelled him to a Breeders’ Cup Juvenile start.

• Big Brown (2008): He was special right out of the box, breaking his maiden by 11 1/4 lengths in a Sept. 3 debut at Saratoga. The hype only built from there.

When Kentucky Derby winners emerged

On that note…

Again, no points-paying preps, but we saw a few runners emerge Saturday, looking like they deserve a Derby trail start next out. Check back here later as Saturday’s races, including Golden Gate Fields’ California Derby, are completed.

Choo Choo, an even-money favorite, hit the lead at the top of the stretch and out-lasted rivals to win the $100,000 California Derby at Golden Gate Fields, which next in its series of stakes for 3-year-olds stages the Grade 3 El Camino Real Derby, a points-paying prep.

Gleason: A first-time starter for Todd Pletcher, he left the gate at 1-1 in Tampa Bay Downs 7th. Stalking another firster, Getyourmindright, through fractions of 21.91 and 44.89, Gleason took to the front confidently and finished seven furlongs in 1:23.60, 5 1/2 lengths in front. He’s a $220,000 Algorithms colt.

Lombo: This Michael Pender trainee emerged a winner in Santa Anita’s 2nd, a maiden special weight event anticipated as a coming out for Bob Baffert-trained Show Time Rocket and Mask. Show Time Rocket faded to third after setting the early pace. Mask showed little.

Retirement Fund: While not as impressive as stablemate Principe Guilherme was in moving to 2-for-2 with a Fair Grounds allowance, this Steve Asmussen trainee was never challenged  Saturday. A week later, yes, but this race ran at the same 1 mile and 70 yards as the Grade 3 Lecomte. Retirement Fund finished in 1:43.05. Instilled Regard won the Lecomte in 1:42.59.

World of Trouble: It’s hard to believe this one started in the maiden claiming ranks. He won Tampa Bay Downs’ $125,000 Pasco, a prelude to the Sam F. Davis and Tampa Bay Derby, for fun at 4-5 odds while just missing the track record. The final margin was 13 3/4 lengths. He’s looking like a pure bargain at $10,000. Jason Servis trains him.

Next on the docket

Feb. 3

Grade 3 Withers Stakes (Aqueduct)

Grade 2 Holy Bull (Gulfstream Park)

Grade 3 Swale Stakes (Gulfstream Park)*

Grade 3 Robert B. Lewis Stakes (Santa Anita Park)

Feb. 10

Grade 3 Sam F. Davis Stakes (Tampa Bay Downs)

Grade 2 San Vicente Stakes (Santa Anita Park)*

Feb. 17

Grade 2 Risen Star Stakes (Fair Grounds)

Grade 3 El Camino Real Derby (Golden Gate Fields)

Feb. 19

Grade 3 Southwest Stakes (Oaklawn Park)

* = not a points-paying prep but likely to include Derby prospects.

Saturday’s top workers

Avery Island — A likely favorite for the Withers, he has posted a trio of strong works back at the Palm Meadows Training Center, with Saturday’s drill timed at 1:00.75 (4/31) for 5/8 of a mile.

Free Drop Billy/Hollywood Star — Dale Romans hasn’t declared this duo for specific races yet, but they too are on a consistent schedule coming out of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. Hollywood Star went the five furlongs in 1:0025 (2/40) with Free Drop Billy getting it in 1:01.04 (11/40).

Tiz Mischief — We’ll separate this Romans horse from the others, as the close Kentucky Jockey Club runner-up is ticketed for the Holy Bull next out. With this his big work, he got the bullet for 5/8 at Gulfstream, going in 59.86.

Marconi — Nominations for the Withers will confirm it, but this dominant maiden winner at 1 1/8 miles could go next in the Feb. 3 race. He posted his second work back from the victory at Belmont Park, drilling 5/8 in 1:02.66 (7/14).

Strike Power — He of the 102 Beyer in a smashing debut around one turn continued on with a third workout back toward the Swale, moving five furlongs Saturday in 1:01.02 (9/40) at Gulfstream.

Untamed Domain — Trainer Graham Motion says a start on dirt is possible next out for the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf runner-up. He continued to train on the main track Saturday, clocking five furlongs in 1:02.40 (19/31) at the Palm Meadows Training Center.

In case you missed it…

We’ve covered many Todd Pletcher standouts in this space, but one deserving of an update — Montauk — got it in Friday’s Derby Daily report. He’s raced just once and is already the fifth Las Vegas choice.

• Catch up with all the latest Derby news by reading past editions of HRN’s Derby Daily report.