Kentucky Derby 2018 Daily: Pletcher has ‘decisions to make’

Welcome to Horse Racing Nation’s Kentucky Derby Daily — proudly sponsored by NYRA Bets — which will each day leading up to the May 5 race at Churchill Downs detail all the news and notes related to contenders in one convenient space.

Trainer Todd Pletcher, who last year tied mentor D. Wayne Lukas’ record for all-time Kentucky Derby starters at 48, takes a particular liking to this time of year. Opportunity knocks regularly for aspiring 3-year-olds.

“If there’s not an allowance race, there’s a stakes somewhere,” he said. “We just try to pick them out from a timing perspective and a seasoning perspective and let that determine which direction we go.”

Pletcher has had numerous prospects emerge this month, similar to how Always Dreaming came on the radar with a Jan. 25, 2017, maiden win at Tampa Bay Downs. To name a few:

• Going 1 1/16 miles in a Jan. 11 Gulfstream Park allowance, Noble Indy topped Mississippi, who could graduate to stakes company next out.

• Magnum Moon debuted as a 4 1/2-length maiden winner Jan. 13 at Gulfstream. The next week at Tampa Bay Downs, Pletcher uncorked Gleason, who won by 5 1/2 lengths at Tampa Bay Downs.

• Impact Player ran away with a Jan. 17 Gulfstream allowance by 7 1/4 lengths, his second straight win with blinkers added.

On Saturday, Pletcher will take the next step by sending dominant Aqueduct allowance winner Audible in the Grade 2, $350,000 Holy Bull at Gulfstream Park. In New York, Marconi, a $2 million maiden winner, is set to go in the Grade 3, $250,000 Withers.

“Really, the next start is a key start in terms of firmly establishing themselves on the trail,” Pletcher said.

The trainer considers Vino Rosso, who’s 2-for-2, to be among the horses that are “a little further along.” He’s pointed for the Grade 3, $250,000 Sam F. Davis set for Feb. 10 at Tampa Bay Downs. Also watch for Navistar, who missed a start in Oaklawn Park’s Smarty Jones Stakes due to travel troubles, to reappear soon in allowance company.

Pletcher has a knack for mapping out campaigns that get horses in the gate on the first Saturday in May. Always Dreaming vaulted the future Hall of Famer into elite company as one of 19 trainers with multiple Derby victories. He scored a double last year with Tapwrit the Belmont Stakes winner.

“We’re in a fortunate position,” Pletcher said, “to have some decisions to make on who goes where — that sort of thing — and it’s exciting coming off the Derby and Belmont wins last year.”

Mask suffers a ‘setback’

Mask was one of the biggest movers in our latest Kentucky Derby odds released Wednesday — set by HRN co-founder Mark Midland, inventor of Churchill Downs’ Future Wager — and the colt isn’t headed in the right direction.

A reported “setback” will keep the Chad Brown-trained son of Tapit from running in next month’s Risen Star at Fair Grounds, which was to be his first try around two turns. It sets us up to have a highly regarded Derby prospect with no points forced into deep waters on his first start along the trail.

Mask dropped from 30-1 following his Jan. 6 Mucho Macho Man Stakes victory to 50-1 in the HRN fair odds, which we believe represents a horse’s current true chance of winning on the first Saturday in May.

Who’s in for the weekend?

Draws for each of Saturday’s Derby preps go down tomorrow. See the projected fields, per HRN’s Stakes Tracker:

Holy Bull | Withers | Robert B. Lewis

Holy Bull history

This week, we’ll feature a prep a day to showcase how it has traditionally produced Derby contenders. The Holy Bull appears particularly strong for an early February race over the last 10 years. Going back to 2006, the great Barbaro won it.

Click the chart below for a more detailed history of the Holy Bull.

Derby links

• Firenze Fire, who we noted earlier this week will run back in Saturday’s Grade 3 Withers, will be anything but lightly raced should he make it to the Derby starting gate. Owner Ron Lombardi told The Blood-Horse his colt could hit every leg of New York’s Derby trail, with the March 10 Gotham and April 7 Wood Memorial next. 

• It’s the time of year for Derby lists, and The Pressbox’s Gene McLean has joined in with his own version of “The Derby Dozen.” You aren’t likely to find a top four like his, and it’s refreshing to see someone deviate from the usual names in those spots. 

• Continuing a theme of official beverage changes, Corona Extra (note, the Derby coincides with Cinco de Mayo this year…) and Angry Orchard are now affiliated with the race, replacing Stellar Artois. Earlier, Churchill Downs replaced Pepsi with Coke and added Woodford Reserve as the Derby’s presenting sponsor.

In case you missed it…

Monday’s Derby Daily report featured interviews with Mark Casse and Graham Motion on two turf horses taking varying approaches to the Triple Crown trail, plus a look at a busy work tab.

• Catch up with all the latest Derby news by reading past editions of HRN’s Derby Daily report.