Kentucky Derby 2018 Daily: Projecting who’s in the field

Welcome to Horse Racing Nation’s Kentucky Derby Daily, which will each day leading up to the May 5 race at Churchill Downs detail all the news and notes related to contenders in one convenient space.

Magnum Moon showed he’s the latest colt looking to test the curse of Apollo by winning Saturday’s Grade 2 Rebel Stakes, while Blended Citizen has his connections thinking bigger after a score in the Grade 3 Jeff Ruby Steaks.

Following both 2018 Kentucky Derby trail tests this weekend, it’s looking like it’ll take an above-average number of points to qualify for this year’s running.

We previously calculated that the average points total of the last horse in the field since the new system began in 2013 was 22.8. Take away the first year — connections were still figuring things out — and that average rises to 26.

The highest number required during the points era has been 32 back in 2016. Already, nine horses have eclipsed that minimum with all the major preps still left to run, paying points on a 100-40-20-10 scale to the Top 4 finishers.

Here’s who we consider safely in so far — and given the above information, it’s extremely tentative — for the Kentucky Derby as of now:

1. Bolt d’Oro (64)

2. Enticed (63)

3. Bravazo (54)

4. Promises Fulfilled (52)

5. Magnum Moon (50)

6. Quip (50)

7. McKinzie (40)

8. Good Magic (34)

9. Solomini (34)

10. An invitation should be pending to connections of a Japanese runner whose connections are interested in the Derby.

11. One race remains on Europe’s Derby trail, which will also result in one invitation issued to a runner from that series.

For recaps of Saturday’s races, with repays…

• Magnum Moon launches to big Rebel Stakes win

• Blended Citizen gets up late to win Jeff Ruby Steaks

Louisiana Derby field set

The Top 3 finishers from last month’s Risen Star Stakes (G2) will be joined by Southwest Stakes (G3) winner My Boy Jack in the Grade 2, $1 million Louisiana Derby next Saturday at Fair Grounds. The first prep of the year to award Derby qualifying points on a 100-40-20-10 scale drew early, as the cards often do in New Orleans.

My Boy Jack was installed as a 5-2 morning line favorite in a field of 10 with Risen Star winner Bravazo and Noble Indy the co-7-2 second choices.

Noble Indy finished third in the Risen Star, his stakes debut, and figures to take plenty of money considering My Boy Jack won the Southwest over a muddy Oaklawn track, and Bravazo took the Risen Star by setting a soft pace on the front end. Hyndford, another from the Pletcher barn, appears the only threat of any newcomers to the trail.

The $200,000 purchase Hyndford most recently ran second to Pletcher stablemate Magnum Moon facing winners for the first time. He’s also a candidate for the Grade 3 Sunland Derby on Sunday, March 25.

“He put in a good effort at Tampa behind Magnum Moon and he’s trained well since then,” Pletcher said. “It’s an ambitious jump, but it’s that time of year to find out where we stand.”

Check out full-field Louisiana Derby odds and analysis from HRN’s Christine Oser.

Derby links

• Late Friday afternoon, Godolphin Racing announced Avery Island is off the Kentucky Derby trail. His apparent injury coming out of a workout last week wasn’t revealed, and we weren’t able to get more information from trainer Kiaran McLaughlin. The colt is due for 90 days off.

• Trainer Dale Romans remains plenty high on his winner of the Grade 2 Fountain of Youth Stakes. Promises Fulfilled topped a busy Florida Derby work tab on Saturday with Catholic Boy and Audible also drilling for the March 31 race. We’ve got the full report with video.

• With jockey Miguel Mena out after a Thursday spill at Fair Grounds, Hall of Famers will team up with Bravazo as trainer D. Wayne Lukas gave the assignment back to Gary Stevens. Stevens was ticketed to ride in the Risen Star last out but remained at Oaklawn Park that day. 

• Rodolphe Brisset, the former Bill Mott assistant who won his first stakes last weekend with Quip in the Tampa Bay Derby, said he’s had an “overwhelming” week. And what’s more? For the colt’s last out, “I’m not sure if we had him 100 percent.”

• Also available: a look at Justify’s Saturday gallop.

In case you missed it…

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