Kentucky Derby 2018 Daily: Is this Pletcher’s best bunch?

Welcome to Horse Racing Nation’s Kentucky Derby Daily, which will each day leading up to the May 5 race at Churchill Downs detail all the news and notes related to contenders in one convenient space.

Todd Pletcher has built a reputation in recent years around his ability to qualify horses for the Kentucky Derby, but not necessarily train the race’s winner. With Always Dreaming wearing roses last year, plus Pletcher’s contingent pointing toward this Derby running, that perception could soon change.

Pletcher’s horses rank Nos. 3, 5, 7 and 8 in a new edition of the 2018 Kentucky Derby Media Poll released Monday — and that’s before Magnum Moon gets his shot to run in the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby. 

“Is it possible for Todd Pletcher to win consecutive Derbys?” asked media poll voter Maggie Wolfendale, of the New York Racing Association. “Starting to feel that way as he will likely have no fewer than four legitimate shots.”

Pletcher matched his former boss, D. Wayne Lukas, with 48 career Derby starters in 2017. The future Hall of Famer will take hold of that record this May 5, now as one of just 19 trainers with multiple victories.

Back in January — before Audible, Vino Rosso, Noble Indy and Magnum Moon were each graded stakes winners — Pletcher hinted at a stacked deck in his barn.

“We’re in a fortunate position,” he told HRN, “to have some decisions to make on who goes where — that sort of thing — and it’s exciting coming off the Derby and Belmont wins last year.”

Another Derby poll voter, HRN’s Matt Shifman, said he considers Pletcher’s charges “the strongest group in his career that includes the winners of three out of six 100-point races run thus far.”

That’s Noble Indy in the Louisiana Derby, Audible in the Florida Derby and Vino Rosso in last Saturday’s Wood Memorial.

“Magnum Moon will try get Pletcher a fourth one,” Shifman noted, as the expected favorite at Oaklawn Park.

Other Derby poll takeaways

These comments also stuck out from our voters…

• Daily Racing Form’s Marty McGee: “It always seems like this — until a bomb comes rolling home a winner down the long Churchill Downs lane — but it sure looks like the top half-dozen or so Derby favorites are going to be very tough on the first Saturday in May.”

• TimeformUS’ Craig Milkowski: “The Santa Anita Derby was the best Kentucky Derby points race all year. It was fast and it featured the two best horses in my opinion. Instilled Regard is a good barometer for how good the top two were.”

• Courier Journal’s Jason Frakes: “There's a lot of talk about how strong this crop is at the top, but what of the fact that a colt that was unraced as a 2-year-old and has just one graded stakes race under his belt now looks to be the overwhelming Kentucky Derby favorite?”

Screener says…

Mike Shutty, author of HRN’s Super Screener handicapping system, offered his thoughts on last weekend’s winners.

Justify’s Santa Anita Derby: “What else can you say but ‘wow.’  Both Justify and Bolt d’Oro submitted the best prep performances to date by far. The numbers are coming back huge, as the Santa Anita racing surface was dull on this day, and this pair are clearly at the top of the heap. Justify was left alone on the lead and, with his high cruising speed, that is a dangerous advantage. Bolt d’Oro surprisingly was taken back and then tried to close the gap, but it was in vain. This was a tremendous performance by Justify, who is clearly the most talented horse coming into the Kentucky Derby and looking more and more like a Big Brown type. The lack of experience and the very different conditions he’ll encounter in the Derby are the only concerns.”

Good Magic’s Blue Grass Stakes: “Good Magic progressed slightly forward in his pursuit of a Kentucky Derby win, but the numbers are not coming back impressive. He’ll need a big, big step forward come that first Saturday in May if he is to have any shot at the mighty Pletcher brigade and West Coast-based horses who have risen to the top post their most recent performances. One could now see Good Magic going off at odds of 8-1 or higher in the Kentucky Derby.”

Vino Rosso’s Wood Memorial: “Vino Rosso finally delivered on that potential we saw a few races back and looked far more professional in this race giving Pletcher yet another legitimate Kentucky Derby win contender. This good-looking colt enjoyed a perfect trip running in the clear on the outside from off the fast pace set by Old Time Revival. He then engaged a game Enticed in the stretch making contact a few times but easily put that rival away with a strong gallop out to boot.”

Derby links

• The Kentucky Derby trail’s news of the day also had to do with Pletcher’s contenders as jockeys Javier Castellano and John Velazquez committed to ride two of his trainees. That, in turn, opened up the mount on Bolt d’Oro.

• Firenze Fire is living on the Kentucky Derby bubble. Having run in each of New York’s stops on the trail, the colt is in the current Top 20 but could find himself outside pending results in this weekend’s final preps, the Arkansas Derby and Lexington Stakes.

• Taking a closer look at Justify’s Santa Anita Derby win, HRN’s Reinier Macatangay says the pace scenario leaves room for pause. But how does the ideal trip affect the unbeaten colt when it comes to his Kentucky Derby chances?

In case you missed it…

Get the scoop with recent editions of the Derby Daily Report!

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