Kentucky Derby 2018 Daily: Probables for next week’s preps
Welcome to Horse Racing Nation’s Kentucky Derby Daily, which will each day leading up to the May 5 race at Churchill Downs detail all the news and notes related to contenders in one convenient space.
As the final round of 2018 Kentucky Derby preps continues, it appears an act in avoiding the big horses for many sets of connections looking for the necessary qualifying points to move on to Churchill Downs.
The Derby trail hits its peak next Saturday when in a matter of minutes, each of the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby, Grade 2 Blue Grass Stakes and Grade 2 Wood Memorial will run on a blockbuster weekend for 3-year-old colts.
Here’s a look at the prospective fields in races that all dole out qualifying points to the Top 4 finishers on a 100-40-20-10 basis.
Of the three preps Saturday, this one appears most in flux after the announcement that McKinzie will not run due to a hind leg issue. That could keep potential superstar Justify, another from the Bob Baffert barn, in California rather than on a plane for the April 14 Arkansas Derby.
Already in response to McKinzie’s defection, Mick Ruis, owner and trainer of Bolt d’Oro, has added Orbit Rain as a contender. This is also a key spot for Instilled Regard, the Grade 3 Lecomte winner who came back to run fourth in the Grade 2 Risen Star.
We’ll get the final field when entries are taken Wednesday.
Given the look of this year’s Kentucky Derby trail, only Quip, the Grade 2 Tampa Bay Derby winner, appears fully safe on points entering this one. He very well won’t be the favorite with champion Good Magic using this spot as his second race off the layoff.
Free Drop Billy will use a common path for Dale Romans runners, going from Grade 1 Breeders’ Futurity win to the Blue Grass. Sporting Chance shifts circuits to dodge big horses in the Arkansas Derby, while Flameaway just needs to hit the board to get to the Derby.
This one draws Tuesday.
Owner Ahmed Zayat termed Solomini “90 percent” certain to run here last week. Could that be changing with the Baffert barn’s shifts? He was second in Oaklawn Park’s Rebel Stakes last out, and the Zayats and Baffert have had plenty of success in Arkansas.
If Solomini remains on track for the Wood, he’ll be the likely favorite with Enticed a strong second choice off a victory in the Grade 3 Gotham around one turn at Aqueduct. Firenze Fire, who’s showed up every time on New York’s trail, appears to be regressing but is another who just needs to hit the board.
Entries will be taken Wednesday.
Derby links
• With news that McKinzie’s out of the Santa Anita Derby, we have a new favorite at the Wynn Las Vegas. Get a look at updated Kentucky Derby odds.
• A private clocker declared Bolt d’Oro “right on point” in his final drill Sunday morning for the Santa Anita Derby. We’ve got video and the full report.
• Todd Pletcher reported Audible came out of the Florida Derby in good shape, saying, “You love to see them recover quickly and he certainly did that, so that’s an encouraging sign.”
• Hofburg gave his connections something to think about with a second-place Florida Derby finish. Will he run the first Saturday in May?
• Despite a last-place Florida Derby finish, it’s still on to Churchill Downs for Promises Fulfilled, who fought Strike Power on the front end in the Florida Derby.
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