Kentucky Derby 2018 Daily: Servis brothers lending support
Welcome to Horse Racing Nation’s Kentucky Derby Daily, which will each day leading up to the May 5 race at Churchill Downs detail all the news and notes related to contenders in one convenient space.
Earlier this week, trainer John Servis, of Smarty Jones fame, phoned brother Jason Servis ahead of a big Saturday on the 2018 Kentucky Derby trail.
First: “If you go to the Derby,” he told Jason, “we’re coming.” And: “I’m going to try to keep a dry eye.”
Jason Servis was there 14 years ago — has it been that long?! — rooting on Smarty Jones in his Kentucky Derby and Preakness wins, along with the colt’s heartbreaking Belmont Stakes defeat. John would like to return the favor this year at Churchill Downs.
He has horses entered in two of this weekend’s preps, which mark a major step toward qualifying for the Derby. Multiple graded stakes winner Firenze Fire and unbeaten Dialed Operator will go in the Grade 3 Gotham Stakes at Aqueduct, while World of Trouble will head postward in the Grade 2 Tampa Bay Derby.
World of Trouble turned heads as a 13 3/4-length winner of Tampa Bay Downs’ Jan. 20 Pasco Stakes — and in near-track-record time. While the Kantharos colt shows just two works since then, Servis clarified that clockers at the Palm Meadows Training Center haven’t picked up all his breezes.
“Do I wish the race was 7/8 of a mile?” Servis asked. “Yes. But he ran so well over the track, and the time was good. We thought, ‘What the hell?’ We’ll give it a whirl.
“If he hits the board, he’s got a lot of options as far as points.”
In the Gotham, given his earlier performances, Firenze Fire’s likely to make the field at Churchill with a finish on the board in either of his final two preps. Servis was quoted recently calling the colt a “Rodney Dangerfield” type. He can’t get the respect the trainer thinks Firenze Fire deserves.
“I don’t know if it’s because he’s by Poseidon’s Warrior, or a Florida-bred,” he said. “I don’t know. At one point he was 4-for-6, won a stakes at Saratoga as a 2-year-old won a Grade 1. They didn’t even mention him for the Eclipse Awards.”
Firenze Fire has won multiple stakes going a mile, same as the Gotham, and ran second in the Grade 3 Withers at 1 1/8.
“I don’t know what his best distance would be,” Servis said. “I was pleased with the last race at a mile-and-an-eighth. He never quit, and I don’t think he had an ideal trip. He never stopped. He dug in the whole way.
“If he makes it to the Derby, and I think if he’s ridden right, he’ll make the distance.”
Fields line up for the preps
The biggest development Wednesday on the Derby trail? If the track comes up sloppy Saturday at Santa Anita, owner/trainer Mick Ruis told BloodHorse, multiple Grade 1 winner Bolt d’Oro won’t run in the Grade 2 San Felipe, the weekend's other points-paying prep.
Someone should probably pass along the recent Oaklawn Park stable notes that point out the surface in Arkansas went from Feb. 9 to March 2 without rating fast. Not one time. Though if Ruis is chasing a larger purse, the Rebel makes sense.
Anyway, we have all the early odds and full-field analysis available for the preps. Check the Friday Derby Daily for past performances and picks.
San Felipe Stakes | Tampa Bay Derby | Gotham Stakes
Super Screener says…
Last Saturday’s Grade 2 Fountain of Youth marked the end point of what Horse Racing Nation’s Super Screener handicapping tool views as the “early preps.” Audible, who took the Grade 2 Holy Bull, and Fountain of Youth winner Promises Fulfilled both scored 100 percent for their victories under Super Screener author Mike Shutty’s early prep criteria.
Here’s what else we learned:
1. Mask, Flameway and McKinzie round out the Top 5 highest Early Prep Contender scores. With Mask off the trail, Vino Rosso, who arguably submitted the best performance in the Grade 3 Sam F. Davis, is next at No. 6.
2. The Sam F. Davis stakes stood up as one of the top preps over the past two months.
3. Preps running through New York up to this point are coming back pretty weak, as they have over the past few years.
4. Horses that the Super Screener indicates could offer significant value as they move on to their next prep include Vino Rosso, My Boy Jack and Flameaway.
5. Horses that the Super Screener suggests could be vulnerable at a short price in their next preps include Lombo, Firenze Fire, Kanthaka, Strike Power and Promises Fulfilled.
(If you'd like some top-level analysis and wagering guides, the Super Screener is now a weekly product.)
Derby links
• Phoenix Thoroughbreds’ Gronkowski prevailed in Wednesday’s European prep, Kempton Park’s Road to the Kentucky Derby Conditions Stakes. Interesting that the ownership group’s horse named after an American football player runs overseas, whereas Mourinho, who’s named after English Premier League manager Jose Mourinho, races in the United States.
• The next race for Instilled Regard, the Grade 3 Lecomte winner who returned to finish fourth in the Grade 2 Risen Star, could be the Santa Anita Derby, which makes plenty of sense given the colt wouldn’t have to ship this time. Trainer Jerry Hollendorfer told the Daily Racing Form, however, “We’re not carved in stone yet.”
• This week’s HorseCenter video show focuses on the Derby trail and the looming matchup (weather-permitting) between Bolt d’Oro and McKinzie. Join hosts Brian Zipse and Matt Shifman for the half hour program available now.
In case you missed it…
Tuesday’s Derby Daily report featured the eye-catching workout put forth by Justify, who’s only a maiden winner but cold soon make some noise in stakes company.
• Catch up with all the latest Derby news by reading past editions of HRN’s Derby Daily report.