Kentucky Derby 2018 Daily: ‘Intriguing’ field coming together
Welcome to Horse Racing Nation’s Kentucky Derby Daily, which will each day leading up to the May 5 race at Churchill Downs detail all the news and notes related to contenders in one convenient space.
Every running of America’s greatest race packs in the story lines. But a special bunch appears lined up for the 2018 Kentucky Derby.
Last weekend’s prep race results only added to it.
“We have an intriguing Derby field coming together, and, barring injuries, it looks as if it might take 40 points to qualify.”
Consider this:
• After Saturday’s Florida Derby, Audible tops the Derby points leader board, and Mendelssohn has people thinking he could stem the tide of UAE Derby winners considered a toss the first Saturday in May. So, maybe it’s not a given one of the West Coast stars will win it.
• Trainer Todd Pletcher has at least three horses in the field. Even if McKinzie defects, we should expect to see Bob Baffert. And D. Wayne Lukas. And Chad Brown. After Hofburg ran second in the Florida Derby, Bill Mott, too.
• Solomini should be headed to Churchill Downs, too, in those blue and yellow silks donned famously by American Pharoah in 2015. We don’t know yet what kind of contender this colt is, but he’ll take money.
• The “curse of Apollo” — you know, it’s been since 1882 that a horse who didn’t race at age 2 won the Derby — is in serious danger. Justify, who we’ll go into more below, is one threat. Rebel Stakes (G2) winner Magnum Moon is the other.
• Lone Sailor’s late run for second in the Louisiana Derby brings G M B Racing back to the Derby for an ownership group that recently lost its patriarch, New Orleans Saints and Pelicans owner Tom Benson. The colt carries the legacy.
• Oh, and there’s a Derby contender named Gronkowski. Enough said.
Added the Daily Racing Form’s Marty McGee who, as with Rogers, has seen his fair share of races under the Twin Spires: “Another great Derby is just around the bend.”
Busy morning for the Baffert barn
With Bob Baffert back from the Dubai World Cup, the Hall of Fame trainer on Monday observed his Kentucky Derby prospects in their latest works. The contingent was short one with McKinzie’s chances of making the Kentucky Derby “not looking good.”
So, what did we learn?
Just out-worked multiple Grade 1 winner Hoppertunity and earned the right to take on Bolt d’Oro in Saturday’s Santa Anita Derby.
"He did it with aplomb,” said private clocker Andy Harrington. “He does everything they ask and he does it effortlessly. He’s like a big kid who’s just learning how to run…There’s really no telling how good he is.”
Bruno De Julio, another clocker, added his thoughts on the drill:
With Justify remaining in California, Solomini will still ship out, but not to the Wood Memorial as previously anticipated. Rather, he’s bound for the April 14 Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn Park. It’s instead Restoring Hope, a Feb. 2 maiden winner, who will represent Baffert in New York.
Super Screener says…
Mike Shutty, author of Horse Racing Nation’s Super Screener handicapping system, evaluates the winners of last weekend’s preps…
On Florida Derby winner Audible: “Of all the preps run in January and February, the Super Screener rated Audible’s Holy Bull win as the top early prep performance. He received a perfect Super Screener score of 100 as he met all the criteria of prior Kentucky Derby winners and the handicapping patterns they had shown in their early preps. He validated that early praise with a scintillating win Saturday. Audible did get the perfect pace setup, but this horse is tactical and John Velazquez just anticipated the Promises Fulfilled-Strike Power battle that created a suicidal pace. Had the pace been slower, Audible would have sat closer to lead. He won’t be knocked for taking advantage of the swift and pressured pace here. He laid out a ton of energy in a very balanced way and he is coming into the Kentucky Derby in top form with more upside possible.”
On UAE Derby winner Mendelssohn: “It doesn’t matter that the competition was weak and the racing surface favored speed. That performance stood out on its own. There has been bullishness before regarding horses exiting this race but they came with the usual doubts as well. In this case, however, Mendelssohn is coming into the Kentucky Derby the right way. He shipped to the U.S. to win the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf; he has foundation; and he is bred to run on dirt. He has two preps now coming into the Kentucky Derby; he was pointed to this race since last Fall. He is a legitimate Kentucky Derby win contender and, like Audible, he is tactical, so he can press or come from off the pace. Still has to overcome that long ship in, but Mendelssohn has done it before with success, so it’s not as much of an issue with this $3 million colt trained by Aidan O’Brien.”
Derby links
• We now have an explanation for Catholic Boy’s fourth-place Florida Derby finish in a race that seemed set up for the closer. According to the colt’s racing manager, the horse bled and is due for time off.
• Ahead of Tuesday’s draw for the Grade 2 Blue Grass Stakes, Keeneland updated its prospective look at the field, which now includes two Doug O’Neill runners.
• HRN’s Reinier Macatangay took a deeper dive into the Florida Derby pace duel and what it means for Promises Fulfilled moving on to the Kentucky Derby.
In case you missed it…
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