Kentucky Derby 2018 Daily: One on one with Vegas odds maker

Welcome to Horse Racing Nation’s Kentucky Derby Daily — proudly sponsored by NYRA Bets — which will each day leading up to the May 5 race at Churchill Downs detail all the news and notes related to contenders in one convenient space.

LAS VEGAS — Floors above the Wynn Las Vegas’ swanky race and sports book — lined with high-definition terminals, plush seats and more screens than this observer cared to count — is Johnny Avello’s control room.

The Wynn’s executive director of race and sports operations maintains an office strewn with odds, including two sheets listing current prices for the 2018 Kentucky Derby. Other casinos have come on board with Derby futures, but Avello’s odds remain most recognized.

“I have to use what I think their odds are and what I think the customers are thinking,” he said.

So it’s more than suggesting a probability. The odds maker plays to win, too.

“We have to set our limits somewhere, because if we don’t, we could get in deep trouble,” Avello said. “Now with all that being said, the future book hasn’t done well over the last five years.”

• The Wynn Las Vegas' current 2018 Kentucky Derby odds

Wynn favorites have won in three of the last five Derbys. In addition to those who cashed at lower odds are players who had the horse at its opening price, anywhere from 35-1 to 500-1.

Avello debuts the next year’s Derby list in the fall, and he said a gambler can win up to $25,000 on a single wager. More well-known Wynn customers are allowed to go higher.

“Many of the sharp future bettors, if they don’t get close to three figures, like 100-1 or 75-1, they’re not interested,” Avello said.

He remembers 1999 winner Charismatic as one of the best Derby winners — for the Wynn, at least. It’s because the D. Wayne Lukas trainee came on the scene late.

“I’ve got a lot of money in the pot, and I’ve already seen this horse run,” Avello remembered. “He’s certainly a contender, so I’m not as exposed on a horse like that. It’s usually a late bloomer who’s best for me.”

Nearly two decades later, Avello’s cognizant that most any horse from the Bob Baffert barn, or Todd Pletcher, for that matter, will take money even before he makes it to the races.

Bolt d’Oro is the current Wynn favorite, available at 7-1.

“I raised him back to 14-1,” Avello said. “They bet him. I dropped him back down to 7-1. We’re still so far out.”

Bolt d’Oro also debuted as the Wynn’s favorite back in September off his Grade 1 Del Mar Futurity win.

“If guys are betting to win $20,000 on him, and you’ve taken six, seven, eight pops, you’re looking at a $200,000 loss on him, and you’ve still got eight months to go,” Avello said. “I don’t mind that, but I know those bettors will continue to bet.”

Saturday handicapping materials

For the Grade 3, $250,000 Sam F. Davis Stakes:

Picks | Past Performances | Odds and Analysis

For the Grade 2, $200,000 San Vicente Stakes

Picks | Past Performances | Odds and Analysis

Montauk off the trail

Pool 2 of Churchill Downs’ Derby Future Wager opened Friday with some news: the betting is down to 22 individual interests with connections announcing they’ll play the long game with Montauk, who was determined to have a throat issue after a Friday morning breeze.

We spoke with Eclipse Thoroughbred Partners’ Aron Wellman last month, when he said connections knew they had “the goods” in the 11 1/4-length maiden winner. They still believe that, even though the Derby’s now no longer an option.

“We were already on a tight enough schedule as it was, and this will make him miss just enough time to not be ready for the Derby,” Wellman said. “However, by doing what’s best for the horse, we do hope to have a very serious animal on our hands for the second half of the year.”

That has been the route to an Eclipse Award the past two seasons with Arrogate (2016) and West Coast (2017) the two most-recent champion 3-year-old males after skipping the Triple Crown series.

A result of note

Telekinesis, a Mark Casse-trained colt that Stonestreet went to $470,000 for at auction, made a highly anticipated debut Friday, winning a six-furlong maiden special weight event at Fair Grounds. He came on late, too, suggesting the son of Ghostzapper wants more distance. The final time was 1:10.16.

What he also needs, in terms of the Derby, is more time. There still may be enough to him to jump from allowance conditions to the stakes level before the first Saturday in May. This is a horse Casse mentioned to us in early January as he seeks the barn’s successor to Classic Empire.

San Vicente race history

No points are at stake, but it’ll be surprising if we don’t see a runner or two officially hit the trail out of Saturday’s San Vicente. Recent history backs that up, with Nyquist and Exaggerator, the eventual Derby and Preakness winners, the best examples of the seven-furlong race’s graduates. Battle of Midway also used the one-turn race to sharpen up last year.

Get the full history of the San Vicente on our HRN race page.

The works

Ebben — Sixth in the Lecomte, he’s also in the field for next weekend's Grade 2 Risen Star and put in a final half mile in 47.20 seconds, getting the bullet from 108 times recorded Friday at that distance.

Givemeaminit — Having competed four times in graded stakes company without a win, he dropped to the state-bred maiden level last out and dominated. Next: the Risen Star. A final work was timed in 49 flat (30/108) for a half mile at Fair Grounds.

In case you missed it…

Thursday’s Derby Daily report focused on Bolt d’Oro and an apparent change in tactics for one of the early favorites, who continues to work consistently toward his season debut.

• Catch up with all the latest Derby news by reading past editions of HRN’s Derby Daily report.