Kentucky Derby 2018 Daily: Time to make ‘critical decisions’
Welcome to Horse Racing Nation’s Kentucky Derby Daily, which will each day leading up to the May 5 race at Churchill Downs detail all the news and notes related to contenders in one convenient space.
With the post position draw still to come, of course, Fred Cowgill, sports director at Louisville-based CBS affiliate WLKY, considers his 2018 Kentucky Derby handicapping down to this:
“It seems we have a choice between two groups of talented horses: those who follow a classic progression of races from last year, and those who are trying to make history and are trying to win the most demanding race on the planet with less foundation.”
But with all this year’s Derby preps complete as of Saturday — and a prospective field of 20 assembled — many are buying into the hype of horses like Justify and Magnum Moon, the 1-2 horses in this week’s rankings up against the curse of Apollo. Mendelssohn, at No. 4, is also vying to become the first UAE Derby winner to go on to a victory at Churchill Downs
Can any of those three top more traditional Derby contenders such as Florida Derby winner Audible and Blue Grass Stakes winner Good Magic?
“Magnum Moon's impressive victory in Arkansas, after Justify shot to the top of the Derby list last weekend, suggests the Curse of Apollo is truly in danger of ending this year,” said Paulick Report editor Scott Jagow. “After all, the Cubs and Red Sox did break their curses.”
He added: “I’m still siding with Mendelssohn to take down both of them.”
So there are certainly varying opinions.
“This is one of the best and deepest group of 3-year-olds in recent years,” said BloodHorse’s Alicia Hughes. “Can easily make a case for at least eight horses to win the Derby who wouldn't be a shock at all.”
Adding to those already mentioned are multiple Grade 1 winner Bolt d’Oro, Wood Memorial winner Vino Rosso and Noble Indy, who took the Louisiana Derby last out. Nearly three weeks remain to think it over, but put simply by the Daily Racing Form’s Marty McGee: “Time to start making some critical decisions.”
Especially this year, review the daily training sessions once the official session begins Saturday at Churchill Downs. Video of the works — and analysis — will be available here. Anything to separate contenders with limited starts restricting the sample size.
“Nearly all of the horses in this year's Kentucky Derby are coming into the race off ideal trips and setups,” noted Churchill track announcer Travis Stone. “Magnum Moon is the most recent example. Ultimately, it still feels like the power is in the West, and it'll be Justify's race to lose barring a brutal post position.”
Justify well worth a half million
In terms of what it took to get to the Derby, one of the more remarkable stories in this field belongs to Justify and Vino Rosso. Both were bred by Glennwood Farm’s John Gunther.
When it came time to send Justify to the sales ring, WinStar Farm’s general manager, David Hanley told BloodHorse the colt was one “our partners felt very strongly about having a good shot at buying. Sometimes you get them and sometimes you get outbid. Luckily he fell our way.”
From there, it was all about patience.
"We always thought he would go a classic distance on dirt,” Hanley told BloodHorse. “He was a big horse and as a 2-year-old we gave him a little bit of time.”
That’s been rewarded with three wins in three starts. Justify’s earnings have already amounted to $666,000, above his $500,000 purchase price. Win the Derby, and he’s a sure-fire top stallion prospect to boot.
Derby links
• They’re here! Brisnet released free Kentucky Derby contender past performances Monday for all horses remaining on the leaderboard. Come for the classic PPs; stay for Brisnet’s speed, class and late pace figures that will help with your handicapping.
• In his latest edition of the “Weekend winners, losers and in-betweeners” on the Derby trail, The Pressbox’s Gene McLean focuses on My Boy Jack, who McLean thinks “may be a force to be reckoned with” at Churchill Downs.
• An interview Monday with trainer Kiaran McLaughlin about his Kentucky Oaks filly, Take Charge Paula, revealed Derby contender Enticed will do the bulk of his training in Florida before shipping to Kentucky.
In case you missed it…
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