Kentucky Derby 2018 Daily: Louisiana Derby takeaways

Welcome to Horse Racing Nation’s Kentucky Derby Daily, which will each day leading up to the May 5 race at Churchill Downs detail all the news and notes related to contenders in one convenient space.

I seem to say this every week on the 2018 Kentucky Derby trail but, whoa. There’s a lot to digest from Saturday.

First and third were separated by just 3/4 of a length in the Grade 2, $200,000 Louisiana Derby. Some initial thoughts…

• Winner Noble Indy looked eligible to improve coming out of his last race, and did. He used up energy early, fought jockey John Velazquez up the back stretch and rolled away when set loose. Will the blinkers stay on? Velazquez said his horse didn’t see challengers coming, and that’s why the colt re-rallied to win by a neck.

• A son of Take Charge Indy, Noble Indy won’t be up against the curse of Apollo we’ve detailed in the last week. But he only got to the races in December. Churchill Downs spokesman Darren Rogers noted that dating back to 1914, the only horse to debut that late and win the Derby was Fusaichi Pegasus in 2000.

• I hope we tipped you to Lone Sailor as a live longshot with trainer Tom Amoss saying he'd revert to his old style for this start. Certainly, it’ll be a feel-good story with G M B Racing returning to Churchill Downs in the wake of New Orleans Saints and Pelicans owner Tom Benson’s recent death.

• Speaking of owners…what a spring for WinStar Farm. Elliot Walden and company already qualified Quip through the Tampa Bay Derby. Now they have Noble Indy. New York Central goes in Sunday’s Sunland Derby, Audible returns in next weekend’s Florida Derby and, oh, we’ll see what Justify’s made of in the Arkansas Derby.

• My Boy Jack, with a sweeping outside run, looks like Exaggerator 2.0 — and of course, that’s because he’s a product of the Desormeaux brothers. The third-place Louisiana Derby finisher will be close on qualifying points. But you know he can get the Kentucky Derby distance. As for the trip required to win it, we’ll see.

• Bravazo pulled up on jockey Gary Stevens, creating a story to follow in the coming days. Despite missing the board in the Louisiana Derby, he has the points to make the Kentucky Derby field from his Risen Star Stakes (G2) victory last out. Will he be healthy enough to run?

A look at the points

We previously calculated that the average points total of the last horse in the field since the current era system began in 2013 was 22.8. Take away the first year — connections were still figuring things out — and that average rises to 26.

The highest number required during the points era has been 32 back in 2016. Already, 12 horses have eclipsed that minimum with six major preps (points to the Top 4 at 100-40-20-10) left to run.

Here’s who we consider safely in so far — and given the above information, it’s extremely tentative — for the Kentucky Derby as of now:

1. Noble Indy (110)

2. Bolt d’Oro (64)

3. Enticed (63)

4. Bravazo (54)

5. Promises Fulfilled (52)

6. Magnum Moon (50)

7. Quip (50)

8. Lone Sailor (42)

9. McKinzie (40)

10. Good Magic (34)

11. Solomini (34)

12. My Boy Jack (32)

13. An invitation should be pending to connections of a Japanese runner whose connections are interested in the Derby.

14. One race remains on Europe’s Derby trail, which will also result in one invitation issued to a runner from that series.

Sunland Derby handicapping

Post time is 7:15 p.m. ET for Sunday’s Grade 3, $800,000 Sunland Derby, which awards Kentucky Derby qualifying points on a 50-20-10-5 scale to the Top 4 finishers.

Analysis | Picks | Free Past Performances

Plus…Horse Racing Nation’s Super Screener handicapping system projects two high-priced horses will fill out the exacta.

Sunland Derby history

Given we knew he was real after battles with Dortmund back in 2015, it’s unlikely we’re about to witness another Firing Line in Sunday’s race. He’s the most notable recent alum from New Mexico’s points-paying prep which, notably, didn’t run in 2016 due to a local outbreak of the equine herpesvirus that left Sunland Park under quarantine.

Click the graphic below for more detailed Sunland Derby history.

Derby links

• Promises Fulfilled and Audible topped Saturday’s busy Florida Derby work tab and, courtesy of Gulfstream Park, you can watch both the horses final breezes ahead of the March 31 race.

• Bolt d’Oro, who returns to work Monday, was said to be less than fully cranked as he ran a game second across the wire in his season debut. Feedback from a private clocker backs that up.

• The Daily Racing Form offered updates on two names we discussed plenty early in the year. Principe Guilherme’s resting from bone bruising, while Copper Bullet will race on Kentucky Derby Day, but just around one turn in the Grade 3 Pat Day Mile.

In case you missed it…

Get the scoop with recent editions of the Derby Daily Report!

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