Kentucky Derby 2018 Daily: The final points crunch is on

Welcome to Horse Racing Nation’s Kentucky Derby Daily, which will each day leading up to the May 5 race at Churchill Downs detail all the news and notes related to contenders in one convenient space.

The 2018 Kentucky Derby’s magic number is on the rise.

Following Saturday’s Grade 1 Florida Derby and Group 2 UAE Derby, 14 horses — 13 of them actual prospects to run May 5 at Churchill Downs — have already accumulated 40 points. That appears the safe minimum with four major preps left awarding 100 points to the winner and 40 to the runner-up.

Of course, it’s likely horses that have already earned points will fill some of those win/place spots. But each time an Audible or Mendelssohn pops up through the final two weeks of qualifiers, spots for horses on the bubble will disappear.

On the other end of things, defections: they happen. News Saturday of a setback that will keep McKinzie out of the Santa Anita Derby could just be the beginning.

Here’s a look at the Top 20 (plus one) leaving Saturday’s races.

1. Audible (110)

2. Noble Indy (110)

3. Mendelssohn (100)

4. Bolt d’Oro (64)

5. Enticed (63)

6. Bravazo (54)

7. Promises Fulfilled (52)

8. Magnum Moon (50)

9. Runaway Ghost (50)

10. Quip (50)

11. Lone Sailor (42)

12. Rayya (40)*

13. McKinzie (40)

14. Hofburg (40)

15. Good Magic (34)

16. Solomini (34)

17. My Boy Jack (32)

18. Flameaway (30)

19. Firenze Fire (29)

20. Gronkowski (in)**

21. Free Drop Billy (24)

* Rayya, a filly, will go to the Baffert barn off her runner-up UAE Derby finish and isn’t considered a Kentucky Derby prospect, which is why we’ve included 21 horses here.

** Gronkowski automatically qualified by clinching the European Derby trail’s bid. According to Churchill Downs, an invitation from the Japan series could still go to either Ruggero or Taiki Ferveur, both beaten soundly by Mendelsson in the UAE Derby.

Florida Derby takeaways

Immediately after Audible hit the wire, trainer Todd Pletcher admitted he was worried when Audible dropped back a bit before the half mile pole, only to start picking off horses into the far turn. This trip followed a more pace-pressing effort last out in the Holy Bull but showed the son of Into Mischief can make his own luck.

Is he on the same level as the West Coast’s top contenders? Possibly. But that’s the fun of the Kentucky Derby: finding the answer as they all come together May 5.

It’s worth noting that runner-up Hofburg, the Bill Mott-trained maiden winner taking a step right into Grade 1 competition, pushed the button just after Audible. From there, through the turn and to the wire, the horses took essentially identical trips, and Audible didn’t much widen the margin. If Hofburg can continue improving, he could shape up as an exotics player in the Kentucky Derby.

And as far as Promises Fulfilled, he’s now in the same category as Bravazo having won a penultimate prep with an ideal pace scenario before underperforming with more pressure on the front end Saturday.

• Check out a full Florida Derby recap and replay.

UAE Derby takeaways

The consensus leaving Mendelssohn’s massive victory at Meydan: This could be the one who reverses thinking that all UAE Derby winners are an automatic toss the first Saturday in May.

The Scat Daddy colt is a half brother to champion Beholder. Breeding, check.

He won the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf three starts back. Travel, check.

And with a 106 Beyer, he’s top of the 3-year-old class on speed. Dirt runner, check.

What could be awaiting at Churchill Downs? A completely different experience, including a high chance that Mendelssohn will have to deal with some dirt in his face for the first time.

Said jockey Ryan Moore: “He’s got a beautiful pedigree, he’s got the form, he races forward and there’s plenty of experience now. But that's a different thing, a hard race with more runners, you can't compare it to today.”

• Check out a full UAE Derby recap and replay.

Derby links

• Regarding the Derby news of the day with McKinzie, it could mean a shuffle of the final prep spots for other Baffert runners. The Daily Racing Form reports that unbeaten Justify could remain in California for the Santa Anita Derby. We’ll find out more on Monday when the barn’s Derby hopefuls work.

• Blended Citizen punched his ticket to next weekend’s Grade 2 Blue Grass Stakes with a work over the track Saturday at Keeneland, where he had trainer Doug O’Neill oozing confidence. As the horse left the track, O’Neill asked jockey Kyle Frey,  “How are you going to spend your $60,000?” — his potential cut from the winner’s share of the purse.

• NBC earned three Emmy nominations for its coverage of the 2017 Kentucky Derby: for Outstanding Social TV Experience, Outstanding Camera Work and Outstanding Short Form Editing. Congrats to the crew, which includes Randy Moss, a voter in our 2018 Kentucky Derby Media Poll.

In case you missed it…

Get the scoop with recent editions of the Derby Daily Report!

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