Kentucky Derby 2018 Daily: Oaklawn's first prep takes shape

Welcome to Horse Racing Nation’s Kentucky Derby Daily, which will each day leading up to the May 5 race at Churchill Downs detail all the news and notes related to contenders in one convenient space. We've got 118 days to go!

By Jonathan Lintner

A full field appears likely as the 2018 Kentucky Derby trail begins in Arkansas.

Oaklawn Park’s media relations manager told HRN highly regarded Churchill Downs turf allowance winner Tap Daddy is probable to enter Monday’s $150,000 Smarty Jones Stakes going a mile -- along with a heavy supporting cast.

The favorite should be Bob Baffert-trained Mourinho, who scratched from Saturday’s Grade 3 Sham Stakes and will ship in from the West Coast. Another to watch, certainly, is Navistar. The Todd Pletcher trainee won a key maiden race last out at Gulfstream Park. Before that, in his debut, he was second to Mask, a dominant winner of last weekend’s Mucho Macho Man Stakes.

The Smarty Jones precedes Oaklawn’s Southwest, Rebel and Arkansas Derby. It has produced five Derby starters in the last 10 years, most recently Mr. Z and Far Right in 2015.

Oaklawn usually attracts runners from Remington Park’s Springboard Mile and should again, including Combatant, a Winchell Thorougbreds-owned colt along with Tap Daddy.

See the prospective field below, and consider that Ebben has an outside draw in the Grade 3 Lecomte at Fair Grounds. Trigger Warning, another entered in the Lecomte, was an also-eligible until news of a scratch will allow him to draw in.

Oaklawn will take entries for the Smarty Jones on Thursday.

Stakes debut ahead for Strike Power

Trainer Mark Hennig’s never had a first-time starter garner as much attention as Strike Power. Then again, he’s never had one register a 102 Beyer Speed Figure and nearly set a track record as the son of Speightstown did Dec. 23 at Gulfstream Park.

The Beyer was second-fastest of any 2-year-old not named Bolt d’Oro.

“I was surprised, because it looked to me like he was doing it rather easily,” Hennig told HRN. “I was a little taken back when I heard the time. These things happen, and they’ve got to duplicate it — run another big race — before we get too pumped up.

Strike Power returned to the work tab last week, with Hennig saying he’s working on the spacing of the colt’s races. A likely target is Gulfstream Park’s Grade 3, $200,000 Swale Stakes at seven furlongs.

Then, the Derby trail’s a possibility.

“He’s out of a Medaglia d’Oro mare, and plenty of Speightstowns stretch out,” Hennig told HRN. “…Anytime you have a 3-year-old that runs well at the end of their 2-year-old year, there’s always going to be a little buzz. You can’t blame anyone for getting it, but I think everyone in the game connected knows you don’t just proclaim you’re there and it happens.

“You’ve still got to make your way in that direction.”

Super Screener says…

Since Saturday, we’ve been revealing tips from HRN’s Super Screener handicapping tool each day here to help find the Derby winner as early as January. To continue:

1. Recent eventual Derby winners started their 3-year-old seasons with a win.

2. Most Derby winners had a three-race foundation as a juvenile and received a break before resuming racing at age 3, coming into the January prep off a layoff or second off the layoff.

We’ll continue rolling out the criteria, then evaluate some current Derby favorites to see who best fits. To get the full booklet packaged nicely into a PDF, use the download below.

The Works

Combatant — Among the mass of Steve Asmussen workers over a sloppy Fair Grounds surface Monday, Combatant ranked 8/14 with a four-furlong breeze in 50.80 seconds. Clearly second-best to Greyvitos as the Springboard Mile favorite, he’ll have the chance to improve in the Smarty Jones.

Firenze Fire — The expected Jerome Stakes favorite put in an easy half mile in 50.88 seconds over the training track at Belmont Park. With the race not expected to draw additional shippers since postponed from New Year’s Day due to cold weather, all contenders will be lacking at least some fitness. Firenze Fire’s other works toward the Jerome were on Dec. 18 and 27.

Principe Guilherme — A tick faster than Combatant, the focus will be on this one’s afternoon performance in the Lecomte on Saturday after open-length wins at the maiden special weight and allowance levels. He was clocked at 50.40 seconds for a half mile.

Snapper Sinclair — The fastest of Asmussen’s contenders targeting upcoming Derby preps, he went in 50.20 seconds toward the City Zip colt’s first start since he was a surprising 12th in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf.

Zing Zang — Out of a two-turn Fair Grounds maiden win, this Tapit colt isn’t known for his speed either in works or races, of which he’s had three and improved with distance. A mile and 70 yards in the Lecomte may not be enough. He breezed in 51.80 seconds.

Derby links

Be sure to read takeaways by other HRN writers coming out of Saturday’s Derby preps: Brian Zipse’s This Week in Racing; Laura Pugh’s Weekend Rewind; and Reinier Macatangay’s pace analysis.

Not to pour water on McKinzie’s effort, but Joe Kristufek, racing analyst for Churchill Downs, noted one behavior exhibited by the colt that didn’t thrill him Saturday. Thoughts?

In case you missed it…

Headlining Sunday’s Derby Daily report were the updated next race plans for Bolt d’Oro, the early favorite who missed a bit of training due to a pulled muscle.