Kentucky Derby 2018 Daily: Trainers on Bolt d’Oro vs. Justify

Welcome to Horse Racing Nation’s Kentucky Derby Daily, which will each day leading up to the May 5 race at Churchill Downs detail all the news and notes related to contenders in one convenient space.

Three years ago, before American Pharoah left Santa Anita Park for his try at the Kentucky Derby, Mick Ruis remembers telling his son, “I’ve never seen a horse move more fluidly than American Pharoah.”

Now on Saturday, the owner and trainer of top 2018 Kentucky Derby hopeful Bolt d’Oro will match up against a colt that reminds him of the Triple Crown champ.

“You look at Justify — he’s about as smooth as you want in a horse,” Ruis said. “He hasn’t done anything wrong. I’m actually going into this like, we’re the underdog here again.”

Trainer Bob Baffert added Justify to the mix for the Grade 1, $1 million Santa Anita Derby this week following discovery of an injury to McKinzie, who was originally supposed to represent his barn.

Ruis and Baffert led off an NTRA media teleconference Tuesday talking about the big horses.

“I think it’ll be a good gauge to see where we’re at with this horse,” said Baffert, whose Justify didn’t debut until February, but is 2-for-2 with wins by a combined 16 lengths. “They’re going a mile and an eighth — they’re going farther now — so we should find out how he stacks up against top 3 year olds.”

Justify needs a win or runner-up finish in his stakes debut to move on to Churchill Downs, whereas Bolt d’Oro secured the needed points last out when placed atop the Grade 2 San Felipe Stakes by stewards.

“We could not have him coming back out of that race any better,” Ruis said. “I think he’s never been training better than he has since we got him from the farm.”

This will mark the second race off a layoff for Bolt d’Oro, who won multiple Grade 1 races at age 2 and garnered championship consideration. Though the colt was beaten narrowly across the wire by McKinzie in the San Felipe, Ruis has said his horse would be “fully cranked” for the Santa Anita Derby.

“He’s sat off a horse. He’s gone to the lead,” Baffert said of Justify. “We don’t know that much about him. He’s only had those two starts, and the horse is still learning.”

The Hall of Famer added, “I’m sure he’s not going to be too far off the lead. I think the break is the key.”

Overflow field for the Blue Grass

With 14 horses plus an also-eligible contender in for Saturday’s Grade 2, $1 million Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland, trainer Dale Romans summed up the draw: "You worry about getting too far outside," he said,” and if you’re too far inside, you can be hindered by rival horses.

Romans was pleased with his charges’ draws — Tiz Mischief from the 9 hole and Free Drop Billy from the 10 — but others weren’t so fortunate. The favorite, Good Magic, will go from post 11, and Flameaway, another of the top choices, got the 12.

The field size, however, remains fluid with Machismo and Marconi also candidates to run in the Grade 2 Wood Memorial. That draws Wednesday along with the Santa Anita Derby.

• For more, check out our full-field Blue Grass Stakes analysis.

Audible grades out strongly

Audible’s 107 Brisnet Speed Rating from the Grade 1 Florida Derby not only ranked best among this year’s Kentucky Derby prep races, but tied second for second-fastest among any prep since the points system was introduced for the 2013 running.

Only Classic Empire’s 2016 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, which received a 108, measured faster. Audible’s run last Saturday matched the 107 received by Frosted in the 2015 Wood Memorial, then a Grade 1 race.

This via Brisnet.com's Ed DeRosa: “Audible put up big numbers in all categories, becoming just the second three-year-old to post at least a 90 E1 Pace Rating, 100 E2 Pace Rating, 100 Late Pace Rating, and 100 Speed Rating. Promises Fulfilled, who finished last — beaten 35 ¼ lengths by Audible in the Florida Derby, had done it when winning the Fountain of Youth Stakes, but Audible’s numbers were superior in every category.

“...Of course, prep performance does not always coincide with Kentucky Derby performance. Of the four previous horses to have done this in a points race, only Frosted (fourth in 2015 to eventual Triple Crown champion Horse of the Year American Pharoah) hit the board.”

Derby links

• It appears McKinzie is off the Kentucky Derby trail. Bob Baffert updated the colt’s status Tuesday, saying, “The Derby’s a brutal race, and right now I can’t see him making it.” 

• The Wynn Las Vegas provided updated Kentucky Derby odds with McKinzie now off the board. The top-two choices — Justify (6-1) and Bolt d’Oro (8-1) — are set to meet Saturday.

• Churchill Downs’ Kentucky Derby Future Wager Pool 4 runs this Friday through Sunday with eight new names are among the individual interests offered for advanced betting. 

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