Kentucky Derby 2018 Daily: What you need to know about points

Welcome to Horse Racing Nation’s Kentucky Derby Daily, which will each day leading up to the May 5 race at Churchill Downs detail all the news and notes related to contenders in one convenient space.

Saturday’s Grade 2, $400,000 Risen Star Stakes marks the first “Championship Series” race on the 2018 Kentucky Derby trail — essentially put up/shut up time for the tens of hopefuls we’ve discussed for months now.

With points paying out on a 50-20-10-5 scale to the Top 4 finishers, here’s a look at what has been necessary to get in the gate on the first Saturday in May since a new era of Derby qualifying began five years ago.

We owe a nod to Churchill Downs spokesman Darren Rogers for the numbers — and keep in mind some higher points earners didn’t run in each renewal due to injury and other circumstances, which can be anticipated on some level each year.

The takeaway: The final Derby entrant’s average points total over the five years is 22.80. But if you subtract first year — connections hadn’t totally figured out the new system — that number rises to 26. Earnings in non-restricted stakes are the tiebreaker. The roads to the Derby through Japan and Europe could also take a pair of spots, meaning 26 is by no means a magic number.

2017 Final Leaderboard

1. Girvin (150), 2. Classic Empire (132), 3. Gormley (125), 4. Irap (113), 5. Irish War Cry (110), 6. Thunder Snow-IRE (100, $1,621,063), 7. Always Dreaming (100, $589,000), 8. Gunnevera (84), 9. Practical Joke (74), 10. J Boys Echo (63), 11. State of Honor (62), 12. Tapwrit (54), 13. Hence (50, $401,429), 14. Fast and Accurate (50, $320,712), 15. McCraken (40, $385,048), 16. Battle of Midway (40, $224,000), 17. Patch (40, $200,000), 18. Untrapped (34), 19. Lookin At Lee (32), 20. Sonneteer (30, $236,000), AE 21. Royal Mo (30, $213,000) and AE 22. Master Plan (20).

Eight Derby contenders in the Top 20 leaving “Prep Season”: Classic Empire, McCraken, Gormley, Gunnevera, Practical Joke, Lookin At Lee, Irish War Cry and Irap.

2016 Final Leaderboard

1. Gun Runner (151), 2. Nyquist (130), 3. Exaggerator (126), 4. Outwork (120), 5. Brody’s Cause (114), 6. Creator (110), 7. Lani (100), 8. Mor Spirit (84), 9. Mohaymen (80), 10. Danzing Candy (60), 11. Destin (51), 12. Suddenbreakingnews (50, $637,000), 13. Oscar Nominated (50, 321,360), 14. Shagaf (50, $270,000), 15. Whitmore (44, $400,000), 16. Tom’s Ready (44, $270,670), 17. My Man Sam (40, $200,000), 18. Majesto (40, $190,000, $239,500), 19. Trojan Nation (40, $190,000, $213,290), 20. Mo Tom (32, $268,326), AE 21. Laoban (32, $142,000) and AE 22. Cherry Wine (25, $145,000).

Seven Derby contenders in the Top 20 leaving “Prep Season”: Nyquist, Mor Spirit, Mohaymen, Exaggerator, Brody’s Cause, Mo Tom and Suddenbreakingnews.

2015 Final Leaderboard

1. International Star (171), 2. Dortmund (170), 3. Carpe Diem (164), 4. American Pharoah (160), 5. Frosted (113), 6. Mubtaahij-IRE (100, $1,400,000), 7. Materiality (100, $632,028), 8. El Kabeir (95), 9. Upstart (76), 10. Far Right (62), 11. Itsaknockout (60), 12. Firing Line (58), 13. Danzig Moon (45), 14. War Story (44), 15. Tencendur (41), 16. Stanford (40), 17. Mr. Z (34), 18. Ocho Ocho Ocho (30, $760,250), 19. Bolo (30, $214,980), 20. Keen Ice (22), AE 21. Frammento (20) and AE 22. Tale of Verve (0).

Eleven Derby contenders in the Top 20 leaving “Prep Season”: El Kabeir, Far Right, International Star, Dortmund, Upstart, Carpe Diem, Mr. Z, Ocho Ocho Occho, American Pharoah, Frosted and Firing Line.

2014 Final Leaderboard

1. California Chrome (150), 2. Vicar’s in Trouble (120), 3. Dance With Fate (108), 4. Wicked Strong (102), 5. Samraat (100, $640,000), 6. Danza (100, $620,000), 7. Hoppertunity (95), 8. Intense Holiday (93), 9. Wildcat Red (90), 10. We Miss Artie (60), 11. Ride On Curlin (55), 12. Chitu (54), 13. Tapiture (52), 14. General a Rod (40, $240,000), 15. Medal Count (40, $226,500), 16. Candy Boy (30), 17. Uncle Sigh (24), 18. Vinceremos (20, $191,666), 19. Harry’s Holiday (20, $152,622), 20. Commanding Curve (20, $104,000) and AE 21. Pablo Del Monte (20, $102,000). 

Six Derby contenders in the Top 20 leaving “Prep Season”: Tapiture, We Miss Artie, Candy Boy, Samraat, Vicar’s In Trouble and Dance With Fate.

2013 Final Leaderboard

1. Orb (150, $840,000), 2. Verrazano (150, $810,000), 3. Goldencents (129), 4. Java’s War (122), 5. Overanalyze (110, $908,381), 6. Revolutionary (110, $720,000), 7. Lines of Battle (100), 8. Vyjack (70), 9. Will Take Charge (60), 10. Itsmyluckyday (50, $593,600), 11. Black Onyx (50, $317,130), 12. Palace Malice (50, $200,000), 13. Normandy Invasion (44, $258,000), 14. Frac Daddy (44, $240,596), 15. Mylute (42), 16. Oxbow (36), 17. Falling Sky (30), 18. Charming Kitten (20), 19. Golden Soul (14), 20. Giant Finish (10) and AE 21. Fear the Kitten (6).

Seven Derby contenders in the Top 20 leaving “Prep Season”: Goldencents, Oxbow, Itsmyluckyday, Overanalyze, Will Take Charge, Falling Sky and Revolutionary.

By the numbers

Per a Friday dispatch from Churchill Downs, some interesting Derby stats to know…

• Trainer Todd Pletcher is seeking to become the seventh trainer to win the Derby in back-to-back years.

• Who knew? Medaglia d’Oro — sire of Bolt d’Oro and Enticed, among others on the trail — has yet to have a son start in the Derby.

• The last six Derby winners have all entered the first Saturday in May unbeaten as a 3-year-old.

• Always Dreaming was the third Derby winner in the last 50 years to win his first race in the month of January. Among those who fit that profile in 2018 are Magnum Moon and Ax Man.

• The curse of Apollo — you know, that the Derby winner hasn’t gone un-raced as a juvenile since 1882 — is likely to continue. Adding to Magnum Moon and Ax Man, the likes of Exlamation Point, a half to Classic Empire, as well as Life’s a Parlay, Telekinesis and Tenfold could threaten it.

The works

Beautiful Shot — Third in Del Mar’s Grade 3 Bob Hope last November, he was beaten only by Greyvitos and Mourinho, both horses that have backed those runs up since. For trainer Keith Desormeaux, he’s posted three works back this year, going 5/8 Saturday in 1:00.80 (9/57) at Santa Anita Park.

Good Magic — Continuing his preparations for the March 3 Fountain of Youth, the 2-year-old champ breezed five furlongs in company with Economic Model at the Palm Meadows training center. His drill ranked 3/20.

Marconi — It’s unknown what’s next for this Todd Pletcher trainee after a third-place finish in the Grade 3 Withers, but he has moved South to Florida after working up to his last start in New York. Saturday’s first work back went in 49.69 seconds (6/16) at Palm Beach Downs.

McKinzie — He went from maintenance drill last week to bullet breeze on Saturday, getting six furlongs at Santa Anita Park in 1:12.60. It’s unknown where we’ll see him next.

Promises Fulfilled — Third in the Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club, he’s remained on a consistent schedule after trainer Dale Romans freshened him up in December. The son of Romans-trained Shackleford moved 5/8 in 1:00.34 (5/37) at Gulfstream Park.

Restoring Hope — We’ll see this one, a talented maiden winner from the Baffert barn, next out on the Derby trail. He has two works back from the Feb. 2 win, with Saturday’s 6/8 in an easy 1:16.00 (13/18).

Solomini — With his next start unannounced, the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile runner-up has drilled three consecutive weeks after a high temperature temporarily halted his training. He would seem on course for either the March 10 San Felipe or March 17 Rebel with five furlongs in a bullet 59.40 seconds at Santa Anita.

Strike Power — Unbeaten in two starts, he’ll either go around one turn next in the March 10 Gotham or two in the Fountain of Youth. Saturday’s first work back from a victory in the grade 3 Swale Stakes went in 1:00.87 for 5/8 (9/37).

In case you missed it

Friday’s Derby Daily report included some links of note, including more on promising allowance winner Magnum Moon and an update on Faversham, California Chrome’s full brother running Monday.

• Catch up with all the latest Derby news by reading past editions of HRN’s Derby Daily report.